Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 In these kind of winters...its extremely hard to get that break you need 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ji said: In these kind of winters...its extremely hard to get that break you need We've set up camp in the valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We've set up camp in the valley But one day (hopefully soon) one day...one day...we setup on the snowy mountaintop! I've seeeeeeeeen the.......(okay I'll stop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 It sounds like DT (WxRisk) is about to throw in the towel on winter is his new "This Week in Weather" video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: It sounds like DT (WxRisk) is about to throw in the towel on winter is his new "This Week in Weather" video. Bad Euro/EPS run? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 0z EPS says move on to other things for the next 2 weeks if you want snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: It sounds like DT (WxRisk) is about to throw in the towel on winter is his new "This Week in Weather" video. I was getting ready to watch it, but I guess I won’t bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The victoria mode +PDO is probably what screwed us over for the winter. I was a little worried from before winter started when the warm blob wasn't moving east. It is in the wrong spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 check out the GFS with the most incredible clipper of all time at the end of the run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Am I seeing it wrong or is the 6z GFS actually a good look for this Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Steve25 said: Am I seeing it wrong or is the 6z GFS actually a good look for this Saturday? Good look if you like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Nevermind. I was looking on a site that doesn't show precip type. It had the 540 line and 0 line southeast of us during the precip, figured that result in snow. I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: check out the GFS with the most incredible clipper of all time at the end of the run lol It will trend north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Nevermind. I was looking on a site that doesn't show precip type. It had the 540 line and 0 line southeast of us during the precip, figured that result in snow. I guess not. ULL gets way too far north, as does the low that develops near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 45 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: The victoria mode +PDO is probably what screwed us over for the winter. I was a little worried from before winter started when the warm blob wasn't moving east. It is in the wrong spot. His video was good but I think he made more of the VM than it is. We’ve had very cold -EPO winters in a VM pattern. 2014 was one. I even think the example map he used to compare a VM to a PDO that was 2014 on the left. Lol The mjo spiking so high into warm phases in the core of winter was a bigger deal. But again that’s an effect not a pure cause. But we can see the same effect we get in most warm winters where the mjo goes ape into warm phases and can barely sniff cold ones. That warm pool in the north pac has little to do with that. The energy released from the tropics is several magnitudes greater than water in the north pac. The configuration of the mid latitudes was all wrong to transport heat into the high latitudes and disrupt the PV this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 36 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It will trend north And become a frontal passage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Not much to sugar coat this morning...this is pretty depressing for mid-winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Second week in Feb (7th-14th give or take a day or two) is the next shot at a brief but very favorable pattern. Probably the best I've seen hinted at in long while. Yeah, we know the usual caveats 2 weeks out etc etc but this one is gaining some legs. I've also said beware the Great VD Storm of 2020. NAO finally goes negative, PNA goes positive, AO neutral to slight neg, ns disturbances become a parade, some hints of energy undercutting the PNA. As we get into the 2nd half of winter past few years some of the HL blocking looks in the LR have seemed to actually verify moreso than earlier in the season. If the NAO, AO, and PNA come together as I think is being signaled on ens and weeklies and the MJO doesnt spoil the fun, we should have an ok 7-10 day stretch at the very least. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Also wrt the mjo...it wouldn’t matter much if it managed to sneak into 8 at low amp as the wave dies for 1-2 days. The fact that it went to 3 stdv in phase 4/5 then dies as it reaches cold phases is the important thing. A strong wave in the MC will have done the dirty work ushering in an awful pattern. It will take an equally strong influence to counteract that. If the mjo continues to go strong through warm and weak through cold phases that’s a loss. Plus there is some feedback circular nature to it. When the mjo is working in symmetry with the other influences that cause the typical phase 8 central pac wave (central/west based nino) we see the canonical pattern. But when the mjo is out of sync with the background state the response is often muted some even when it’s in cold phases. We see the same in reverse in good years. A weak wave into warm phases isn’t usually a death sentence to winter after a strong cold phase wave. If we are in a cold base state a weak mjo wave won’t always derail that. The good news is with the mjo looking to be a weak influence ahead if we do get a change in other factors it won’t be counteracting that. But the mjo alone isn’t going to save us. We need either the central pac pattern or the high latitude one to flip and it’s apparent those are being driven by more than just the MJO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 First time all season the NAO is showing signs of negative and for more than a day or two across all ens means after 300. Yeah caveats, unicorn chasing, and all other disclaimers apply. Most optimistic I've felt this year. