Weather Will Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 2:17 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d bet that you could stat any year, any 16 day window from mid December to mid February and you would get a 30-40% chance of a 3” snow. Expand I use it for trends. Over the last month, the probs have been lower, but agree until we see it going up under 5 days, it does not mean it is going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 2:17 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d bet that you could stat any year, any 16 day window from mid December to mid February and you would get a 30-40% chance of a 3” snow. Expand Actually probably higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 1:28 AM, jaydreb said: It’s always the storm after the storm. Expand Ji better delete his FB post before the Loudoun housewives put his head on a stake 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/24/2020 at 11:09 PM, jaydreb said: Expand Sad.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 The gfs once had this storm in Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Icon baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Silly ICON. Is this thing ever correct at this range? We can only hope , right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 3:51 AM, Ji said: Icon baby!Driest nor'Easter since feb 2005 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 3:51 AM, Ji said: Icon baby! Expand Is that the Bob Chill storm or the SB storm or a hybrid thereof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 3:51 AM, Ji said: Icon baby! Expand Really good agreement on the models there will be a strong storm somewhere in the east next weekend.Really wish we had a better air mass leading into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 3:55 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Is that the Bob Chill storm or the SB storm or a hybrid thereof? Expand Bob Chill storm was the Wednesday wave that washes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Pretty uncanny that all the Ops have a storm this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 3:57 AM, jaydreb said: Pretty uncanny that all the Ops have a storm this far out. Expand Yeah, we need to cash in starting next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Dont like seeing a closed low so early in gfs....we need the storm to get here fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:11 AM, Ji said: Dont like seeing a closed low so early in gfs....we need the storm to get here fast Expand We don't want that to close off at all before it's east of the MS. Airmass is already marginal. Cutting off the flow early will spin up a lot of warm air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:11 AM, Ji said: Dont like seeing a closed low so early in gfs....we need the storm to get here fast Expand Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:15 AM, Bob Chill said: We don't want that to close off at all before it's east of the MS. Airmass is already marginal. Cutting off the flow early will spin up a lot of warm air Expand What about n/s sw where do we want that to be so it doesn't interfere with ss energy? Looks like 156 has it in sw MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Convoluted triple phase setup. Could go boom but what kind of boom? Thunderstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Geez so slow and different...let's see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Massive cutter? It’s a monster of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 We toss. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:18 AM, Ji said: Geez so slow and different...let's see Expand That dig to mexico and early close is a disaster. If we haven't struggled with cold air start to finish this year I would consider tossing the gfs. Fits into the eps big rainstorm idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Gfs spitting out a different solution every run is not helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Winterwxluvr says we need precip and not cold so we're right where we want to be 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:22 AM, Bob Chill said: That dig to mexico and early close is a disaster. If we haven't struggled with cold air start to finish this year I would consider tossing the gfs. Fits into the eps big rainstorm idea Expand Hm...but with a track like that...can ya trust it? I could see if it was a difference like 18z with where the dividing line was...but in this case it was a completely different look. Strengthens a case for tossing it, imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:20 AM, jaydreb said: Massive cutter? It’s a monster of a storm. Not really...normal rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 Ha...this is gonna be fun. Let's see how many rain/snow flip flops we get over the next 8 days...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:26 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Hm...but with a track like that...can ya trust it? I could see if it was a difference like 18z with where the dividing line was...but in this case it was a completely different look. Strengthens a case for tossing it, imo... Expand It's not an unbelievable run though and fits what the gefs and eps show as the mostly likely outcome. Certainly cant punt yet because that's silly. Can't ignore what the majority of the data shows tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:25 AM, Ji said: Gfs spitting out a different solution every run is not helpful Expand Don’t worry. 18z GEFS says the storm after this one will be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2020 Share Posted January 25, 2020 On 1/25/2020 at 4:29 AM, Bob Chill said: It's not an unbelievable run though and fits what the gefs and eps show as the mostly likely outcome. Certainly cant punt yet because that's silly. Can't ignore what the majority of the data shows tho Expand So the gefs and eps are currently more supportive of a cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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