Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Kidding aside, Isn't this during our two days of a -EPO.....maybe we can get some luck. At least until the 0z EURO squashes any hope of a trend in the good direction for one of these waves along the front. Let's see what EPS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:41 PM, Weather Will said: What is Dr. No doing????? Expand Man! (and it had to show it at Day 7 too, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Ok since I’ve hammered my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:41 PM, Weather Will said: What is Dr. No doing????? Expand wait, what? Is that really from 12z..today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:57 PM, psuhoffman said: Ok since I’ve hammeted my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer. Expand If I get even another inch by the 8th for my birthday, I will call it a winter!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 OP at range but the EURO keeps progressing the ridge in the pacific east. Helps to keep the trough from dumping west. Maybe the ensembles can tease this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 7:01 PM, stormtracker said: wait, what? Is that really from 12z..today? Expand Yes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:41 PM, Weather Will said: What is Dr. No doing????? Expand I am ready to get hurt again. Edit: My bet is on gradual deterioration into a frontal look by the start of the week that allegedly should give us rain to snow, but the snow doesn’t really materialize. That’s a classic setup here, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I don't see much 12Z EPS support for late next week, but hug 38....I won't post the prob. maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Been a terrible year for many seasoned forecasters who forecasted a stone cold turn to cold in early Jan and now talking about March. just way too many unproven indexes with a new one being conjured up each season and uncessful attempts to bundle some and avoid some. We have made astonishing little progress in last 20 years and unfortunately doubling down on what isnt working is not working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 EPS looks ALOT better as we head towards mid Feb. AO dosent looks so severely postive--signs of cross polar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 7:46 PM, losetoa6 said: Yep Control run says winter is here to stay looking at h5. Expand the huge 850 anomolies are gone--just like that. Looks like a workable pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:54 PM, psuhoffman said: It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow. If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat. Expand I would go with the Cascades.. or maybe Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 7:45 PM, Ji said: EPS looks ALOT better as we head towards mid Feb. AO dosent looks so severely postive--signs of cross polar? Expand If it happens we need to send JB a big thank you card for finally throwing in the towel so that we can get winter! Jokes aside I’m skeptical until I see it get within range. The pac forcing remains awful. There will come a time as wavelengths shorten and the PV weakens some that perhaps we have a shot so I guess I’ve not totally given up. I’ll hold onto that little spec of hope and hug it tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Interestingly enough the weekend may not be completely DOA. Looking over the GFS/Euro they look as if they may be hinting at the possibility of an inverted trough running through the region extending back from the departing coastal. This is in response to the NS that I have gone on about on previous posts that is now dropping generally through our region. Though I am not exactly doing back flips when I look at the profile of the atmosphere it is possibly manageable if we can see some half decent rates. And it does come at an opportune time, Saturday night which doesn't hurt. Some elevation would be a big plus as well. And as far as rates the models have generally been juicing up the last couple of runs. Probably wouldn't be talking a broad expanse of precip and any snow would probably be confined to a narrow region where the heaviest band moves through. I could picture some lucky souls getting a coating to an inch and would not be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 7:46 PM, losetoa6 said: Yep Control run says winter is here to stay looking at h5. Expand or not https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/?fbclid=IwAR2bBZK-gwz79aH1I8YeJVbws2bEa1i-F-IAwESHfLDrmEsOET-v2L3qrqA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 8:11 PM, losetoa6 said: Yea ...I was casually mentioning it in the banter thread . Ensembles have hinted at it for day or so now op guidance is showing some qpf . I didn't analyze to deep but I can see now that u mention the inverted trough possibility. Nice catch Expand The 18z NAMs look a little too warm at the surface (mid 30s), but the 850 temps are below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 8:19 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: or not https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/?fbclid=IwAR2bBZK-gwz79aH1I8YeJVbws2bEa1i-F-IAwESHfLDrmEsOET-v2L3qrqA Expand What does that have to do with the euro control run he made that comment about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 8:11 PM, losetoa6 said: Yea ...I was casually mentioning it in the banter thread . Ensembles have hinted at it for day or so now op guidance is showing some qpf . I didn't analyze to deep but I can see now that u mention the inverted trough possibility. Expand Seeing some weak signs of convergence at the lower levels of the atmosphere and we have seen the neg pressure anomalies building back through the region. I will look a little deeper after the overnight runs come out see if there may be anything there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 8:20 PM, Weather Will said: The 18z NAMs look a little too warm at the surface (mid 30s), but the 850 temps are below 32. Expand It's not so much the surface that is the problem its the fact that the warm layer extends up to around 900 mb. That is a deep layer of warmth to over come especially when the dews don't look to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 8:25 PM, showmethesnow said: It's not so much the surface that is the problem its the fact that the warm layer extends up to around 900 mb. That is a deep layer of warmth to over come especially when the dews don't look to cooperate. Expand Ok....I'm learning so this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:41 PM, Weather Will said: What is Dr. No doing????? Expand Dont say I didnt warn you. Dont do it dont let it draw you in. Turn away from the light! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:57 PM, psuhoffman said: Ok since I’ve hammered my pessimism let me say there is still a chance to get one of these waves under us but it will take a lot of luck. I touched on what we need the other day. It’s not a 0 chance but it’s low probability. Maybe even lower then I expected (and I was never that optimistic) now that I try SE ridge is showing its teeth as we get closer. Expand Do you have the 3" percentage map for comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 8:50 PM, Weather Will said: Ok....I'm learning so this map? Expand You can see it on soundings too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 7:34 PM, WEATHER53 said: Been a terrible year for many seasoned forecasters who forecasted a stone cold turn to cold in early Jan and now talking about March. just way too many unproven indexes with a new one being conjured up each season and uncessful attempts to bundle some and avoid some. We have made astonishing little progress in last 20 years and unfortunately doubling down on what isnt working is not working. Expand 20 years ago we could barely tease a 6-10 day outlook. Maybe we haven't nailed down 15 days or weeklies but we have come a heck of a long way without doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 8:50 PM, Weather Will said: Ok....I'm learning so this map? Expand Easier to see when you look at a sounding leading in (This is around Brunswick). If you follow the line I marked that is the freezing line. Notice that at 900 mb (pressures, hPa on the left) the temp is above freezing at it extends all the way to the surface. What hurts is we aren't getting evaporation cooling through that whole warm column (Green line meets the red line) as we have wet bulbed. So basically you are hoping for good rates to overcome this warmth without the benefit of evaporation cooling. Ninja'd by LP08 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 9:02 PM, showmethesnow said: Easier to see when you look at a sounding leading in (This is around Brunswick). If you follow the line I marked that is the freezing line. Notice that at 900 mb (pressures, hPa on the left) the temp is above freezing at it extends all the way to the surface. What hurts is we aren't getting evaporation cooling through that whole warm column (Green line meets the red line) as we have wet bulbed. So basically you are hoping for good rates to overcome this warmth without the benefit of evaporation cooling. Ninja'd by LP08 Expand What I wish was in those soundings was the height above sea level of those pressure levels. Maybe it’s there and I don’t know where to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 9:16 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: What I wish was in those soundings was the height above sea level of those pressure levels. Maybe it’s there and I don’t know where to look. Expand It’s there if you select an elevated location. See below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 9:19 PM, LP08 said: It’s there if you select an elevated location. See below. Expand Ok thanks but the way I read that is that it gives me the pressure level at the elevation where I’m located. I was wondering for example what the elevation of say the 850 level was. Just as an example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Jan 31st and nothing happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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