Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The @Bob Chill storm is this weekend’s rainer on steroids. Mercy no...we cannot have both of these storms rain. Because I'm telling you...I don't trust February this year. Nobody is talking about any kind of good pattern for next month...(and ya hear more about it NOT happening). And what psu mentioned a few weeks ago (and how often we DON'T get out of this kind of base stste) And then the Isotherm posts about things not getting right until late February at the earliest...and the usual caveats about Match snow. Nope...I don't trust it. So I'm keying in on both of these...and will remain highly suspect of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 The weekend doesn’t seem to me to be straightforward and simple. Therefore I think it’s foolish to buy into any solution at this point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The weekend doesn’t seem to me to be straightforward and simple. Therefore I think it’s foolish to buy into any solution at this point. Very true...it seems kinda wonky to me. If it were to somehow work out...I wouldn't be surprised if it's not until midweek before we see a trend to a snowy solution, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 37 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The @Bob Chill storm is this weekend’s rainer on steroids. Well, heck...there's even an implied death band (of rain) over MoCo it appears! Fitting, for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The February 3/4th storm looks great for y’all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: The February 3/4th storm looks great for y’all! .......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The weekend doesn’t seem to me to be straightforward and simple. Therefore I think it’s foolish to buy into any solution at this point. Say what? Ji canceled winter for the third time already this month tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Tonight's EURO run must stop the bleeding and improve our snow chances for this weekend. The slp on the GFS this afternoon was pretty jumpy like it was unsure of what it was spitting out. I'll hang my hat on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 It has everything to do with that 500 low. What it’s position is and it’s movements will determine our fate. And right now after about 72 hours that piece of the forecasting is not very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 24 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Tonight's EURO run must stop the bleeding and improve our snow chances for this weekend. The slp on the GFS this afternoon was pretty jumpy like it was unsure of what it was spitting out. I'll hang my hat on that. 18z euro is a bit further south with the ull and flow is a bit flatter on the EC....only thru 90 hours and probably wouldn't be enough to make a huge different but the bleeding temporarily stopped this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 27 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Tonight's EURO run must stop the bleeding and improve our snow chances for this weekend. The slp on the GFS this afternoon was pretty jumpy like it was unsure of what it was spitting out. I'll hang my hat on that. dude we started off bleeding like we just came back from a 14th century war..... 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Should I bother to give a summary of the weeklies? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Should I bother to give a summary of the weeklies?I’m terrified.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Btw wrt the mjo...I don’t think it’s going to save us but I also don’t think it’s going to kill us in Feb. After a brief nudge into 6 (and even that signal is conflicted if you look at the actual convection, it likely goes null. Other factors are likely to drive the bus in Feb imo. Doesn’t mean they will be any better but I suppose they can’t be any worse so there’s that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, anotherman said: I’m terrified.... Lol...they’re actually good I’m just not sure anyone gives a crap. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, anotherman said: I’m terrified.... I heard they look pretty good but after last winter i put no stock in them at all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ji said: dude we started off bleeding like we just came back from a 14th century war..... Why the fourteenth century? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 At least we shouldn't enter spring in a drought so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 The eps weeklies eject the vortex out of AK into central N America. Also weakens the NAM back closer to a workable look. Sets up a gradient pattern but with us on the right side for early to mid February. Best look is probably this week If that’s right that would imply we’re in line for waves and on the right side of the boundary. I know it’s worthless but I suppose it’s slightly better it looks good simply because when it’s an epic disaster that’s when it’s always right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2020 Author Share Posted January 21, 2020 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol...they’re actually good I’m just not sure anyone gives a crap. Truth. Those are second only in usefulness to the snow mean maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Btw wrt the mjo...I don’t think it’s going to save us but I also don’t think it’s going to kill us in Feb. After a brief nudge into 6 (and even that signal is conflicted if you look at the actual convection, it likely goes null. Other factors are likely to drive the bus in Feb imo. Doesn’t mean they will be any better but I suppose they can’t be any worse so there’s that. Yeah, I think this is the correct thinking. Latest roundy maps has the current wave croaking in 7/8. Then they start keying on a kelvin wave in p5. With lots of substance in p6, looks like it will head back towards cod then eventually a wave forms in p1/2. As for the weeklies, we need to get that look inside day 7 for me to believe it. If the AAM relaxes then perhaps typical February nino takes over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The eps weeklies eject the vortex out of AK into central N America. Also weakens the NAM back closer to a workable look. Sets up a gradient pattern but with us on the right side for early to mid February. Best look is probably this week Basing this off the progression of the weeklies, but mostly the behavior of the pv so far this season going back to November, maybe we get a significant inland and coastal plain snow event between the 14th and the 20th of Feb. , total speculation, but interesting things, although brief in nature have occurred bear the 20 th of the month. We simply have been unlucky and this time period may hold the best potential of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 18z WB EPS has about 25 percent of Its members with snow east and north of the mountains for the weekend storm. It is an improvement over 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: If the AAM relaxes then perhaps typical February nino takes over. Speaking of the AAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know it’s worthless but I suppose it’s slightly better it looks good simply because when it’s an epic disaster that’s when it’s always right. Lol. If it shows disaster, it’s right. If it shows good looks, it’s probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Eps mean h5 similar to the op ...a bit more progressive and honestly it's the best overall ull pass to date we've had with this threat . Another positive step No more bleeding yet There will be blood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 500H is north through 84 on the 00z GFS. Would like to see that trending south vs the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 500H is north through 84 on the 00z GFS. Would like to see that trending south vs the other way.There is barely a storm but yea we cant ever get a good trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: 500H is north through 84 on the 00z GFS. Would like to see that trending south vs the other way. There is barely a storm but yea we cant ever get a good trend This is another swing and a miss storm. Even moving away quickly from a high elevation event and morphing into a fropa. Welcome back winter 2018-19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Well we got two swings for this month...this weekend and the Chill storm. After that, man...I think we may need a bit of a miracle. Snow-wise, February ain't been February since 2015, so...hard to trust things changing. But we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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