Mid January/Mid February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It takes a low from the panhandle of Florida straight north to northern Indiana.

No. That low ends up over NC. There is an ULL that pops a surface low in Indiana.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

No. That low ends up over NC. There is an ULL that pops a surface low in Indiana.

How so? At 144 it’s in the fla panhandle, at 150 it’s in western ky. There’s no low in NC at that time. Maybe this is a transfer of sorts but I don’t see that the low moved to NC. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

How so? At 144 it’s in the fla panhandle, at 150 it’s in western ky. There’s no low in NC at that time. Maybe this is a transfer of sorts but I don’t see that the low moved to NC. 

Maybe I'm misreading it....I'm running a loop and sure looks like the panhandle low heads NE and the upper low over the Plains captures a different low. Either way it's a different solution.

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Mersky said:

 

I assume the devil is in the details as to where the transfer happens.  Obviously TN valley is preferred.  

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

12z Gefs for next weekend 

Hr 174

Which one is best?  I mean in your opinion...bottom right maybe 

[Weather Will]

EPS WB 12Z still Dr. No through the 2nd.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern

Lol what do you see in February?

Just general ideas of a having a -epo and/or +pna more often than the opposite. It's unusual how things are failing over the next week. Ens almost got it right but the Canadian ridge is in the way of getting deep cold int the mid latitudes. I saw a cluster of ens members showing warmish/rainish potential a week ago but it was a minority and the clear majority said amplified and cold was likely. Go figure... the minority fail solutions are right this time when the majority has been winning over the last month. It's like a hex...

Feb just looks ok imo. Nothing discrete or specific. Just that we could get a couple breaks for the first time all winter

[MDstorm]

6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

EPS WB 12Z still Dr. No through the 2nd.

I am starting to hate this particular kind of map. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

[Ji]

I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

Not really...they always show nothing

[MD Snow]

29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

Useless outside of 5 days imo

[Weather Will]

I like the probability maps because they are useful in seeing trends when viewed over several runs.  I use the 3 inch or more to get rid of the noise of the members showing a dusting.  The reality is that there is 0 percent chance of snow before next weekend.  No map of any kind will change that reality.

[87storms]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Anything is possible during prime climo but it's not looking good until Feb from what I see. No blocking, no deep cold, and an overall lame h5 pattern for the next 10 days is all I see. If something pops in the mid range it will grab my attention but I'm pretty much uninterested. Tired of chasing ghosts in a stacked against pattern

would be nice to see the 540 line closer to our lat for a change when a system is encroaching (or a better vort pass), otherwise we need a perfectly timed high pressure to the north.  without ample blocking these air masses seem to be getting booted out too soon.

[CAPE]

37 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

Not really...they always show nothing

They generally show snow where it tends to snow, and nothing where it rarely happens. Not a bad tool when there is a favorable pattern for snow, and a discrete threat inside of 7 days. Otherwise it just reminds us we live too far south for snow.

[Chris78]

I think the only way we score over the next few weeks is to time something after an amped system  goes by and drags the boundary south of us.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think snow maps and snow probability maps are the most useless tool available

It really depends on what you're using them for. Verbatim and setting specific expectations is crazy. However, they are an excellent tool with probabilities. Especially when there is a disconnect. When the ens mean h5 looks ripe but member solutions aren't showing much it provides valuable insight that there are some issues that the mean is smoothing over

Ens mean h5 panels are obviously the most important of any long range panel. They provide evidence of a decent/snowable pattern potential or evidence that snow is very unlikely. I like to check under the hood of ens mean and snow meteos are the clearest and most concise chart you can get that info from. Nobody is going to like this post but here's the 12z eps snow meteo for the metar closest to my house. It looks downright depressing for primo climo.

 

You can immediately see that odds are close nil through the end of the month. When you have ops and ens showing almost no snowfall over the next 10 days it's often a reliable and accurate indicator to not expect much. Even d10-15 looks horrible and the gefs is actually worse... lol

One thing that kept bugging me a week ago when things looked more promising was the lack of any kind of signal that snowfall odds were above normal. There were a few days that looked pretty good but on the balance it looked pretty bad and here we are... staring at a 10 day period with little to no chance. I'm not doubting the eps or gefs snow output right now. Even when they are loaded with potential chances it still takes a good bit of luck to line things up. When they agree like this that any meaningful snowfall is unlikely it's not something you can ignore. 

[osfan24]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

It really depends on what you're using them for. Verbatim and setting specific expectations is crazy. However, they are an excellent tool with probabilities.

Ens mean h5 panels are obviously the most important of any long range panel. They provide evidence of a decent/snowable pattern potential or evidence that snow is very unlikely. I like to check under the hood of ens mean and snow meteos are the clearest and most concise chart you can get that info from. Nobody is going to like this post but here's the 12z eps snow meteo for the metar closest to my house. It looks downright depressing for primo climo.

 

You can immediately see that odds are close nil through the end of the month. When you have ops and ens showing almost no snowfall over the next 10 days it's a reliable and accurate indicator to not expect much. Even d10-15 looks horrible and the gefs is actually worse... lol

One thing that kept bugging me a week ago when things looked more promising was the lack of any kind of signal that snowfall odds were above normal. There were a few days that looked pretty good but on the balance it looked pretty bad and here we are... staring at a 10 day period with little to no chance. I'm not doubting the eps or gefs snow output right now. Even when they are loaded with potential chances it still takes a good bit of luck to line things up. When they agree like this that any meaningful snowfall is unlikely it's not something you can ignore. 

