Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Deer Whisperer]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Why wasnt this posted? All y'all weenies are slackin. And like they say, good to see the max zone a bit South. 

i think someone else posted the weatherbell maps in the digital snow thread

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Why wasnt this posted? All y'all weenies are slackin. And like they say, good to see the max zone a bit South. 

ETA: weenie rule #923...the big ones are sniffed out early

That’s ice down there. This is the actual clown map

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

That’s ice down there. This is the actual clown map

Shhhhh. Weenie rule #1387...if the kuchera shows ice or sleet then defer to TT and factor it all as pure snow.

[Rhino16]

Tell rule #923 to the rest of this winter, hasn’t worked out well so far.

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shhhhh. Weenie rule #1387...if the kuchera shows ice or sleet then defer to TT and factor it all as pure snow.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Shhhhh. Weenie rule #1387...if the kuchera shows ice or sleet then defer to TT and factor it all as pure snow.

 

30 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Tell rule #923 to the rest of this winter, hasn’t worked out well so far.

 

I do believe several of the original Weenie Commandments may have been lost accidentally by Ji sometime in history...

 

 

[Isotherm]

13 hours ago, frd said:

 

 

Here is the decent GloSea  5 data showing the next 45 days of zonal winds. Bottom line is the vortex does not weaken,  and hence most likely the NAM state remains unfavorable during Feb. and even March.  Certainly no SSWE this winter.  If you look at some models in the medium range you will see a dip in zonal winds but then they come back up. As stated previously this season, the vortex is very resilient and  recovers after attempts to weaken it. Either timing was off in wave 1 and 2 attempts or simply the delivery was not efficient. Bravo @Isotherm   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

@frd -- thank you. 

Additionally, I wanted to provide my thoughts on something I saw posted regarding the IO interference and its attendant correlation to the NAO mode. While I am not asserting that the hypothesis should either be rejected or fail to be rejected, concurrently, I would caution [not you, the individual proposing the hypothesis] attempting to attribute a particular phenomenon to the perturbations of a multifactorial index like the NAO. As I've mentioned in previous posts, the NAO is forced via numerous pathways adjunctively, which is why it is more difficult to prognosticate (IMO) than other indices such as the PNA [much more modulated by Pacific based perturbations]. The Indian Ocean standing wave was certainly a factor, among many others, this winter. For example, another factor includes expanded Hadley Cells, driven in part by the SSTA structure, and the macro-scale propensity to intensify the mid-latitude jet in the West Pacific. The mode experienced was really the inverse of what is desired for the coastal Eastern US.

Also, if interested, I posted an updated in my outlook thread which effectively rehashes the thoughts two weeks ago [no significant changes in thinking]. RNA structure February with potential / putative amelioration end of Feb-Mar.

[PivotPoint]

20 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

 

@frd -- thank you. 

Additionally, I wanted to provide my thoughts on something I saw posted regarding the IO interference and its attendant correlation to the NAO mode. While I am not asserting that the hypothesis should either be rejected or fail to be rejected, concurrently, I would caution [not you, the individual proposing the hypothesis] attempting to attribute a particular phenomenon to the perturbations of a multifactorial index like the NAO. As I've mentioned in previous posts, the NAO is forced via numerous pathways adjunctively, which is why it is more difficult to prognosticate (IMO) than other indices such as the PNA [much more modulated by Pacific based perturbations]. The Indian Ocean standing wave was certainly a factor, among many others, this winter. For example, another factor includes expanded Hadley Cells, driven in part by the SSTA structure, and the macro-scale propensity to intensify the mid-latitude jet in the West Pacific. The mode experienced was really the inverse of what is desired for the coastal Eastern US.

Also, if interested, I posted an updated in my outlook thread which effectively rehashes the thoughts two weeks ago [no significant changes in thinking]. RNA structure February with potential / putative amelioration end of Feb-Mar.

Question

IO interference has a confounding effect along with PNA state that effects the oscillatory nature of NAO - i.e. upper-level velocity patterns (200-hPa) wind anomalies at mid-latitudes (mjo phase 2, Indian Ocean) drive jet stream patterns at our latitude ? Then -PNA mean leads to -AO mean, which typically is found to correlate with NAO state as well... yes?

