stormtracker Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I want the bob chill storm back...that was a slam dunk 3 to 6 GFS sends it on a Gulf of Mexico tour and out to Bermuda...again I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 The potential upside is that with the GFS showing 5,468 s/w's, it's probably not going to be right with one of these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GFS sends it on a Gulf of Mexico tour and out to Bermuda...again I thinkYea..it starts so well and ends so poor.Like Marcus's weather boards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The potential upside is that with the GFS showing 5,468 s/w's, it's probably not going to be right with one of these storms. Damn...we lost a couple of shortwaves from the last cycle. Chances are decreased. I'm out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 might be a hh run incoming with that feb 1 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 GFS is an improvement.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Incoming bomb on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS sends it on a Gulf of Mexico tour and out to Bermuda...again I think The big ones lock in early. That’s what they say in Bermuda anyway 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Holy bomb ....very similar to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Pretty damn close to the Euro considering it’s still 180 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just need to shift the track East by like 75 miles. Runs it west of Va beach this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 do we want this storm to come in earlier vs later in the weekend??? seems like earlier is more favorable for all in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 well it jumped over 300 miles this run so that shouldnt be too much to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Yeah, a bit inland. But I don't think it's so much a matter of needing it farther east so much as it is the antecedent air isn't the greatest. Though that would help I guess. Euro was offshore, but also a precip bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 hours ago, Scraff said: Wondering if happy hour GFS will finally get a clue? I have sneaking suspicion... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Yup. The only thing missing is the cold air on that run. Like missing flour in a cake. Even 75 miles would be just barely cold enough for some. Apps would get pasted. Op run so this is folly. Storm signal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Just now, BristowWx said: Yup. The only thing missing is the cold air on that run. Like missing flour in a cake. Even 75 miles would be just barely cold enough for some. Apps would get pasted. Op run so this is folly. Storm signal. I’ll be in Snowshoe that weekend. Could be interesting. Or I could end up missing out on our best event of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 5 minutes ago, LP08 said: Just need to shift the track East by like 75 miles. Runs it west of Va beach this run. This. Just a nice 75 mile shift east and this board would be healed if it turned out that way. ETA: I missed a panel. Looked like we need more like 150 miles easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 @bobchill you said the eps showed 10 of 50 hits. How many would of been big hits if cold air was not an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 This. Just a nice 75 mile shift east and this board would be healed if it turned out that way.Can we do an emergency 6pm radio show? 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This. Just a nice 75 mile shift east and this board would be healed if it turned out that way. ETA: I missed a panel. Looked like we need more like 150 miles easter Math was never my strong suit...or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 WB GFS 18z. EURO and GFS models are very close this far out. You have to smell the rain to get the best snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 I don’t see in that set up how we get this thing East. West maybe. Long time to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I don’t see in that set up how we get this thing East. West maybe. Long time to watch. Why do you say that? Dude...it's just Day 8, lol If this comes down to an exact track, ain't now way this is gonna be figured out right now (remember last run when it cut the storm? Lol) But yes, as psu said, we could very well need a perfect track...and if that be the case, keep expecting model swings till err, is don't know...next Thursday? I'm not even sure the "setup" is in stone yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 its a nice hit for the favored areas. Temps are better than the Euro as well. Thats as far west as I want to see it track though. Even out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB GFS 18z. EURO and GFS models are very close this far out. You have to smell the rain to get the best snows. Do you mind showing this same map through 228 hrs? I'd like to see the additional snow from upslope event in west Virginia. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 20 minutes ago, Ji said: Can we do an emergency 6pm radio show ? This made me spit my fry out of my mouth. Never been so happy to see a partial agreement between euro and GFS. I know you commented earlier about not caring if BOS gets smoked. I agree if I can muster 6-8" I'd never complain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yup. The only thing missing is the cold air on that run. Like missing flour in a cake. Even 75 miles would be just barely cold enough for some. Apps would get pasted. Op run so this is folly. Storm signal. i actually somewhat agree...but i'm trying not to lol. my concern is the amount of room it would have to amplify. i'd like to see a high pressure build in over top of the system to provide a better cold air source. as is, it's attacking a weakening high, so we might just want better phasing with the ns. nice to see a storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: its a nice hit for the favored areas. Temps are better than the Euro as well. Thats as far west as I want to see it track though. Even out here. For our i 81 area 50 to 75 miles east would be perfect but I aint complaining. Love that both the euro and GFS have qpf bombs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: @bobchill you said the eps showed 10 of 50 hits. How many would of been big hits if cold air was not an issue The 10 count was within areas east of the mountains so a general statement because location matters as usual. Here's the 24hr snow meteo for Gburg Here's the qpf meteo. Lot's of big rainers in the bunch it seems. About 1/3rd have over 1" qpf. Considering what we're seeing on the ops now it's easy to envision the razor thin margin of error. This can all easily improve with better track/colder air etc but anyone who gets married to this "snowstorm" from long leads is setting themselves of for a disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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