I thought there were a bunch of GEFS runs where people were going bonkers over the signal and the amount of snow they were putting out. I find GEFS snowfall maps to be completely worthless.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I thought there were a bunch of GEFS runs where people were going bonkers over the signal and the amount of snow they were putting out. I find GEFS snowfall maps to be completely worthless.

There were 2-3 days of good runs before guidance latched onto the canadian ridge then the wheels came off. The good runs were off and on iirc. Some looked good and others looked so so at best. They looked their best when today's storm looked like it would produce. Other than that member solutions were mostly shotgun style and not keying in on a specific event. I was too busy to look much this past week but every quick scan from Tues onwards looked progressively worse. Today is the lowest low. Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Something tells me...that IF we get any warning-level snow this winter at all...it's gonna be a foot that comes all at once...and then that's probably it, lol (ala 2006)

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Something tells me that IF we get any warning-level snow this winter at all...it's gonna be a foot that comes all at once...and then that's probably it, lol (ala 2006)

agreed.  this winter could still end up sneaky in that regard.

[Ji]

It really depends on what you're using them for. Verbatim and setting specific expectations is crazy. However, they are an excellent tool with probabilities. Especially when there is a disconnect. When the ens mean h5 looks ripe but member solutions aren't showing much it provides valuable insight that there are some issues that the mean is smoothing over
Ens mean h5 panels are obviously the most important of any long range panel. They provide evidence of a decent/snowable pattern potential or evidence that snow is very unlikely. I like to check under the hood of ens mean and snow meteos are the clearest and most concise chart you can get that info from. Nobody is going to like this post but here's the 12z eps snow meteo for the metar closest to my house. It looks downright depressing for primo climo.

 
You can immediately see that odds are close nil through the end of the month. When you have ops and ens showing almost no snowfall over the next 10 days it's often a reliable and accurate indicator to not expect much. Even d10-15 looks horrible and the gefs is actually worse... lol
One thing that kept bugging me a week ago when things looked more promising was the lack of any kind of signal that snowfall odds were above normal. There were a few days that looked pretty good but on the balance it looked pretty bad and here we are... staring at a 10 day period with little to no chance. I'm not doubting the eps or gefs snow output right now. Even when they are loaded with potential chances it still takes a good bit of luck to line things up. When they agree like this that any meaningful snowfall is unlikely it's not something you can ignore. 

You are forgetting the multiple posts including yourself where you kept posting stuff and calling it weenie runs. There was alot of goodies floating out there and now it's all gone

[Weather Will]

GEFS 18z Hug the 5 percent chance for next weekend in P20.

[Bob Chill]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

You are forgetting the multiple posts including yourself where you kept posting stuff and calling it weenie runs. There was alot of goodies floating out there and now it's all gone

A good portion of what made those runs weenieish was today's storm. Lol. It was the only storm that had decent consensus. At one point over 50% of the eps members has 2" or more of snowfall. Beyond that was shotgun style. Those panels looked great from a distance but I realized today that shoveling rain sucks. 

I'm actually disinterested in long range now. Winter has shown its hand... the struggle is real 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

A good portion of what made those runs weenieish was today's storm. Lol. It was the only storm that had decent consensus. At one point over 50% of the eps members has 2" or more of snowfall. Beyond that was shotgun style. Those panels looked great from a distance but I realized today that shoveling rain sucks. 

I'm actually disinterested in long range now. Winter has shown its hand... the struggle is real 

Pretty much.  Not much else to do, maybe check in and see what's going on over the next couple of weeks and hope we can score something for Feb/Mar at some point.  It's about as bad and boring as things can get right now...at least, I don't think the pattern can get much worse than a shutout to near shutout look.  What, stronger ridging than anticipated with 60 degrees instead of 40s or 50s?  

[osfan24]

I'm almost to the point of taking some time off from here for a bit. Seems like the blinds are closed for the foreseeable future. It's getting close to the point where it's just time to root for a 2016-type fluke where we get super lucky and get a monster storm and call it a winter. Probably the only way to save this winter.

[BristowWx]

Of course none of us know what will really happen when we count our chips in April.  We could get a monster storm on Feb 29th.  Especially now that we are all but giving up on 18 Jan.  For good reason of course but the models and the atmosphere is fickle.  

[CAPE]

Just now, osfan24 said:

I'm almost to the point of taking some time off from here for a bit. Seems like the blinds are closed for the foreseeable future. It's getting close to the point where it's just time to root for a 2016-type fluke where we get super lucky and get a monster storm and call it a winter. Probably the only way to save this winter.

I am with Bob. Disinterested at this point. I will keep a casual eye on the means, but the way the next week or so looks, I may start to root for futility lol. Probably be two thirds through met winter without breaking an inch in my yard.

[Ralph Wiggum]

So when @psuhoffman said if things still look bleak on Jan 15 it's pretty much time to pack it in and being that we are 3 days past that date and .... yeah. Has the time come?

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So when @psuhoffman said if things still look bleak on Jan 15 it's pretty much time to pack it in and being that we are 3 days past that date and .... yeah. Has the time come?

The whole forum jumps at once?  Man the reaper would be fat like a lion who ate an elephant.  He would have to jump out of boredom. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So when @psuhoffman said if things still look bleak on Jan 15 it's pretty much time to pack it in and being that we are 3 days past that date and .... yeah. Has the time come?

Things look less bleak, but still not good for snow chances.

Two things of note looking at the advertised LR pattern from today's runs, subject to change ofc(for better or worse) are hints of a PNA ridge, and currently not seeing any signs of persistent SE ridge. Maybe a trend towards lower heights to our NE, but its way out there. Everything else pretty much totally sucks lol.