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: First time all season the NAO is showing signs of negative and for more than a day or two across all ens means after 300. Yeah caveats, unicorn chasing, and all other disclaimers apply. Most optimistic I've felt this year. I know everyone wants a fluffy cold powder dump ASAP, but at this rate if we can just get 2 weeks worth of “real winter” in February, I’m ok with that (sort of). Ralph—takes us to the promised land! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Ya don't say...thoughts? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 I guess it should come as no surprise that when DCA ends January with BN snowfall for the season, chances of reaching normal snowfall are slim. In the last 30 years, it's only happened once....2014-2015 where AN snowfall in both February and March saved us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, snowfan said: I guess it should come as no surprise that when DCA ends January with BN snowfall for the season, chances of reaching normal snowfall are slim. In the last 30 years, it's only happened once....2014-2015 where AN snowfall in both February and March saved us. DCA chances of above mean snowfall is only about 30% any year. So it’s not shocking that tossing 2/3 of winter doesn’t help the odds. It’s very rare for DC to beat avg without it being one of the rare anomaly winters like 1996/2003/2010/2014. Typically DCA either finishes way above avg or below. What DC should be hunting for is to get to hear a median winter which is about 10” and happens much more often with a bad start in non great wintes. That’s a more realistic goal imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 59 minutes ago, LP08 said: Not much to sugar coat this morning...this is pretty depressing for mid-winter. That is impressively futile. If there isn't any chance of snow I'm rooting for way AN temps so we can at least enjoy the outdoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 58 minutes ago, LP08 said: Not much to sugar coat this morning...this is pretty depressing for mid-winter. I’d laugh twice at this if I could. Of course nobody will acknowledge how wrong the same model snow output chart was /will be from just two days ago. Totally useless product. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: strong wave in the MC will have done the dirty work ushering in an awful pattern. + IOD link still ? Webb in one post said it was over and then in another post a week later says we are still feeling the effects. I think it is a general distribution of ocean SSTs mostly in the Pac. You mentioned them all weeks ago, no need to re-hash. The bottom line though beyond all drivers and influences on the pattern for us is the general warmth and increasing temps and difficulty to achieve any sustained winter weather in the East for any length of time. You can take that to even a national scope too. I am beginning to grow accustomed of very little snow. The more I read and see on a global scale weather-wise the more I think our snow climo is changing. All of that does not mean it will never snow and never get extremely cold again, ( 17 degrees here this morning ) but I am more so referring to sustained cold and a real 4 to 6 week winter pattern setting in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: DCA chances of above mean snowfall is only about 30% any year. So it’s not shocking that tossing 2/3 of winter doesn’t help the odds. It’s very rare for DC to beat avg without it being one of the rare anomaly winters like 1996/2003/2010/2014. Typically DCA either finishes way above avg or below. What DC should be hunting for is to get to hear a median winter which is about 10” and happens much more often with a bad start in non great wintes. That’s a more realistic goal imo. Notice how that's literally every 6-7 years (except 2014)...lol (and wait, DCA didn't beat average in 2016? Did they not get as much as BWI?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Notice how that's literally every 6-7 years (except 2014)...lol (and wait, DCA didn't beat average in 2016? Did they not get as much as BWI?) DCA almost never gets as much as BWI even though I think BWI is usually on the low side. DCA measurements are always super low, and I think their measurement for the 2016 blizzard was laughably low in comparison to surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Notice how that's literally every 6-7 years (except 2014)...lol (and wait, DCA didn't beat average in 2016? Did they not get as much as BWI?) They did...I didn’t include every example. I would say 2015 and 2016 were the rare cases where DC beat avg without an otherwise epic winter. Although the pattern in 2016 was pretty awesome just didn’t live up to potential imo. 2015 was a true lucky result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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