Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:36 PM, psuhoffman said: You trying to convince me? I was the one who “cancelled” winter a month ago remember? That look opens the door to possibilities but we would need help. It could work with a string of waves or timing. Anything spaced that ams will cut. You didn't really cancel winter. You were excited somewhat at some of these long range looks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:37 PM, Maestrobjwa said: So like...is everybody just completely baffled about this NAO no longer being negative in the winter? Has anybody offered any actual explanation? And agreed...we may have to get something in a tiny passing window. (To me, next weekend would be the chance for that...at least we got a LITTLE more cold air to work with...) Expand It’s not that unusual. Look at the 1980s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:36 PM, psuhoffman said: You trying to convince me? I was the one who “cancelled” winter a month ago remember? That look opens the door to possibilities but we would need help. It could work with a string of waves or timing. Anything spaced that ams will cut. I'm going to nemacolin next Sunday night. I'm hoping I can see at least a wintry mix of rain and sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This has been and continues to be the primary killer. With a sustained +AO, that almost always correlates to a +NAO, and with very little help to offset it in the PNA/EPO domains, the overall pattern is pretty much death to MA snow chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:45 PM, Ji said: I'm going to nemacolin next Sunday night. I'm hoping I can see at least a wintry mix of rain and sleet Expand You can’t. The only thing mixed you will experience is a drink from the bar. Sorry but you cancelled winter long ago and someone paid attention. Thanks a pant load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:38 PM, Ji said: On 1/29/2020 at 10:36 PM, psuhoffman said: You trying to convince me? I was the one who “cancelled” winter a month ago remember? That look opens the door to possibilities but we would need help. It could work with a string of waves or timing. Anything spaced that ams will cut. Expand You didn't really cancel winter. You were excited somewhat at some of these long range looks Expand I was hopeful...but always skeptical. I want it to snow. And I’m also mindful of not flooding the thread with doom and gloom. I made those very detailed posts with data and statistics to support them and that was my peace. Im not going to hammer it home every 12 hours. But I put a lot of research into those posts I made a month ago now. I didn’t just wake up feeling Scroogey and throw that out for giggles. And all the history said this pattern just flat out sucks and most of the time when we entered a January with strong central pacific ridging and a strongly positive EPO/AO/NAO it was lights out on hopes of a good winter. And the only exceptions (and there weren’t many) were years where the NAO flipped strongly negative but that happened by late January in every case. So that ship has sailed. But flukes happen. Im not saying it won’t snow at all. I’m never as confident it will snow in a good look or sure it won’t in a bad. Too much weird stuff has happened in the past to ever rule it out. So I’m hopeful. I’m rooting for the fluke. But the history of such situations were in now says our best chance of that fluke (if it happens at all) is in very late February or March. ETA: on the hope springs eternal side, I think 1948 was an example of a similar year to this where our area lucked into a pretty good (3-6”) snowstorm in February from what was a pretty meh pattern surrounded by a god awful pattern. It was one of tye ugliest looking h5 patterns of all the snowstorms I examined for the snow climo study. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Gfs going to oscillate every run from being on the good side or the bad side. Gonna be fun.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:51 PM, Ji said: Gfs going to oscillate every run from being on the good side or the bad side. Gonna be fun....Good side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 We need that Nov pattern now. Figures the most favorable pattern we have seen would occur when snow climo completely sucks lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:45 PM, Ji said: I'm going to nemacolin next Sunday night. I'm hoping I can see at least a wintry mix of rain and sleet Expand I am starting to turn more of my attention to looking at west to plan my ski trip. I settled on Aspen for a long weekend but have to decide about a week out (before flights book up and get pricey) when I think the snow looks good. I’m quickly becoming more interested in that then our snow prospects. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:53 PM, Ji said: Good side Expand Good side of what? A few sleet pellets? