PivotPoint Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You're debating 'textbook' look over what I posted which you stated wasnt a 'good' look. I agree it wasnt strong on the ens means but plenty of members had such a look and besides the GFS there were other ops that had similar looks. My point isnt to debate you on textbook epic vs good. More was pointing out how guidance essentially did a 180 on that map I posted. I'm sure you can at least agree with that no? I agree. I don’t care it’s op at range the point is there were a few good runs that gave us a glimmer now it’s a desert waste land of bad runs. And it makes sense given pna, epo, ao, nao, etc. None of which are sided in our favor or progged to be at least in next 10 days 22 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Looking at the NAO, at first glance, the 2010s doesn't look too horrible. Definitely skewed positive from about 2013 on. But its deceptive. Most of the blue is in late summer to fall. If you just look at Jan - March, a different and more familiar picture emerges. After the spectacular neg spike of 2010 it has been downwhill, or rather uphill, uninterrupted + since 2015. That graph also clearly shows the state change from the 50s/60s/70s "good ole days" to a much more hostile environment since 1980. Something is clearly different. The big question for us, is it natural variability or you know what? It’s definitely unnatural influence, at least to a degree. The degree being the question. But I will say that 24hr/365 days a year of pumping green house gasses by multiple industrialized nations... it doesn’t take more than 2nd grade logic to understand that this action cannot go on in perpetuity with ZERO consequences. Lol, I mean... come on. The great debate (if there even is one any longer) ends with a simple truth... there is no “free lunch” that exists in our physical universe. If we want to pump co2 from sun up to sun down across the entire planet , the earth will eventually respond, in kind (of some form). End soap box (sorry) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: I agree. I don’t care it’s op at range the point is there were a few good runs that gave us a glimmer now it’s a desert waste land of bad runs. And it makes sense given pna, epo, ao, nao, etc. None of which are sided in our favor or progged to be at least in next 10 days It’s definitely unnatural influence, at least to a degree. The degree being the question. But I will say that 24hr/365 days a year of pumping green house gasses by multiple industrialized nations... it doesn’t take more than 2nd grade logic to understand that this action cannot go on in perpetuity with ZERO consequences. Lol, I mean... come on. The great debate (if there even is one any longer) ends with a simple truth... there is no “free lunch” that exists in our physical universe. If we want to pump co2 from sun up to sun down across the entire planet , the earth will eventually respond, in kind (of some form). End soap box (sorry) Oh, you've done it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Oh, you've done it now. Somebody say it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I'll fall on the sword: Global Effing Warming...see three words instead of two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 LOL you know winter's dead when you check back in to the thread and the regulars are talking about all-time shutout stats. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 So the GFS basically has chilly rain on us from next Wed to Sat--I mean you talk about rubbing our noses in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Relax.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: Relax.... That comes after the gradient pattern winds down. Here's what happens during the next 2 weeks tho: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 OZ EPS. Continues grim for snow lovers thru Day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Enough. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Now is a perfect time to debunk the perception that during prime climo when LR guidance, ens, and weeklies show good looks 9 out of 10 times they flip to the bad and trend the wrong way (and I dont mean just dampening out as lead times shrink ...I'm referring to the 180 degree flips we see quite a bit). Now that LR guidance, ens means, and weeklies are showing a crud pattern with all the wrong teleconnection indices and essentially an early end to winter, let's sit back and wait to see if they flip to the good looks as quickly as the other way....if at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 12 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I agree guidance degraded that look. But didn’t I warn you about that a week ago? The way the pattern was progressing it was unlikely the canadien ridge was going to be able to do much damage to the tpv as it briefly traversed the edges of the NAO domain. And the ensembles always has some doubt built into the means. So yes the look changed but it did exactly what I thought it would so I guess I’m not lamenting it. Always looked to me like a transient ridge moving through the NA on the means. I never saw any indications of a legit block developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Unknown Yes this belongs in the digital snow thread but wouldn't it be great to converge to the extreme solution for once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Always looked to me like a transient ridge moving through the NA on the means. I never saw any indications