Wonderdog Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 51 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No one posted a map so I will 18z Gfs This map can't be right. A little bit of snow is in Nova. It's not over!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 This looks just like a number of setups in January- February 98. None of those produce anything decent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Yeah. That has heartache written all over it. According to that map I get snow. But i'll believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: I thought the euro was close to a MD line event....especially the higher spots. Wouldn't take a huge shift to get an accumulation along the N counties....or could just go the other way and put a fork in it. Looking through the eps members theres still a decent amout that schlack I81 and west. Maybe 12 to 15. Theres more that hit western PA hard. I still think its a long shot because theres not much cold left by Friday bit it wouldn't take a huge shift for I 81. Like a 50 mile shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: It might encroach the southern edge of the NAO domain some...but its not the kind of look that will influence the pattern the way we need. A better sign is the guidance ejecting the AK vortex...although todays GEFS seems to take a "step back" on that. I don't care about the blue over us if there is still a AK and Greenland Vortex combo...it will not be cold enough in all likelihood regardless of a day 15 look. This is a composite of warning level snowfalls at BWI with a somewhat similar Pac look to this year. Notice where we need the ridging in the NAO region to be. Is this closer? Caveat ops, at range, dragons unicorns, blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I’m gonna just say it ..things don’t look so great in the LR with a less than ideal look for wintry weather in the MA. Everyone is dancing around it but it needed to be presented as an idea that might have some merit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Too many quitters lol. To me this isn’t some simple low that forms in one place and travels to another. This thing is bouncing around all over the place in relation to that upper low. Might be a dupe but I think I can stay interested in a few more runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Too many quitters lol. To me this isn’t some simple low that forms in one place and travels to another. This thing is bouncing around all over the place in relation to that upper low. Might be a dupe but I think I can stay interested in a few more runs. Problem is there is really no cold air unless the storm tracks perfectly. If we had some real cold in place I would definitely be more interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 18z GEFS WB. Most of this probability is centered Days 9-16 around DMV I won't give up until mid March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 18z GEFS WB. Most of this probability is centered Days 9-16. I won't give up until mid March. Better than most of C VA and south thru NC. They can’t even get 3 inch probs in the mountains. In Feb no less. Could be worse I guess. These maps are cool. Someday there will be red over the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 28 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Too many quitters lol. To me this isn’t some simple low that forms in one place and travels to another. This thing is bouncing around all over the place in relation to that upper low. Might be a dupe but I think I can stay interested in a few more runs. Yeah I think we may be the only ones still with the ship, bro lol Like I said, I'll riiiiiide till I can't no mo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: @Bob Chilldid a classic hit and run. Didnt post for a week...came in-----got himself a storm name and then disappeared like a thief in the night Lol- yea, and i was so confident in it that I said it would be at least Wed before we know if we stand a chance. That was the only error in my post because it only took until Monday night to rule it out. I'm not even looking at ens run for more than 2 minutes now. It's not even worth that much time. Maybe mid Feb gets better. I'm ready for spring, fishing, and camping now. I'm done with this year unless something believable gets inside of 5 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I think I'm going to follow Bob's lead. Unless something gets inside of five days, I'm not going to torture myself with model run. Hopefully I'll be back in a few weeks talking about an event. Just doesn't seem in the cards this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Winter low point tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Man I hope we don't go 4 years in a row without a footer....that would be somewhat historic by itself--seeing as it hasn't happened for over 27 years...yikes. That would make this winter one of the absolute worst on record because of that alone. (Even worse if we didn't see another flake and stayed at 1.8", lol) It would make you wonder if we would be setting up for a longer drought like 1970-1977, smh But our region has always has gone: a few bad years in a row, one or two good...then 2 or 3 bad...then good, etc. 20 inches is the magic point for me...and usually we can hit that every 3-4 years (historically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Winter low point tonight The only real flaw since mid Dec is we can't buy a deep/cold airmass to save our lives. Precip has been plentiful and some of these west tracks could have been decent mixed events. The long range through all of Jan has been too cold. Until that changes our luck is unlikely to change. I'm not punting the rest of winter because that's silly. Winter didn't even begin in 2015 until mid Feb and ended up being a great winter. It all started with that arctic front. Anything can happen and nobody knows how Feb will go. Personally, I'm not getting invested anymore until a cold pattern is either in place or knocking on the door. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/ The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier) Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Snowy Hibbo said: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/ The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier) Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc. Adding that caveat in #4 is a nice touch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 39 minutes ago, Snowy Hibbo said: https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2020/01/22/north-america-on-the-long-term-22nd-jan-2/ The latest blog update for long term snowfall prospects for North America from my perspective. PNW/BC/Northern Rockies to remain good for the next fortnight, reducing in the second week of Feb. California/the SW/Southern Rockies to improve for the latter half of February (maybe a bit earlier) Eastern US expected to improve for the last 15-20 days of February (2nd-3rd weeks of Feb, possibly into the 4th week) IMO. These impacts may be reduced/weakened by Arctic influence, etc. Did you just throw out a "fortnight"? Aside from the video game I haven't seen that term used in meteorological discussion in a....yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Did you just throw out a "fortnight"? Aside from the video game I haven't seen that term used in meteorological discussion in a....yeah. In a fortnight? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowy Hibbo Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Did you just throw out a "fortnight"? Aside from the video game I haven't seen that term used in meteorological discussion in a....yeah. Lel, it’s probably used more here in Australia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Man, I hate to cut this Reaper Retreat short, but it sounds like I’m needed here. I was really enjoying the tea. But unfortunately for you it goes right through ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I love you guys, but god damn did this thread become a depressing sick ward where everyone is mumbling "just end it already!" while the grim reaper waits in the hallway. find the panic room, fill out a lease. Or even the banter thread for that matter. 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 WB 0Z EPS says continued patience is needed for the next two weeks. But is there a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel....2nd week of February that the weeklies were alluding to? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 gfs has 3 storms that track south of us---- all rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Ji said: gfs has 3 storms that track south of us---- all rain "Just bring the precip and I will take my chances". Doesn't work without cold air, and there is no legit cold air mass in sight going forward. Well, maybe in about 15 days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: "Just bring the precip and I will take my chances". Doesn't work without cold air, and there is no legit cold air mass in sight going forward. Well, maybe in about 15 days... That “better” look is so tenuous. Guidance relaxes the AK vortex some and builds just enough ridge barely near the NAO domain and in the Southwest to squeeze a cold shot down the middle between the two ridges. But all of the changes are barely enough and if any of them is wrong it’s just more of the same. I don’t feel good until I see either the AO/NAO really start to flip or that Vortex away from AK. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 CFS still on-board for a general cold pattern beyond the first few days of Feb. Driven by a +PNA initially, then by the big EPO ridge we keep seeing advertised on LR guidance- that ultimately fails to materialize. Maybe it will this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Before any re-load of cold into Canada some areas near James Bay are projected to have anomalies in excess of 30 degrees above normal. Pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Great comments here and post form HM. Anthony also mentioned this regarding the IO forcing, that it is a cold signal late in the winter. " ...the other variable is the Feb wavelength, with low frequency forcing of niño, can amplify the PNA pattern. But if this forcing isn't present or reduced and the vortex is strong, it probably won't be a reoccurring feature. IO forcing becomes a colder signal late winter. (2/2) " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts