Winter 2020-2021 Outlook

[Upstate Tiger]

9 hours ago, jburns said:

I am one of those old people of which you speak.  You asked for it. It gets earlier every year.

Top Six Southern Winter Folklore Sayings

1. If you count the morning fogs in August you will know how many August mornings were foggy.

2. A heavy crop of acorns will lead to fatter than average squirrels next spring.

3. If it thunders in winter, 10 days later it will have happened 10 days ago.

4. If you study the bands of the wooly worm you will know how many are brown and how many are black.

5. Snow that lays on the ground for more than three days is dirty.

6. A ring around the moon means your Lasik surgeon screwed up.

•  

You forgot that "if there is frost on a cloudy morning the sunrise will not be visible that day."  

[magpiemaniac]

Now that we’re in the “-ber” months, I’m itching for some good winter weather discussion.

[mackerel_sky]

23 hours ago, magpiemaniac said:

Now that we’re in the “-ber” months, I’m itching for some good winter weather discussion.

JB going +3 to +4 above normal, for basically the whole E coast, on his preliminary winter forecast. A La Niña looks likely, I’m guessing the winter can’t be worse than the previous 2?

[wncsnow]

5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

JB going +3 to +4 above normal, for basically the whole E coast, on his preliminary winter forecast. A La Niña looks likely, I’m guessing the winter can’t be worse than the previous 2?

His winter forecasts range from awful to pathetic, so I consider this good news

[The Alchemist]

Looks like Nina is inbound.

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[magpiemaniac]

On 9/3/2020 at 1:48 PM, wncsnow said:

His winter forecasts range from awful to pathetic, so I consider this good news

When it’s all done, reality ends up being the opposite of what the so-called experts predict, so I’d like to see predictions for a torching winter.

[griteater]

Posted my winter outlook here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54042-griteaters-winter-outlook-20-21/

[BullCityWx]

Who knows if this is right but the CFS seems excited about late December for the last four runs. 

[Wow]

just as HOTMAIL's dreams foretold

(I hope there's at least one of you know catch this inside joke from many, many years ago)

[Tar Heel Snow]

Wasn't sure where to post this (and wanted to hear from folks who are more well-versed in weather in our area), but what's the reason that a system like the one starting over Texas at the beginning of this gif pushes off northeast rather than "digging down" over the SE as I've heard on this forum over the years? What's steering this? the high in Quebec? What would it take to make something like this go favorably for us?

[Alfoman]

18 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Wasn't sure where to post this (and wanted to hear from folks who are more well-versed in weather in our area), but what's the reason that a system like the one starting over Texas at the beginning of this gif pushes off northeast rather than "digging down" over the SE as I've heard on this forum over the years? What's steering this? the high in Quebec? What would it take to make something like this go favorably for us?

The ridge over the Atlantic is strong enough to steer system NE as it gets amplified in the favorable quadrant of the trough which pulls it in that direction simultaneously. Although, this solution was entirely different than the previous run (night and day) so disregard exact positioning that far in the future. It would be better to focus on the overall larger scale pattern, but even that is tough to pinpoint. For example, here is the 6Z v the 12z GFS for the same time frame at the very ends of their respective runs. 

 

[Tar Heel Snow]

19 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

The ridge over the Atlantic is strong enough to steer system NE as it gets amplified in the favorable quadrant of the trough which pulls it in that direction simultaneously. Although, this solution was entirely different than the previous run (night and day) so disregard exact positioning that far in the future. It would be better to focus on the overall larger scale pattern, but even that is tough to pinpoint. For example, here is the 6Z v the 12z GFS for the same time frame at the very ends of their respective runs. 

 

That makes sense, thanks! I've been trying to wean myself off of the whole "just look at the precip type maps" thing especially that far out because they tell you so little. Especially as I try to learn more about what you can learn from the other maps. But as for my specific question, that's definitely really helpful. And good overall guidance too!