Thanks

[psuhoffman]

@Isotherm can’t an Aleutian ridge RNA pattern be overcome easier in March?  Assuming the NAO cooperated a little, which I have doubts of. 

Btw quick question wrt to last year. I know overall all the factors that lead to a less canonical nino response but there were times last February when the epo was very negative with a not hostile AO/NAO either (not the epic blocking sine expected but not bad either) and yet the trough continued to dump into the west and we had a huge eastern ridge. In some other years with a similar look we got a broad full conus positively tilted trough where could come translate east. What was the difference?  This look never struck me as that bad yet in most ways yet we had a monster eastern ridge. I thought with that look in the HL from the epo to the NAO we would at least suppress the SE ridge some.

 

[psuhoffman]

Let’s see how it screws this up. 

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Let’s see how it screws this up. 

suppressed =(

It's all about the Day 7/8 threat anyways. 

[psuhoffman]

Becomes...lol

[Weather Will]

WB Oz EPS....improving....but still not under Day 10.

[PCT_ATC]

the morning models take our fantasy snow away yet like they always do?

 

[showmethesnow]

Okay, I think I have all but officially thrown in the towel as far as this weekends system. Have known for awhile it was a long shot but I held out hope for a surprise. At this point I think the best that can be hoped for is some White Rain with good rates for those that have good elevation to the N and W of the cities. The reason for good rates is to hopefully offset the deep warm layer we will see from just under 850 mb down to the surface. But even that possibility is all but gone as guidance has generally pulled the moisture southward run over run as to where even the cities may see no precip at all. Sort of expect a last second bump up with the system but no where near what we would need to see to get the rates. There is one last possibility here and that has to deal with when the 500's pull through after the system has already departed. And even that is quickly disappearing as well.

What intrigued me about this period of time was how the models were handling the NS energy that was trailing the SS energy/coastal. As you can see from 2 days ago on the Euro we were seeing a deep drop in a prime location for possibilities on the East Coast. And we were seeing this at times on both the CMC and the GFS as well. The only problem with this look was the timing between the NS drop and the SS energy/low which is around OBX. But slow the SS energy down 12 hours as to where it is still in the deep south we are then looking at the possibility of a phase. Conversely speed up that SS energy by 12 hours as to where we see the low OTS this would allow height builds in front of the dropping NS energy to allow the trough it is embedded in to turn towards a neutral/negative tilt as it pushed into the east where any SS energy could potentially be picked up for a secondary low to pop. These things could also be accomplished with a slower or quicker drop of the NS as it is all about the separation between these two features.

 

 

All that said above it really doesn't matter at this point. Because this is what we are now seeing on both the GFS and the Euro. This just will not get it done. Not only that but it even pretty much takes any possibilities away for when the 500's push through as the NS energy runs to our north through PA.

 

 

But for those that are still holding out hope I offer you this. We are still seeing a deep drop of the NS on the CMC. We are also seeing a somewhat sloppy phase with SS energy as the NS is just a little to slow on this run. But we are still running into the same issues with the distance between the phase and the original coastal as they are still too close to allow good height builds off the coast to turn the trough. That said it is a close thing as we do see the trough attaining a neutral tilt as it runs through the east with a secondary low development off the coast that runs OTS. But speed up that original coastal by maybe 6 hours or so (or slow down the phase) and there are possibilities. And the CMC has been wishy washy with that low placement the last couple of days. So I guess there is still a chance though if I were a betting man I wouldn't be putting any money on it without some great odds.

 

 

[CAPE]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB Oz EPS....improving....but still not under Day 10.

^lol not too impressive.

Ofc given the advertised long wave pattern, and that surface and 850 temp anomalies are positive for all but about 3 days of the run, I guess that looks pretty good.

[Weather Will]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

^lol not too impressive.

Ofc given the advertised long wave pattern, and that surface and 850 temp anomalies are positive for all but about 3 days of the run, I guess that looks pretty good.