of a legit block developing. Same here. Though admittedly I have been somewhat lax the last week or so following the long range so there very well could have been a period time where the models were throwing up a more sustained blocking period. Tried to find some positives this morning in regards to the long range but pretty much came up with zip. Never had been high on the upcoming period but always felt that it did still present some possibilities. But the way the models are morphing any optimism is slowly waning. I do see a couple of adjustments that may make a difference but I am not really hopeful we would see them occur given the tendencies this year. Get the EPO to slide farther east enough where we can get a N Based PNA might do the trick. Or see a deeper drop S/SE of the pv to suppress the flow in the east. Or even just an extension of the PV towards the 50/50 region instead of farther to the N and E that we are currently seeing might do it. But as I said, I am really not hopeful on those prospects. At this point I am pretty much hoping that the models are flat out wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Now is a perfect time to debunk the perception that during prime climo when LR guidance, ens, and weeklies show good looks 9 out of 10 times they flip to the bad and trend the wrong way (and I dont mean just dampening out as lead times shrink ...I'm referring to the 180 degree flips we see quite a bit). Now that LR guidance, ens means, and weeklies are showing a crud pattern with all the wrong teleconnection indices and essentially an early end to winter, let's sit back and wait to see if they flip to the good looks as quickly as the other way....if at all. Trending the "wrong way" means warmer/lack of snow. That generally happens more often as the guidance corrects(trends) as lead times shorten because that is the reality of our climo. When there is an established favorable pattern with persistence, that is when they tend to trend "better" with time. We have the opposite of that this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 Fact is long range guidance is often wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 25 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Always looked to me like a transient ridge moving through the NA on the means. I never saw any indications of a legit block developing. We were discussing the map I posted and the subsequent op map and how it did a 180 and the reasons for the dramatic flips. Nothing about a sustained NAO on the ens means as that feature was always weak sauce on those progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Trending the "wrong way" means warmer/lack of snow. That generally happens more often as the guidance corrects(trends) as lead times shorten because that is the reality of our climo. When there is an established favorable pattern with persistence, that is when they tend to trend "better" with time. We have the opposite of that this winter. I would be interested in testing this reverse theory someday as well when we have an established favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We were discussing the map I posted and the subsequent op map and how it did a 180 and the reasons for the dramatic flips. Nothing about a prolonged NAO on the ens means. Gotcha. Op runs do what op runs do from run to run at range lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Fact is long range guidance is often wrong. I concur. When there is an established base state for winter, and we see a continuation of that look in the LR on all major globals, I tend to believe the general idea is more right than wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Fact is long range guidance is often wrong. Actually I have been somewhat impressed with the performance of the models this winter when it comes to the longer ranges compared to previous years. Probably one of the better performances we have seen. Generally they have had the long wave pattern nailed. Some might argue how they could be so good when they show a good look that turns into a bad look as they near in time? That pretty much comes down to two things. When the smoothing from the longer ranges starts easing and the finer/smaller scale features start popping up. And when they adjust some large scale feature slightly that are key for our region (think EPO/PNA). They were never really robust with the idea of a -Nao this winter though they had their moments. All in all I think it was one of their better performances over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Gotcha. Op runs do what op runs do from run to run at range lol. No doubt. Just like individual ens members. Thus why we have the means. Just frustrating to see the op advertise it persistently run after run and suddenly flip on a dime to a raging ++NAO and never look back. Like you said, ops can be misleading in the LR and can be consistently wrong at times before adjusting suddenly to the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I concur. When there is an established base state for winter, and we see a continuation of that look in the LR on all major globals, I tend to believe the general idea is more right than wrong though. The weeklies are worse. But we know how they are programmed ie weeks 3-6 are a function of the first 14 days so if the first 14 are off the entire run is a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually I have been somewhat impressed with the performance of the models this winter when it comes to the longer