Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@psuhoffman agree with your reply above. It's just mind boggling how guidance jumps on such a potent -NAO block for several consecutive runs and not even la la land per se (under 10 days) then completely flip to a raging +NAO in one run and never look back. Rarely happens the other way right, lol?

Chances are still there, boundary/gradient pattern may setup so maybe we can stumble into something....not giving up just yet. I think I said Feb 10ish was my threshold if nothing is on the horizon.

On the bright side, if we dont see another flake this season, next year will almost (emphasis on almost) inevitably be better. Things can only go up...right? 

 

When you hit rock bottom, only one way to go.....

 

 

.....breaks out jack hammer 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’m as bad as anybody when it comes to getting desperate for snow but I think we need to still remember that there are about 7 weeks left where significant snowfall can occur. Like a lot of people, once we pass Presidents’ Day, I enjoy the snow less, but we still get good ones nonetheless. It’s easily feasible that by late March we are sitting here with near normal snow totals. I remember 93 well and that year flipped on a dime from awful to special, at least where I lived, right about the 7th of February.

[StantonParkHoya]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup...I do think it’s undeniable that “bad” years are getting worse. DCs ability to eek its way to something like 8” in a crap year like this is being hurt by marginal events becoming harder and harder to work. The early Jan storm was an example where 30 years ago DC might have got 2” instead of .2. This weekend if some light precip does make it in maybe in the past DC adds another 1-2” but now it’s likely white rain. So I think what we’re already crap years are worse. 3” instead of 8”. 1” instead of 5”. And that sucks but is that really the big deal?   Would that many people be happy if DC ended up with 8” instead of 3”?  Likely the same people would be whining because by the standards of the past that 8” would be crappy. So long as our “good patterns” still produce that’s the most important thing. We just haven’t had any.  If we start to see good patterns not working anymore that’s when alarms will go off for me. It’s probably coming eventually but I don’t see that yet. 

 

Conversely, I'm not so sure that the new climate hasn't made storms that previously may have dropped a foot, now drop 14". 

[StantonParkHoya]

10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m as bad as anybody when it comes to getting desperate for snow but I think we need to still remember that there are about 7 weeks left where significant snowfall can occur. Like a lot of people, once we pass Presidents’ Day, I enjoy the snow less, but we still get good ones nonetheless. It’s easily feasible that by late March we are sitting here with near normal snow totals. I remember 93 well and that year flipped on a dime from awful to special, at least where I lived, right about the 7th of February.

In DC proper, there really aren't 7 weeks anymore. For you rurals, sure.

Hell, it's difficult for us to snow correctly in mid-January. March 1 is Spring for the most part inside the beltway. 

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m as bad as anybody when it comes to getting desperate for snow but I think we need to still remember that there are about 7 weeks left where significant snowfall can occur. Like a lot of people, once we pass Presidents’ Day, I enjoy the snow less, but we still get good ones nonetheless. It’s easily feasible that by late March we are sitting here with near normal snow totals. I remember 93 well and that year flipped on a dime from awful to special, at least where I lived, right about the 7th of February.

pretty sure the last like 5 winters have had a decent march event for most, if not all people here (yes, it melts quick, it doesn't count blah blah blah, shutup ji). 

I get the mood, believe me. I hate this winter too, but there is still time. 

[snowmagnet]

This is starting to sound like the Panic Room. Is there anything positive/hopeful in the morning models?   

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, mappy said:

pretty sure the last like 5 winters have had a decent march event for most, if not all people here (yes, it melts quick, it doesn't count blah blah blah, shutup ji). 

I get the mood, believe me. I hate this winter too, but there is still time. 

You arent wrong. I will give you that much. Heck at the end of the day when you look at the calendar it does still say "January", so there's that.

[North Balti Zen]

2 hours ago, anotherman said:

Very true.  I have been telling people I work with that this winter is like a winter in N. Carolina or Georgia.  Even though it's a reality, it's hard to accept.

It's a dead ringer for almost every winter I experienced in Memphis from 1998 - 2009.

[StantonParkHoya]

13 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It's a dead ringer for almost every winter I experienced in Memphis from 1998 - 2009.

 

They're not the same. NC is substantially colder than GA.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Yup...I do think it’s undeniable that “bad” years are getting worse. DCs ability to eek its way to something like 8” in a crap year like this is being hurt by marginal events becoming harder and harder to work. The early Jan storm was an example where 30 years ago DC might have got 2” instead of .2. This weekend if some light precip does make it in maybe in the past DC adds another 1-2” but now it’s likely white rain. So I think what we’re already crap years are worse. 3” instead of 8”. 1” instead of 5”. And that sucks but is that really the big deal?   Would that many people be happy if DC ended up with 8” instead of 3”?  Likely the same people would be whining because by the standards of the past that 8” would be crappy. So long as our “good patterns” still produce that’s the most important thing. We just haven’t had any.  If we start to see good patterns not working anymore that’s when alarms will go off for me. It’s probably coming eventually but I don’t see that yet. 

My benchmark for success IMBY is one WSW event per season, so yes, I would be much happier with 8" as opposed to 3", assuming the additional 5" all came from one event. 16/17 had one WSW event for me and nothing else and I was happy.