Yah, I know...But we are at about 6 weeks and ticking,  i get home around 6 and noticed the sun setting....everyone will be talking the dreaded sun angle soon!!!

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yah, I know...But we are at about 6 weeks and ticking,  i get home around 6 and noticed the sun setting....everyone will be talking the dreaded sun angle soon!!!

No worries with that. Only relevant when it snows.

[Ji]

there will be a day....one day...when one of these will work out for showmethepotentialsnow

[showmethesnow]

As has been noted by others on the board it looks as if we will have a gradient pattern setup in the extended. That is if the models can be trusted.  

If this is the case there are a couple of things I will be watching for. Below we have the Euro day 10/11 500's. Couple of things I want to point out. Note that we are seeing the greatest height builds running from the south and up the east coast. Consequently we are seeing the height lines in the east running up hill in response. Not really what we would want to see as it is pretty much a look that suggests that any energy running the boundary will run to our west and north. And short of seeing the boundary forced way to our south to offset its inevitable push northward with any system this is a look that will probably not work . And currently that doesn't look to be the case as to where the boundary will be far to the south.

 

But look what we are seeing day 14/15 on the EPS. Note that the height builds are situated more to the south then the previous example where they were running up the coast thus we are seeing the heights lines running flat through the east (optimal look is to see the height lines running slightly down hill through the east). The reason we are seeing these differences in the heights is because we are seeing a stronger push of the PV towards the 50/50 region. This is a more forgiving look then the previous as it allows for the energy to run more W to E then SW to NE on the previous so we shouldn't see a major push northward of the boundary with any incoming system. This is a look you can potentially do well in if you can get the boundary underneath you by 100 maybe even 50 miles on an incoming system.

*Now there is one word of caution I will throw in here. If you note that the greater neg anomalies are located up in southern Canada. I would prefer to see them farther south into NY or even into PA as they signify deeper, colder air. As is they are possibly suggesting that we might run into issues with the temp profile of the atmosphere even if we can get the boundary south of the region. But given the time of the year that may not be so much an issue.

 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS.  I greatly appreciate the expertise of our forum’s pattern experts and they have been spot on since December.  That being said, as we enter February, my focus will be to find the needle in a haystack snow storm.  I have given up on us having a great pattern.  Just give us enough cold air to give us a chance.  There is 0 percent of that over the  next 7 days.  Later next week and beyond I will keep watching until Mid March or so. 

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

there will be a day....one day...when one of these will work out for showmethepotentialsnow

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.

eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

[snowmagnet]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.

eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

I always love when you discuss how snow could potentially work out.  I look forward to your morning analysis every day and I learn a lot from all the different viewpoints on here.  

[anotherman]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.

eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

Coffee is not the same in the morning without your 5:30 posts!

[Ji]

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.
eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

Lol I wasnt attacking you. I actually learn alot from you but weve had one snowstorm since 2016 so I am not sure what's worked out. What you usually present is far fetched scenarios that go agsinst models so it's an uphill battle...hence my statement about one day you will beat the models

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

As has been noted by others on the board it looks as if we will have a gradient pattern setup in the extended. That is if the models can be trusted.  

If this is the case there are a couple of things I will be watching for. Below we have the Euro day 10/11 500's. Couple of things I want to point out. Note that we are seeing the greatest height builds running from the south and up the east coast. Consequently we are seeing the height lines in the east running up hill in response. Not really what we would want to see as it is pretty much a look that suggests that any energy running the boundary will run to our west and north. And short of seeing the boundary forced way to our south to offset its inevitable push northward with any system this is a look that will probably not work . And currently that doesn't look to be the case as to where the boundary will be far to the south.

 

But look what we are seeing day 14/15 on the EPS. Note that the height builds are situated more to the south then the previous example where they were running up the coast thus we are seeing the heights lines running flat through the east (optimal look is to see the height lines running slightly down hill through the east). The reason we are seeing these differences in the heights is because we are seeing a stronger push of the PV towards the 50/50 region. This is a more forgiving look then the previous as it allows for the energy to run more W to E then SW to NE on the previous so we shouldn't see a major push northward of the boundary with any incoming system. This is a look you can potentially do well in if you can get the boundary underneath you by 100 maybe even 50 miles on an incoming system.