ranges compared to previous years. Probably one of the better performances we have seen. Generally they have had the long wave pattern nailed. Some might argue how they could be so good when they show a good look that turns into a bad look as they near in time? That pretty much comes down to two things. When the smoothing from the longer ranges starts easing and the finer/smaller scale features start popping up. And when they adjust some large scale feature slightly that are key for our region (think EPO/PNA). They were never really robust with the idea of a -Nao this winter though they had their moments. All in all I think it was one of their better performances over the years. Honestly I think the only thing that the ensembles have "missed" on in the longer range is being too robust at times with the -EPO. They have been pretty good on the Atlantic and artic. The broad trough we were seeing that would have worked out here was mostly due to spikes in the EPO region. It seems to me the GEFS has a tendency to spike an EPO ridge in the longer range which is causing its horrendous "cold bias" when in reality it just never materializes and we get no real displaced cold. I am not saying that the GEFS doesn't have a real cold bias I just think some of it is overblown due to the tendency to spike the EPO in the longer ranges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Actually I have been somewhat impressed with the performance of the models this winter when it comes to the longer ranges compared to previous years. Probably one of the better performances we have seen. Generally they have had the long wave pattern nailed. Some might argue how they could be so good when they show a good look that turns into a bad look as they near in time? That pretty much comes down to two things. When the smoothing from the longer ranges starts easing and the finer/smaller scale features start popping up. And when they adjust some large scale feature slightly that are key for our region (think EPO/PNA). They were never really robust with the idea of a -Nao this winter though they had their moments. All in all I think it was one of their better performances over the years. I agree with this irt the ens mean in particular. Thought we could look to them and if gloom them gloom usually happened and if a.small window of opportunity then that usually happened as well. The ops LR....the usual flips and flops but we already knew that. Makes sense your point about a key feature shifting throwing the whole thing out of whack such as a PNA causing the massive NAO flip on the GFS. This was more the explanation/reasoning I was probably looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, LP08 said: Honestly I think the only thing that the ensembles have "missed" on in the longer range is being too robust at times with the -EPO. They have been pretty good on the Atlantic and artic. The broad trough we were seeing that would have worked out here was mostly due to spikes in the EPO region. It seems to me the GEFS has a tendency to spike an EPO ridge in the longer range which is causing its horrendous "cold bias" when in reality it just never materializes and we get no real displaced cold. I am not saying that the GEFS doesn't have a real cold bias I just think some of it is overblown due to the tendency to spike the EPO in the longer ranges. Good point. They have tended to overblow that feature. But they have been good with the general placement though they have on occasion shifted it slightly. And unfortunately just a slight shifting can have a major impact with our prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Enough. He needs to stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The weeklies are worse. But we know how they are programmed ie weeks 3-6 are a function of the first 14 days so if the first 14 are off the entire run is a moot point. Weeklies have very limited use imo. Probably ok for taking a quick look at week 3 to see how the pattern may evolve based on the advertised D15 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Fact is long range guidance is often wrong. Which chapter was that in the weenie handbook again? The final chapter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I agree with this irt the ens mean in particular. Thought we could look to them and if gloom them gloom usually happened and if a.small window of opportunity then that usually happened as well. The ops LR....the usual flips and flops but we already knew that. Makes sense your point about a key feature shifting throwing the whole thing out of whack such as a PNA causing the massive NAO flip on the GFS. This was more the explanation/reasoning I was probably looking for. I remember the days where I lived and died with each op run all the way out to the end of the extended. Would analysis each run into the smallest detail. But after 25 years of tracking I have learned that it is typically an absolute waste of time. There is very rarely anything to glean from them unless you are looking for something in particular to back what the ensembles are showing. So now I very rarely look in depth on the ops outside of 5 days let alone at 10+ days unless I have a compelling reason to do otherwise. Pretty much cursory glances and that is more so at 500's then the surface. Just wish more on these boards would take this frame of mind. It would resolve a lot of the heartache, headaches and angst we now see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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