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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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2 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Next week looks like a headache. Really warm to start is looking like a pretty strong bet. Then there's a system(or some combination of systems) that cuts along the cold boundary, well to our west. Then at least some of that cold air gets in here by later in the week but how much and whether there will be storms/tracks that cooperate are a huge bleh. 

Every piece except one is there for our gradient/boundary look......AO or NAO help to force cold south to press against the se ridge. Without that the se ridge flexes and the boundary is n and w. Not sure a strong -EPO can counter that. Not going to sugarcoat, but I'm pretty sure by the look the se ridge is going to win and force the boundary N. Of course that isnt a lock... just how things look across the ens means right now. Even a transient NAO during the gradient would work if timed properly with a stj wave.

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Every piece except one is there for our gradient/boundary look......AO or NAO help to force cold south to press against the se ridge. Without that the se ridge flexes and the boundary is n and w. Not sure a strong -EPO can counter that. Not going to sugarcoat, but I'm pretty sure by the look the se ridge is going to win and force the boundary N. Of course that isnt a lock... just how things look across the ens means right now. Even a transient NAO during the gradient would work if timed properly with a stj wave.

maybe this is our Heather A--A NAO block breaking down before a big storm lol

ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png

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2 hours ago, frd said:

The move into phase 6 on some models despite a growing sub seasonal signal in the central Pac. , which is interesting . Not sure what Ventrice is alluding to with his idea of a very strong MJO event developing later in Feb. Of course he did not state where that phase might target.  

On a side note, not liking the possible new trend regarding the AO. Last couple days seems more consensus on it going higher  versus previously was more neutral. 

Some models give the vortex a hit soon,  but it recovers shortly thereafter. Maybe that is being reflected in the numbers,  although the time frame does not really match.    

 

We'll have a brief opportunity for possibly a little accumulation the second week of February, but besides that I'm concerned.

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Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Except the gradient is in western PA, not over us.

If the SE ridge takes hold in mid-February, our goose is cooked.

Right.  But I don’t want to just flush all hope down the toilet. The gradient is not in western Indiana so who knows.    That goose has been ready to be taken out today the oven for a while now.  

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3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This run the GFS consolidates too much of the energy along the front into the lead wave...and that positions the trough too N/S vs E/W and makes it really hard for the follow up wave to develop...the timing also sucks as the next NS wave that COULD phase and develop a storm is too far behind.  The potential is there it just misses the moving parts coming together right.  Then we get the waves but they all manage to go just north of us...which is the risk in that pattern.  

Exactly. Well put and exactly what I was getting at irt the timing isn’t quite there for the phase. If that lead wave could make a turn as opposed to progressive (as depicted) it could slow the NS down enough to allow or trough time to dig and phase. Then I think the boundary is ripe for a track that hits the mid Atlantic. All speculation yada yada...

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

At least the look at the end of the eps would get cold air near to us.  That’s about all I can say positive. The issues continue. No sign of a AO or NAO flip and pac ridge continues to be centered southwest of where we need it. 

Despair... but my wag for the season is we get some type of transient WC ridge that gives us an overrunning something wound up rain/snow/rain deal. Just don’t think the blocking is there and cold air source keeps getting dumped into western states

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1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Except the gradient is in western PA, not over us.

If the SE ridge takes hold in mid-February, our goose is cooked.

A SE ridge is fine tbh and is one of the ways we avoid suppression in certain patterns. But in a gradient flow without any HL block the SE Ridge will pump heights too far N and W. And right now it looks as if we will only see transient weak ridging up top, but who knows. The ens have flipped on a dime before.

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Just now, Ji said:

I mean its obvious its not going to snow this year but we cant even get something legit to track outside of 9 days

Winter showed its hand weeks ago. The advertised look in the LR is mostly more of the same. Maybe we luck into something, but the likelihood of a notable pattern flip before it's too late is probably low. Pretty confident we will see a -NAO death block for April and May though.

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19 minutes ago, Ji said:
57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Ugh they posted out of order. But who cares they are all the same 

Well it's not a shutout look but we will prob get shutout

You trying to convince me?  I was the one who “cancelled” winter a month ago remember?  

That look opens the door to possibilities but we would  need help. It could work with a string of waves or timing. Anything spaced that ams will cut. 

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10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Winter showed its hand weeks ago. The advertised look in the LR is mostly more of the same. Maybe we luck into something, but the likelihood of a notable pattern flip before it's too late is probably low. Pretty confident we will see a -NAO death block for April and May though.

So like...is everybody just completely baffled about this NAO no longer being negative in the winter? Has anybody offered any actual explanation?

And agreed...we may have to get something in a tiny passing window. (To me, next weekend would be the chance for that...at least we got a LITTLE more cold air to work with...)

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