Weather Will Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 WB GFS 18z....looks like we are close to a phase and a negative tilt....experts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 At least the GFS keeps it interesting. We just need the coastal to generate its own cold air (weenie handbook page 1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 This is probably as good a run as is possible for the coastal plain with this crappo setup, and it still produces only light snow. Thus why I have been out since the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: WB GFS 18z....looks like we are close to a phase and a negative tilt....experts? Long way from a negative tilt though I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS 18z....looks like we are close to a phase and a negative tilt....experts? It's actually no where to close to what it was just last night at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 need that NS wave to dig further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is probably as good a run as is possible for the coastal plain with this crappo setup, and it still produces only light snow. Thus why I have been out since the beginning. I agree that we’re probably tracking a rainstorm at best, but it’s been interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Congrats Ji. You get a quarter of one snowflake In this GFS run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 It's actually no where to close to what it was just last night at 0z. Last night 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Last night 00z run Referring more to the 500 look. I guess I was misreading it. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS 18z....looks like we are close to a phase and a negative tilt....experts? I may not be that much of an expert (nor do I play one on TV, and have not stayed at a Holiday Inn Express)...but my 2 copper coins worth: The "main" southern stream trough actually has a neutral tilt (aligned more or less north-south). The northern stream energy up around WI is neutral to slightly positive tilt. But it sure looks like it's getting close to phasing with the southern stream...which, if it did, would probably result in a closed off system that becomes negatively tilted. (Note: "positive" tilt, trough aligned more southwest-northeast in the flow..."negative" tilt, aligned northwest-southeast, and can become closed off..."neutral" tilt, aligned more north-south. Generally speaking, a positively tilted trough is weaker, and the energy can tend to get sheared out. A negative tilt or closed low implies a slow moving or intensifying system, or perhaps phasing if there's more than one stream...these tend to be much stronger. A neutrally tilted trough is kind of, well, neutral or "in the middle", could imply a trough that's amplifying and potentially can become negatively tilted.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Trough placement sucks, not enough dig, barely negative, closest high pressure over Colorado. Meh and meh. Simply awful. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 22 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS 18z....looks like we are close to a phase and a negative tilt....experts? The separation of energy on this run is still too far apart for the MA. By the time the N/S vort catches up with the S/S vort, the phasing energy is too far to the east. The snow we see breaking out over WV is from strong PVA on the base of the trough coupled with upslope flow over the higher terrain. Wind direction shifts to the NW across the Piedmont as N/S finally makes its run at the S/S, but that provides a down-slope component locally, drying out the precip shield on the western side. In order for the area to be in game with the storm, you need the S/S vort to lag by 6-12 hrs, or for the N/S to speed up and promote phasing while the S/S energy pivots through western NC. It's all just too late for it impact the MA, and even most of the EC for that matter. Not until the Maritimes do you see the anchor set up and start pulling back to the NW. LI, Cape Cod, and Down-east Maine the only true beneficiaries. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: This is probably as good a run as is possible for the coastal plain with this crappo setup, and it still produces only light snow. Thus why I have been out since the beginning. When have we seen this before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Trough placement sucks, not enough dig, barely negative, closest high pressure over Colorado. Meh and meh. Simply awful. 20/20 vision. No source of cold air because the atmospherics are terrible. Perhaps a high elevation event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The ss vort was much stronger on this run and was able to produce an event without a phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Ji said: The ss vort was much stronger on this run and was able to produce an event without a phase We need to root for a stronger ss system that stays off the coast and drops massive amounts of precipitation on the western flank. We need really good rates with this if it's gonna be all ss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: The ss vort was much stronger on this run and was able to produce an event without a phase That was a positive takeaway for the run, but issue becomes when the winds shift west/northwest, down-sloping takes over and it all dries up quick. If that S/S vort can tilt negative or pass further to the northwest, more precip can be thrown back for the inevitable cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The ss vort was much stronger on this run and was able to produce an event without a phase This. Ill take my chances with 34 degrees and heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 24 minutes ago, Chris78 said: This. Ill take my chances with 34 degrees and heavier precip. Have fun with that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 WB-18Z ICONGood luck with that. Snowless winter locked in since December Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 I'd have to say the GEFS made a step in the right direction for a coastal solution going off of the LPC placement charts and total 24 hr precip for our coastal on TT. Gotta be some snow hits mixed in for someone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 #18 for the win.....NopeSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: I'd have to say the GEFS made a step in the right direction for a coastal solution going off of the LPC placement charts and total 24 hr precip for our coastal on TT. Gotta be some snow hits mixed in for someone. Getting better and better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Getting better and better. What are the 850s on that? I’m being lazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What are the 850s on that? I’m being lazy Does it matter on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Does it matter on Monday? Yes. Yes it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What are the 850s on that? I’m being lazy Doesn't matter what they are today. It only matters on Friday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Getting better and better.Not gonna happenSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Not gonna happenSent from my SM-N960U using TapatalkThanks for those thoughts. Really adds a lot to the conversation. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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