yoda Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Ukmet has 987 east of va beach Yeah, but its southern stream driven with little northern stream interaction is what I am seeing in the SNE thread... which def would suggest problems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Yeah, but its southern stream driven with little northern stream interaction is what I am seeing in the SNE thread... which def would suggest problems I looked at 00z smh you should do better at looking at the correct runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Upper 30s to near 40 degrees and raining at DCA at 114-120 for UKIE... total QPF for DCA is 0.25-0.30... more towards the Eastern Shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, mappy said: you should do better at looking at the correct runs I tried deleting the post a second after I hit submit but yugo kept replying to it i took care of it for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 The UKIE is a big jump towards an actual storm for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Its Awesome that Pivotal has Ukmet and soundings too Its better on Pivotal than on WxBell... i may be cancelling my subscription soon and sending my $ to Pivotal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 If I recall, doesn’t the UKMET provide us a slight preview to what the EURO might do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Exactly and therefore serve absolutely no purpose All show examples of weather but no predictive emphasis to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Are you assuming they won’t show higher odds when we actually do get a good pattern? No first we would actually be in a good pattern and then the higher odds of one would show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Mersky said: I have heard that mentioned over the years but the truth is no. Being number one and number two in verification scores has more to do with it. Got it. Thanks. Just hoping things go well with the King now. I really feel like we are still a day or two away from sealing our fate for better or worse. Seems like quite a few moving pieces currently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Euro through 72 has some light snow into SW VA from the NS. Quite different than 0z that had a more substation SS SW and storm off the SE coast at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Better heights out in front, less dig to the SW on the Euro. We will see how much improvement, if any, it will make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Swing and a miss... ETA: The silence is deafening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 There are a few gfs members that say don’t give up on the weekend just yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: There are a few gfs members that say don’t give up on the weekend just yet Define a few please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 27, 2020 Author Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Define a few please 3 or 4. But I only see what’s posted to PSU. I think there are actually about double that number that actually exist. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: There are a few gfs members that say don’t give up on the weekend just yet Man we played this game with last weekend's rainer...lol (I'm more intrigued by the potential just beyond that...hope we'll have something to chase by Friday!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 50 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: No first we would actually be in a good pattern and then the higher odds of one would show up. Thanks for rewording my sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 even the big january snow last year...that was a 1-3/2-4 event up until 12-24 hours before the event. The models had really sheared things out and then brought it back even bigger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 57 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: All show examples of weather but no predictive emphasis to it In the past when you would look at a setup that is 48 hours away...and you break down our odds of this or that based on the barometric pressure... you are using the guidance. Otherwise you would have no freaking idea exactly what our barometric pressure would be in 48 hours...or what the pressure at Pittsburgh would be...or anywhere else. Your tools and application of very sound methodology are great...but they would have absolutely no predictive worth beyond about 24 hours without NWP because its impossible to extrapolate the atmosphere very far out in time without the aid of computers. Some of the best minds used to try back before NWP and it was mostly a disaster of busted forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 16 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Define a few please sure: a few A small number of persons or things. This phrase can differ slightly from few used alone, which means “not many.” For example, The party was to end at eight, but a few stayed on indicates that a small number of guests remained, whereas The party began at eight, and few attended means that hardly any guests came. [Late 1200s] Also see quite a bit (few). 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, mappy said: sure: a few A small number of persons or things. This phrase can differ slightly from few used alone, which means “not many.” For example, The party was to end at eight, but a few stayed on indicates that a small number of guests remained, whereas The party began at eight, and few attended means that hardly any guests came. [Late 1200s] Also see quite a bit (few). Take this to the banter thread please. 1 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, Baltimorewx said: Take this to the banter thread please. Nah. Its good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 The Euro with white rain pity flakes at the end of this run. I'm exhausted. That's six days of Feb gone if the Euro is right...which, thankfully, that won't be the final solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: The Euro with white rain pity flakes at the end of this run. I'm exhausted. That's six days of Feb gone if the Euro is right...which, thankfully, that won't be the final solution. It wont...but no matter what happens this weekend was always and still is a very low probability proposition. After that we ridge out for a couple days as the initial dump of the AK cold airmass comes into the midwest. So barring some crazy good luck with this weekend thing...we likely are going to have to hope the very good pattern look after Feb 5th is correct and we can score something. Frankly odds wise our chances of snow remain about the same from Feb 1 through March 10th...then go down very dramatically after that. We still have some time to at least save something out of this dreadful winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: It wont...but no matter what happens this weekend was always and still is a very low probability proposition. After that we ridge out for a couple days as the initial dump of the AK cold airmass comes into the midwest. So barring some crazy good luck with this weekend thing...we likely are going to have to hope the very good pattern look after Feb 5th is correct and we can score something. Frankly odds wise our chances of snow remain about the same from Feb 1 through March 10th...then go down very dramatically after that. We still have some time to at least save something out of this dreadful winter. Oh, I've moved on from the weekend thing since Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The Euro with white rain pity flakes at the end of this run. I'm exhausted. That's six days of Feb gone if the Euro is right...which, thankfully, that won't be the final solution. we got 40 inches of snow between Feb 5 and Feb 12 in 2010...relax bro...plus the euro spit out 2 huge inches on day 10 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh, I've moved on from the weekend thing since Saturday. problem is there will likely be a few days of dead space behind it also... there could maybe be a little NS vort diving in behind if it ends up not phasing that could bring a clipper type snow. That kind of thing wouldnt show up at range...but Ive seen hints that is possible. But other then a fluke type thing like that...after the weekend we have to wait for the dump of cold getting ejected out of AK. As that presses down into the midwest there will be the natural see saw effect on the longwave pattern and we will ridge here so that first wave will most likely go to our north...maybe so far to our north we don't even get any precip from it. It's after...later that next week that things could get interesting starting with the chance at a trailing wave along the front and then see if the STJ wants to play nice after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Oh, I've moved on from the weekend thing since Saturday. yes....you shouldnt of even looked at it all living in fort washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2020 Share Posted January 27, 2020 cause I know how much you all crave it 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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