EastCoast NPZ Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'd wait to see what happens the next 10-12 days. If we still manage to whiff even after all that activity...then bring out the teardrop, lol (so let's hope ya keep it on the shelf!) So, you mean like Feb 3 - 5? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: eps snowfall actually increased from 00z. We are actually in the 3 shade! can you post? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: All guidance is consistently showing a pna ridge allowing some of the cold in AK to discharge into the eastern US. This time of year AK cold will do well enough. It’s an ok workable look. But if the euro is onto something...that look there can evolve into a legit very good pattern easily. If that east based NAO ridge continues to build...I am becoming a little less pessimistic about February. But people should keep expectations in check. The goal should be to get a snowy February...not a snowy “winter” at this point. It’s unlikely we’re going to make up for losing 60% of winter. If we do great and revel in it but expecting that is setting up for disappointment. Yeah have to just let go of Dec/Jan at this point. Absolute miserable failure, esp for I-95 east. If Feb and March can deliver 2 or 3 decent events, then maybe we can salvage winter so it doesn't go in the books as a complete wreck. A bit of HL blocking would sure help that cause. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: eps snowfall actually increased from 00z. We are actually in the 3 shade! You need to relax with the emotional reactions to op runs at 7+ days. I know telling you that is a waste of time but still... Imo the low point was actually 3-4 days ago. I thought this weekend was a lost cause by then, it just took some people longer to accept that, and the long range improvements were too far out to matter yet. But we have had 72 hours of incremental but consistent improvements both in the day 5-10 and 10-15 pattern. And now there are hints it might even be getting better after. Long range needs to be viewed like some abstract painting done by a drunk 4 year old. The overall ambiance is better now than 2-3 days ago. Our chances to avoid a complete disaster year are a little better today than 3 days ago. When a discreet threat makes it inside day 5 then I will worry about an op run or that specific threats fate. Right now I am taking in the whole longwave pattern picture and it continues to look better each run for several consecutive runs. Continue that and eventually we will be analyzing VV and Fgen to determine who gets the death band. Spoiler Alert: ME....it’s always me. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah have to just let go of Dec/Jan at this point. Absolute miserable failure, esp for I-95 east. If Feb and March can deliver 2 or 3 decent events, then maybe we can salvage winter so it doesn't go in the books as a complete wreck. A bit of HL blocking would sure help that cause. Agree. If we can get a few week period in Feb-Mar, sort of like 2015, then who cares if Dec and Jan were awful? Now, I'm in no way implying that I expect a 2015-like repeat, but if we score something reasonably good and memorable, I won't much care to dwell on the first part of the season being a failure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: can you post? thanks nah--its too much effort. a general 2-4. congrats 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How many waves are we lookin' at here? It looks active with multiple waves both in the NS and STJ ejecting off the pac. Some aren’t pure STJ waves, they dive in off the western jet split. But it doesn’t matter to us how they get to the gulf coast. It’s what the do after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westendsnowguy Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 10 minutes ago, Solution Man said: can you post? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But we have had 72 hours of incremental but consistent improvements both in the day 5-10 and 10-15 pattern. And now there are hints it might even be getting better after. Long range needs to be viewed like some abstract painting done by a drunk 4 year old. It's really unfair to say such things about Pablo Picasso! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Westendsnowguy said: thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Long range needs to be viewed like some abstract painting done by a drunk 4 year old. Dude, that't the best phrase I've read on this board all year. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: 750 mile variance is futility of prediction in action The guidance has been EXCELLENT this year, unless you place unrealistic expectations on the specifics of long range. They have generally nailed the longwave pattern generalities from distance. And inside 5 days when details matter they have been good with those...no major short range busts. But yes if you expect the exact location of a synoptic system to be perfect from day 8 then I suppose they suck. But that would be like cutting any player who can't hit a half court shot every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The guidance has been EXCELLENT this year, unless you place unrealistic expectations on the specifics of long range. They have generally nailed the longwave pattern generalities from distance. And inside 5 days when details matter they have been good with those...no major short range busts. But yes if you expect the exact location of a synoptic system to be perfect from day 8 then I suppose they suck. But that would be like cutting any player who can't hit a half court shot every time. Crushing the analogies today, aren't we... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Dude, that't the best phrase I've read on this board all year. By far, lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: i think my where is live is actually in the 4 shade...10 miles east is in the 3 lol! 12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10. Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10. Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10. Getting better little yellow mixed in those blues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 12Z WB EPS most of which is after Day 10. Again, I will get more interested if probabilities start going up under Day 10. Yay digital snow! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The guidance has been EXCELLENT this year, unless you place unrealistic expectations on the specifics of long range. They have generally nailed the longwave pattern generalities from distance. And inside 5 days when details matter they have been good with those...no major short range busts. But yes if you expect the exact location of a synoptic system to be perfect from day 8 then I suppose they suck. But that would be like cutting any player who can't hit a half court shot every time. We know you are a model lover with 6 paragraph discussions three times a day over the last 15 years I have had a different type of outcome in attempting to utilize them. it would be interesting for other board participants to chime in as to their experiences and beliefs . the 750 mike swing in a few days that you describe as “excellent work” I would have to disagree with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Westendsnowguy said: Meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 If the gfs slows down anymore this could become a white Christmas threat 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 GFS digging the trough all the way into Central America at 198. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 If the gfs slows down anymore this could become a white Christmas threat Its not even a white feb 1 threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I’m pretty confident that it’s not going to play out like that on the gfs. Just call it a hunch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the gfs slows down anymore this could become a white Christmas threat You're on a roll today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I’m pretty confident that it’s not going to play out like that on the gfs. Just call it a hunch. So what's your hunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Total snow so far on 18z gfs... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 36 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: We know you are a model lover with 6 paragraph discussions three times a day over the last 15 years I have had a different type of outcome in attempting to utilize them. it would be interesting for other board participants to chime in as to their experiences and beliefs . the 750 mike swing in a few days that you describe as “excellent work” I would have to disagree with. What 750 mile swing? This was the furthest south op run of the gfs this is the furthest south gefs run this is what it’s projected day 3 now that is 200-250 miles at most And this is what the Gefs showed when it was 7 and 8 days out!!! There was only a 24 hour period where some guidance was 200 miles too far south, from 6 days out. Before that it was spot ok. And by 5 days it corrected again back to the correct idea. There was one fluke euro op run that was a crazy anomaly and 1-2 gfs runs over 10 days that deviated from the consensus. The guidance gave me a pretty clear picture of what was going to happen from day 9 on. Plus you have to inject climo knowledge and history to the nwp output. If a couple fluke op runs over 10 days fooled anyone that’s operator error not a tool malfunction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: Total snow so far on 18z gfs... That’s not a whole lot unless I am reading it wrong. Looking good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Total snow so far on 18z gfs... Looking good! If you want to track a shut out. Hahaha. Not going down like that. Seems like plenty of changes ahead (famous last words). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Total snow so far on 18z gfs... That looks very believable 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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