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Oh man...gfs looks like a cousin of pd2 lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:58 PM, Ji said: Oh man...gfs looks like a cousin of pd2 lol Expand Yup. That is just an epic depiction of awesome. For lack of anything else I will toast to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:54 PM, C.A.P.E. said: We need that Nov pattern now. Figures the most favorable pattern we have seen would occur when snow climo completely sucks lol. Expand Wasn’t a fluke. The forecasts that relied on sst heavily had optimism. So did the sst based guidance. In November and early Dec before the jet strengthens those factors could dominate. We had the epo ridge we expected with the north pac sst. But the seasonal guidance was correctly picking up on an unfavorable walker cell structure to disrupt the pv and a raging +AO and they were right. As soon as the PV went crazy late Dec it was game over. The reason we could have a chance again in March is the same reason we did I’m early season. As the jet weakens again maybe the PV grip releases. I’m skeptical but maybe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 11:05 PM, psuhoffman said: Wasn’t a fluke. The forecasts that relied on sst heavily had optimism. So did the sst based guidance. In November and early Dec before the jet strengthens those factors could dominate. We had the epo ridge we expected with the north pac sst. But the seasonal guidance was correctly picking up on an unfavorable walker cell structure to disrupt the pv and a raging +AO and they were right. As soon as the PV went crazy late Dec it was game over. The reason we could have a chance again in March is the same reason we did I’m early season. As the jet weakens again maybe the PV grip releases. I’m skeptical but maybe. Expand Oh that dang Walker cell structure...I don't fully understand what it is, but...didn't something about that screw us over last winter too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:58 PM, Ji said: Oh man...gfs looks like a cousin of pd2 lol Expand I’m sure a 36 hour snowstorm from a string of progressive waves with no blocking will play out exactly like that from day 13! I’m getting provisions ready! Btw we should do this bizarro reverso thing more often. Being you is fun. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 11:08 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Oh that dang Walker cell structure...I don't fully understand what it is, but...didn't something about that screw us over last winter too? Expand It wasn’t nearly as hostile as this year but it wasn’t ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:58 PM, Ji said: Oh man...gfs looks like a cousin of pd2 lol Expand Ok so if we actually get this ridiculous epo block and the AO flips to neutral like this... then yea that storm is totally realistic. But count me skeptical that flip up top is real. But there is always a chance. And if so it better freaking snow because it leads to this... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 11:17 PM, psuhoffman said: Ok so if we actually get this ridiculous epo block and the AO flips to neutral like this... then yea that storm is totally realistic. But count me skeptical that flip up top is real. But there is always a chance. And if so it better freaking snow because it leads to this... Expand Nice. Just in time for the 5 year anniversary of the famed arctic front and snow squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 10:53 PM, Ji said: Good side Expand So good we get to see it twice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 That 2 feet plus in southern Alabama has my confidence level up. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 11:41 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That 2 feet plus in southern Alabama has my confidence level up. Expand It’s really only 12” and a ton of ice. Way more realistic. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 11:43 PM, psuhoffman said: It’s really only 12” and a ton of ice. Way more realistic. Expand If we can establish some glaciers in the deep South might help our chances up this way. I'm in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 11:10 PM, psuhoffman said: I’m sure a 36 hour snowstorm from a string of progressive waves with no blocking will play out exactly like that from day 13! I’m getting provisions ready! Btw we should do this bizarro reverso thing more often. Being you is fun. Well unfortunately I'm too much of a dumb shit to be you...so I guess we can both be me! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/29/2020 at 11:17 PM, psuhoffman said: But count me skeptical that flip up top is real. But there is always a chance. Expand I mean there is some data that points to a temporary weakening of the vortex, add whatever lag effect there is and you get to the date in question. Still hard to believe, but like you said, there is a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 12:12 AM, frd said: I mean there is some data that points to a temporary weakening of the vortex, add whatever lag effect there is and you get to the date in question. Still hard to believe, but like you said, there is a chance. Expand There is a chance that it’s mathematically possible that it could happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 WB 18Z GEFS...call me skeptical until we get this probability under 10 days... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 12:29 AM, psuhoffman said: There is a chance that it’s mathematically possible that it could happen. Expand The Browns could win the Super Bowl next year, too. That's still a mathematical possibility...at this point, anyhow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 12:43 AM, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GEFS...call me skeptical until we get this probability under 10 days... Expand several big hits in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Why wasnt this posted? All y'all weenies are slackin. And like they say, good to see the max zone a bit South. ETA: weenie rule #923...the big ones are sniffed out early 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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