*Now there is one word of caution I will throw in here. If you note that the greater neg anomalies are located up in southern Canada. I would prefer to see them farther south into NY or even into PA as they signify deeper, colder air. As is they are possibly suggesting that we might run into issues with the temp profile of the atmosphere even if we can get the boundary south of the region. But given the time of the year that may not be so much an issue.

 

SE ridge my be back. Been seeing hints of it last few model cycles on GFS and euro has more pronounced boundary setting by up to our west then the GFS...Not a good look attm 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.
eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

Lol I wasnt attacking you. I actually learn alot from you but weve had one snowstorm since 2016 so I am not sure what's worked out. What you usually present is far fetched scenarios that go agsinst models so it's an uphill battle...hence my statement about one day you will beat the models

You could make millions as a motivational speaker 

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Have had quite a few that have worked out over the last few years but you are always so busy whining you never take note.
eta: What exactly do you think the model discussion thread is about? It's about discussing the models and what they show as well as the possibilities. What it isn't, is your own private playground to whine and stomp your feet in as well as harassing others just because you don't get your snow. I think what irks me the most is that you are knowledgeable and you have been at this game for so many years that you should know better. And yet you are in here year after year putting even the rawest weenie to shame with your antics.

Lol I wasnt attacking you. I actually learn alot from you but weve had one snowstorm since 2016 so I am not sure what's worked out. What you usually present is far fetched scenarios that go agsinst models so it's an uphill battle...hence my statement about one day you will beat the models

Please move to banter if better there, but the point of this is the back ground state, our climo, and how you achieve long term seasonal snowfall is important to consider. I believe and know there have been periods like this before, where it would not snow.  Or, better to say, yearly snowfall totals were very low. Like the 90's maybe. 

However, there has been changes and no denying the base state seems to be warming, psu hits that topic nicely.  showme puts a lot of time and effort into his wrap ups, I love them. I just simply feel the last three years has been extra tough because of changing factors which guide and play a hand in the winter weather around here, and in the NH as well.   

You can make the point that ever since 2016 ( minus the Blizzard ) whatever can go wrong will go wrong in terms of cold and snow . ( except March 2018 ) 

Lets see over the course of three years I have seen a 6 inch EPS snow mean in our area not even deliver. 

Seen the GFS predict 4 days in a row a massive snowstorm, which folks believed even though there was no Euro support.  Guess what, no snow. 

Seen the Icon fail 123 times 

Seen the CMC fail 178 times 

Seen the new GFS predict the Day after tomorrow scenario with a frozen wasteland into the summer, about 50 times , all I got was flies, sunburn and chapped lips.

Record Fast Pac jet al over the NH.

Fog , fog and more fog and lots of dew in the winters....and hey there was fog but no snow 

Record low min all the time it seems 

Seen the 46 Day snowfall from the Euro and what happened should be discontinued worthless 

Judah calling for a - AO, ah forget about it 

Seen many frustrated seasonal forecasters the last two years 

But, if we did not have this hobby and did not always seek the answers about the weather in the long range everything I listed above I would not even know about.

I would get home from work and look on the TV, my cell or on my laptop at my local forecast and see what the weather would be. A two way street, great to watch the future for a chance to know first hand  before anyone else a blizzard or MECS is coming,  but also on the flip side, knowing that the next 30 days might be crap and having to deal with knowing that and how to get past that disappointment.  Hence the Panic room and the emotional swings.    

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

@frd You actually counted how many time the ICON and CMC failed? Hahaha Impressive

[frd]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

@frd You actually counted how many time the ICON and CMC failed? Hahaha Impressive

 

OMG,  I hope I am not that nutty. But,  you get the point. I am sure my numbers were low   :-) 

 

 

[frd]

 

Hmm...

Just like warms Decembers after the 20th recently,  why not another attempt at 80 degrees in Feb. Total speculation of course. 

The AO is going way high and if the major MJO event hits the right phase maybe we challenge a couple records.