I'm actually thinking of counting the number of 1" or greater events at DCA and BWI over the last 40 years and seeing if the trend line decreases. Anecdotally I agree but I want to see if there's data to back it up.

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

 

They're not the same. NC is substantially colder than GA.

he was comparing to Tennessee -- not NC or GA. 

[Snownado]

10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

 

They're not the same. NC is substantially colder than GA.

Central and South GA are definitely much warmer than most of NC, but theres not a big difference in temps between North GA and NC outside of the mountains.

[osfan24]

Looks like the NAM came back to reality.

[North Balti Zen]

29 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

 

They're not the same. NC is substantially colder than GA.

What mappy said, I was comparing this winter to the winters I experienced in Memphis for 11 years. This winter has pretty much been those.

[North Balti Zen]

18 minutes ago, mappy said:

he was comparing to Tennessee -- not NC or GA. 

Correct, thanks. Thought that was clear, guess not.

[Baltimorewx]

6 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like the NAM came back to reality.

Yeah, funny thing is, Tony Pann used the 6z run morning to say we still have a chance

[mappy]

Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Yeah, funny thing is, Tony Pann used the 6z run morning to say we still have a chance

context is everything - He thinks there's a chance, that's about it. 

 

[jaydreb]

So what happened?  Yesterday there were positive posts about the upcoming look from around Feb. 6-13.  Were the overnight runs that bad?

[Baltimorewx]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

context is everything - He thinks there's a chance, that's about it. 

 

His context sucks and its borderline hyping and model hugging. Layman people see this and say oh a chance of snow this weekend!...Just my opinion but if he wants to continually throw it out there (Which he does every single day) then at least provide the context that its unlikely to accumulate to much if anything.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looking upstairs it seems the ICON should have produced a better result with the coastal than it snowed. Seemed to be positive changes at h5. Perhaps this portends a better look from the globals today. Who knows. Still 3 days away.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Baltimorewx said:

His context sucks and its borderline hyping and model hugging. Layman people see this and say oh a chance of snow this weekend!...Just my opinion but if he wants to continually throw it out there (Which he does every single day) then at least provide the context that its unlikely to accumulate to much if anything.

i dont disagree about the borderline hype -- but if you know Tony Pann, which many who follow him do, they know he is a weenie. #snowtrain 

[WinterWxLuvr]

16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Looks like the NAM came back to reality.

Using the NAM at long range for anything is foolish

[mappy]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Using the NAM at long range for anything is foolish

this. add HRRRRRRRR to that too

[Maestrobjwa]

22 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

So what happened?  Yesterday there were positive posts about the upcoming look from around Feb. 6-13.  Were the overnight runs that bad?

I didn't think they were that bad for that. (I mean, no degradation of the look of a southern wave and colder air in place than this week) But I'll defer to the more experienced posters in case I'm not looking at it right...lol)

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS has rain here, at NIGHT on Saturday, with 850’s well below freezing and the surface a couple of degrees above. Call me crazy but that ain’t rain. 

[Solution Man]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS has rain here, at NIGHT on Saturday, with 850’s well below freezing and the surface a couple of degrees above. Call me crazy but that ain’t rain. 

Thought the same,  534 well South of D.C., seems we don't snow anymore 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I'm jumping ship.  The MJO just hasn't cooperated this season.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Looking upstairs it seems the ICON should have produced a better result with the coastal than it snowed. Seemed to be positive changes at h5. Perhaps this portends a better look from the globals today. Who knows. Still 3 days away.

The improvements at h5 are being offset by the fact that they are trailing behind the STJ wave....that initial wave is way out ahead of the upper support to the point that the GFS tries to develop another wave associated with the upper level support but there isn't enough energy left behind by the first wave.  We need the energy to be consolidated with the upper energy that comes through Saturday Night into Sunday...instead the STJ wave ran out ahead on its own...that would work if it had ejected whole but its too weak and the flow isn't amplified enough for that to work.  

[LP08]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The improvements at h5 are being offset by the fact that they are trailing behind the STJ wave....that initial wave is way out ahead of the upper support to the point that the GFS tries to develop another wave associated with the upper level support but there isn't enough energy left behind by the first wave.  We need the energy to be consolidated with the upper energy that comes through Saturday Night into Sunday...instead the STJ wave ran out ahead on its own...that would work if it had ejected whole but its too weak and the flow isn't amplified enough for that to work.  

CMC does the same with some nice 38 degree rain Saturday night.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

CMC does the same with some nice 38 degree rain Saturday night.

This new development bears watching...that lead wave is pretty much a non starter.  Too much working against it... not very strong, no cold air to aid in WAA....you can't get good WAA precip without cold to "resist" the WAA and cause the lift...way out ahead of the NS trough.  But the NS energy has been sneakily trending better and if it were somehow to pop a redevelopment that could suddenly become a player.  Right now we are stuck in between 2 good options...and with our luck that is where we end up, but this is the first time guidance has really picked up on this new option.  I think the idea of popping a little trailing wave associated with the upper level energy has more potential.  Still not a good bet...but its worth keeping an eye on.