mappy Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ji said: He needs to stop As annoying as you may find his snow percentage maps to be, at least they are relevant to the discussion. your four posts telling him to stop, were not, and i was not the only person to think that being it was not me who removed them. happy friday! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 23 minutes ago, Scraff said: Which chapter was that in the weenie handbook again? The final chapter? Uh, works the other way as well. How many of these giddy periods centered around how great an upcoming period looks or how awesome the snowfall means look have we had? How many produced anything? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Fact is long range guidance is often wrong. I dunno. I have to agree that this is not so true.. the more encouraging trends of the long-range seemed to have quickly diminished on models. If Euro said one thing, and the GFS the other, major caution should have been our bent. Within a few days of any favorable pattern things usually tilted to the correct forecast. We have not really been surprised by anything this year.. no carpets pulled out from under our feet.. it has been pretty quickly settled that the long range was going to crap well before it happened. I admit it, around Thanksgiving was my biggest let down. The long range looked great going into December, then it quickly turned to crap! And one thing I would say, when the long range shows a turn to warmer, probably need to believe it is going to happen... maybe delayed a few days. NOW, when it comes to predicting potential precipitation, they have been amazingly good, way far out! Sure we have some missed by hundreds of miles or so, but many times precipitation.. I have been super impressed, especially with small, almost unforeseen events, coming to fruition. That was a lot to say that I have been impressed this year! Not happy with the actual weather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 DT put out a nice summary of why the winter has been bad. He also states that our best hope in this pattern is an overrunning event. Also indicates normally these patterns don’t lock in for four months so there is some hope for March. Check it out on his wxrisk facebook site. Good read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Uh, works the other way as well. How many of these giddy periods centered around how great an upcoming period looks or how awesome the snowfall means look have we had? How many produced anything? Oh I definitely know and agree. Just playing around and trying to keep it light this AM. My lack of snow frustration level is at an all time high like many in here. All we can do is push on and hope something breaks our way soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 50 minutes ago, mappy said: As annoying as you may find his snow percentage maps to be, at least they are relevant to the discussion. your four posts telling him to stop, were not, and i was not the only person to think that being it was not me who removed them. happy friday! I will not clutter the forum with percentage maps. I plan to post the 0z EPS and 12z EPS. I want snow as well so it hurts me as much as it hurts others that want snow. I view the maps as a quick and dirty way to see if an event is in sight. Nothing more should be read into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I will not clutter the forum with percentage maps. I plan to post the 0z EPS and 12z EPS. I want snow as well so it hurts me as much as it hurts others that want snow. I view the maps as a quick and dirty way to see if an event is in sight. Nothing more should be read into it. I know others dont care for them but I like seeing them for trends. Thanks for posting them. Lets hope we are all in the red at some point before winter ends haha. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: DT put out a nice summary of why the winter has been bad. He also states that our best hope in this pattern is an overrunning event. Also indicates normally these patterns don’t lock in for four months so there is some hope for March. Check it out on his wxrisk facebook site. Good read. Not a fan of March snow. Sun angle is a real thing. I’ll be ready to get this winter over with by Feb 29. And will be super pissed If we have a cold Spring rather than a normal one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 March snow is pretty awesome. Sun angle isn't really an issue for me. We could get 10 inches in Jan and it torch the day after like 50 degrees and all the snow melts fast anyway. I have a feeling we'll have a nice consolation snow in the next 30 days. February is usually good to us. January has always been frustrating for me. Help me out, isn't February the middle of winter anyway for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: DT put out a nice summary of why the winter has been bad. He also states that our best hope in this pattern is an overrunning event. Also indicates normally these patterns don’t lock in for four months so there is some hope for March. Check it out on his wxrisk facebook site. Good read. I can't wait for our 2 inches on March 10th to be melted 10 minutes after sunrise. The only saving grace this winter has been the lack of any decent storm potential that ended up whiffing at the last minute, with credit given to short/med range models.. it's been a steaming turd from the start.