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Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, Ji said:
4 minutes ago, Ji said:
Lol ggem trying to revive the bob chill storm

It tried but the bob chill storm is near dead

You guys named the damn thing. I said like 20 times in 2012 that I never want my name attached to a storm again. The midweek failure is on you guys. Not me.

Remember superbowl weekend in 2015? Lol. This one could be worse because we didn't get any precip out of that debacle. I'd rather have that compared to what the gfs just did. All in ICON unless the euro holds.

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You guys named the damn thing. I said like 20 times in 2012 that I never want my name attached to a storm again. The midweek failure is on you guys. Not me.
Remember superbowl weekend in 2015? Lol. This one could be worse because we didn't get any precip out of that debacle. I'd rather have that compared to what the gfs just did. All in ICON unless the euro holds.
Check out the ggem...leaves energy behind and does a moderate event before a Miller b thing....

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From day to day this best way to describe the emotions on this site are like a soap opera. Each episode (model run) the main character dies and everyone mourns, then the next day the main character is back! It's quite comical to watch the emotional roller coaster lol.. serious question, whatever happened to forecasting?? Not just relying on CAD? Again, idk so it's a serious question not a smartass remark or snide towards anyone. It just seems like the only thing models nail are slam dunks that could be predicted based on the layout without cad. Thanks

  • Confused 1
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Until the strong AK vortex relents, the chances for snow in our area, east of the mountains, remains low. Between the EPAC ridge and the AK vortex, mild Pacific air is being hurled eastward. Look at our source region. No it's not a torch pattern here, but with no HL help, it is nearly impossible to get a legit cold air mass with the hostile PAC.

Until we move away from this-

1580428800-QHxZxnVSRF8.png

To this...

1581076800-iJpdS8VNnwQ.png

...frozen will be hard to come by outside of the western highlands. On the 0z EPS, after an initial shot of moderate cold into the east around the 7th, it weakens/retros  the PNA ridge and pulls the mean trough back into the central US, which looks a bit tenuous. It does appear to be building a ridge up into AK though. Still signs of improvement in the NAO domain with the TPV further west and  elongated. More waiting to see exactly how the long wave pattern evolves towards mid Feb.

Hopefully things don't go the way the 0z GEFS is suggesting. Back to square one. Or zero.

 

  • Weenie 1
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6 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ha...this is gonna be fun. Let's see how many rain/snow flip flops we get over the next 8 days...lol

Probably not many. Nearly every run of every model except that 12z Euro (and one icon run which I dont count that model) has been majority rain. We dont do thread the needle well.

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