Ji Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Looks like both Euro and Gfs came in warmer for Wednesday evening/ Thursday am . Only the Ukmet held serve and actually is a nice frozen event but it's on it own .Of course they did. Every time we needed one more good trend it the exact opposite way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 @psuhoffman jb just uncancellled winter. He has zero accountability 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like both Euro and Gfs came in warmer for Wednesday evening/ Thursday am . Only the Ukmet held serve and actually is a nice frozen event but it's on it own . Of course they did. Every time we needed one more good trend it the exact opposite way This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look.Yea I notice eps got pretty cold last night toward mid feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The chart cant hold it 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This should probably be the expectation given the Pacific is garbage and we have a raging +AO/NAO. That being said, we have the law of averages on our side, it's February, and the advertised pattern, while pretty awful, is not a complete shutout look. Yea I notice eps got pretty cold last night toward mid feb Verbatim it looks like a very workable gradient pattern for the MA. Problem is it's in the LR and these decent looks tend to morph into something less favorable as we move closer to reality when we are stuck in an overall crap pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Even though last night's runs sucked, I still think that we will score this month, possibly during the next ten to fifteen days. A small adjustment in the track of the next two or three storms is all we need to get on the right side of things. We've done it before. I like this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 It’s over. Damn it early spring! JI saw his shadow....at the Paper Moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 33 minutes ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman jb just uncancellled winter. He has zero accountability Now we know why things trended wrong then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 40 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Call me the eternal optimist but I could see how we could at least land a decent event between now and the middle of the month. There’s cold nearby. Multiple waves. All it would take is for the boundary to be south of us for one wave. I know it’s unlikely given the trend this winter. I think we’re probably at the height of our skepticism so far this year. Which will make it all the better if we actually can land an event. The window feb 6-14 has been highlighted for over 2 weeks now. It is still a period worth watching but the window isnt as wide open as it once was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 12z runs will be the most important runs of our lives. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 15 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like a possible legit frozen event midweek unfolding. Inside 5 days . Trend across almost all guidance has been colder . Eps ,Gefs, Euro,Gfs,UK all colder . There is a line between eternal optimism and rampant delusion, and I sometimes wonder with you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 This is me just being a bright side guy, but the one thing I enjoy about dud winters is that I know we will make up for it at some point with a big winter. It's just the way things work around here. Some of our worst winters have come directly ahead of or behind some of our most historic winters. To be honest, sometimes I feel like we're still making up for the 2009/2010 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I am not sure why the surprise. First commandment of weather. Thou shall not expect snow until the EURO/EPS is on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 12z runs will be the most important runs of our lives. LOL Snow life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Nam at range... but this look has potential. Front is still in the process of clearing the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 7 hours ago, Ji said: Sunday wave It's going to be there 12z run. Promise. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 How about a Nina next winter ........ Very unwise to talk about such things a year in advance, but I guess it is one option. Not even going to speculate about the implications, unless we get hit with mega clippers and Manitoba Maulers. Some mets are going with another Nino next winter, first I heard about a Nina. However, look at the model that is going in that the direction, the CFSv2, ha ha, that model has hardly any skill at all. It can not predict anything with even remote accuracy. Even at the door step of a new month it crumbles in regards to temps. More interesting to ponder this than look at the current AO progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Yep, anomalies we are looking at , but still, it is remarkable the extent of above average air masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 = I believe anything above a + 5 SD AO in Feb. has only happened five times since 1950 , this run may break +5 and even get close to + 6. There has never been a snowfall in Philly or Southward greater than 6 inches I believe in a regime such as this, at least according to Don S. in a recent update he posted. We all know that as the wave lengths shorten in late Feb we can get more significant snowfalls across the region, but we have a month to go to get there. On a side note, just checked out some coastal SST and is is very warm along the Atlantic surf zone for this time of the year. Some Feb periods have had readings of 35 to 36 degrees F., right now some locals are are at 46 to 49 degrees F. warmer further South. Lack of continuous NW winds, cold air masses, plus less coastal storms might be the reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 hours ago, Ji said: @psuhoffman jb just uncancellled winter. He has zero accountability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 This is still interesting...a big high...we just need better low placement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 GFS op runs have been pretty relentless in signaling a decent HL look starting around D7 and progressing. Ens dont seem to be jumping completely on board yet but it is nice to finally see a HP in SE can locked in for more than 36 hours. Fluke hunting.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 GFS op runs have been pretty relentless in signaling a decent HL look starting around D7 and progressing. Ens dont seem to be jumping completely on board yet but it is nice to finally see a HP in SE can locked in for more than 36 hours. Fluke hunting.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 4 hours ago, PivotPoint said: That’s my wave. The PP storm I'm sorry, but I'm not sure I want any yellow snow...(then again, we're so peeved at the lack of snow we might even take that!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 WB 12Z GEFS...expanded the view because I see it as a positive seeing the mean snow expanding in the Tenn. valley. But still all Day 10 plus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: No signs of meaningful changes in the HL on the ensembles. Our best shot at a more favorable pattern towards the end of the month probably still lies with some changes on the Pacific side- to get the ridge to migrate further east. Given the persistence there all winter, that's not much to hang onto either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 WB 12 EURO at Day 5 is a much different surface map compared to 0Z. The intense Great Lakes low on 0z is replaced with a wave bringing snow to WV...ie much more like an overrunning event. Not sure if we can get a miracle but forecast for the upcoming late week not set in stone yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Potvinsux Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12 EURO at Day 5 is a much different surface map compared to 0Z. The intense Great Lakes low on 0z is replaced with a wave bringing snow to WV...ie much more like an overrunning event. Not sure if we can get a miracle but forecast for the upcoming late week not set in stone yet... Surface map very similar to the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 WB 12Z EURO Day 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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