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 21 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said: March snow is pretty awesome. Sun angle isn't really an issue for me. We could get 10 inches in Jan and it torch the day after like 50 degrees and all the snow melts fast anyway. I have a feeling we'll have a nice consolation snow in the next 30 days. February is usually good to us. January has always been frustrating for me. Help me out, isn't February the middle of winter anyway for us? In the city, March snow melts on its way down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS continues to be brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: GFS continues to be brutal Yeah...next week's Wed-Fri rain is...ouch, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 It is likely the Mid Atlantic region will remain locked in this pattern right through February, possibly even March. Cold air will remain locked to our north with only a few brief and minor breakaways into the area, yet short lived. It’s not just this area, the Northeast, southern New England are all in the same boat. Even lake effect has been below normal. DCA may not even break 1”. Eventually the NAO/AO will come around in time to ruin our spring. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I'll take what I get at this point. At least any rain that comes won't be a miserable 33 and rain. Lots of 40s, 50s and a couple 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I have a work workshop from Feb 12 to 16th in South Carolina. I was legit going to wait until next Wed to book the trip, because I was deathly afraid of missing a snowstorm. lol. I'm booking my flight tonight. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Clueless said: Not a fan of March snow. Sun angle is a real thing. I’ll be ready to get this winter over with by Feb 29. And will be super pissed If we have a cold Spring rather than a normal one. March can definitely deliver! We did very well March 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Somewhere over the next few days I fully expect all guidance to be rain with these gradient waves but the Euro will come along for 2 or 3 straight runs to get everyone's hopes up by showing frozen before breaking hearts and crushing dreams. Dr No is a real thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I have a work workshop from Feb 12 to 16th in South Carolina. I was legit going to wait until next Wed to book the trip, because I was deathly afraid of missing a snowstorm. lol. I'm booking my flight tonight. Too early. I have a feeling that'll be just about the time that things change for the better. Its probably gonna get cold at some point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 42 minutes ago, PDIII said: Too early. I have a feeling that'll be just about the time that things change for the better. Its probably gonna get cold at some point this winter. Yeah April, when the doffadils are popping up and the -NAO crushes them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Game Set Match 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Now is a perfect time to debunk the perception that during prime climo when LR guidance, ens, and weeklies show good looks 9 out of 10 times they flip to the bad and trend the wrong way (and I dont mean just dampening out as lead times shrink ...I'm referring to the 180 degree flips we see quite a bit). Now that LR guidance, ens means, and weeklies are showing a crud pattern with all the wrong teleconnection indices and essentially an early end to winter, let's sit back and wait to see if they flip to the good looks as quickly as the other way....if at all. You're not accounting for a couple factors that cause the phenomenon you are talking about. 1. The GEFS has 2 known biases that would perpetually cause it to show too much snow here. A cold bias, and a weak bias with the PV. These 2 known factors constantly bias the GEFS towards too much snow here. The EPS and GEPS are constantly more conservative (and more accurate) wrt our snow chances in the long range. I think people see the higher GEFS snowfall and think the guidance is better than it really is. 2. When the long range guidance shows a 35% chance of snowfall...when that number goes down as it gets closer...that is not the guidance being wrong...or getting worse...its simply its closer and so they 65% is winning out...which ends up meaning no snow. That keeps happening...and people think the guidance is degrading...not its just the majority is winning as it SHOULD. If the guidance (and I mean the EPS/GEPS not the GEFS) ever actually shows above 50% chances of significant snowfall THEN its wrong if as it gets closer it loses the snow. That has not been the case at all this year...and it usually isnt. People are not interpreting the probabilities correctly. 3. We have to be in a good pattern for the opposite of what you are talking about to happen. Since we spend about 75% of the time in a crappy pattern (that is normal) there are not as many opportunities to get a "bad bust" like you want. In years like 2010 and 2014 there were times the long range looked bad and then trended better. It doesn't happen as often because we dont get as many chances in a "good year" as we do in a "bad year". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Game Set Match Thanks for rubbing it in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 What is Dr. No doing????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: What is Dr. No doing????? Jerking us off 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Game Set Match We lost our MJO outlook expert. Whatabout the CFS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Jerking us off No happy ending tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Ji, I still love you.....half an inch under Day 8 just for you!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thanks for rubbing it in... It is what it is. Nothing I say will change it. You can either cry or throw your hands up and laugh about it, then go find other things that bring you joy. Hopefully no ones entire happyness is 100% dependent on snow. If so I seriously suggest a location adjustment stat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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