TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 No posts in an hour tell you exactly where this is headed. Gfs is very meh.... doesn’t look like anyone in SNE would see more than a few inches with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: No posts in an hour tell you exactly where this is headed. Gfs is very meh.... doesn’t look like anyone in SNE would see more than a few inches with that look Lol a couple inches would increase my seasonal total by like 40%. We take every flake at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Hoth said: Lol a couple inches would increase my seasonal total by like 40%. We take every flake at this point. Yeah it’s mid Jan. The novelty of 1-2” has worn off. I mean.... it is what it is, and if it doesn’t rain it’ll look nice... but meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I think the lack of posts on this storm is just that it's fairly uninteresting and hasn't changed a lot. It's been like a 2-5" for literally days for most of the forum....a run here or there strays maybe an inch or two from that range, but that's it. We haven't seen solutions that give 10-12" that sometimes come with SWFEs. The lack of a really solid vort and DPVA leaves me thinking that there's no real reason to expect a big positive bust either. I'd prob go 2-4/3-5 and call it a day. An outside chance at a 6 spot for a few if that crosshair sig verifies and there's a good band for a couple hours that drops a quick 3-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Yup, everything on track. Not much to discuss unless some crazy changes occur. The nam at some point will be good for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Full steam ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup, everything on track. Not much to discuss unless some crazy changes occur. The nam at some point will be good for that. The NAM will probably have a run or two inside of 36 hours that dupes everyone into thinking we'll get 6-8" on a big WCB thump, and then it will go back to a more sheared mess that actually makes sense given the upper air look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Full cleveland steamer ahead. fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The NAM will probably have a run or two inside of 36 hours that dupes everyone into thinking we'll get 6-8" on a big WCB thump, and then it will go back to a more sheared mess that actually makes sense given the upper air look. Will just to be clear, are you talkinng SNE (which I assume) or CNE NNE as well. I'm expecting 4-8 here just based on what I've seen from the computer runs the last 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Probably soon time to start the countdown to May 1st thread...and this year's is extra special since I'm 95% confident in going to OK!!!!!!!!! This is what I'm thinking for CT. 3-4'' for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 There is like a 3 hr window where it could come down good at any given location. Otherwise, it's NBD. Just be happy it's cold enough for many on SE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Will just to be clear, are you talkinng SNE (which I assume) or CNE NNE as well. I'm expecting 4-8 here just based on what I've seen from the computer runs the last 2-3 days. 8 might be optimistic there. I think the forecast is about the same for SNE and NNE...aside from SNE coastline which would get less. Maybe enhance NNE by an inch? Two? There's nothing overly impressive in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I would not forecast over 4-6" right now up here unless something changes but it has not for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Probably soon time to start the countdown to May 1st thread...and this year's is extra special since I'm 95% confident in going to OK!!!!!!!!! This is what I'm thinking for CT. 3-4'' for most Decent map. But who cares about the May 1st thread when it's Jan 16th. Hopefully we can get the winter going in a decent direction next week. There's plenty of time for spring when spring gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I would sell 8" Mark. All the dynamics are well NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Decent map. But who cares about the May 1st thread when it's Jan 16th. Hopefully we can get the winter going in a decent direction next week. There's plenty of time for spring when spring gets here. It's the equivalent to spring training or training camp...build up the mindset towards severe and and discussing past events (this is the practice) to fine tune skills before the season starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Decent map. But who cares about the May 1st thread when it's Jan 16th. Hopefully we can get the winter going in a decent direction next week. There's plenty of time for spring when spring gets here. We're rolling into late Winter, so May isn't far away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Winter of 2015 didn't really start until January 24th. Then we got hit pretty hard for 6 weeks. A storm about every 4 days. Not sure if that could happen this year though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Officially 1/2 way thru January and sitting at a +10.3F mtd. Let's see what the 2nd 1/2 does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, DFRI said: Winter of 2015 didn't really start until January 24th. Then we got hit pretty hard for 6 weeks. A storm about every 4 days. Not sure if that could happen this year though.... That was rare, however, I like your thinking, things would have to line up just right again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 GFS for BDL. That's a pretty good period of moderate-to-heavy snow for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4-6" call it a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 What’s up with Champlain valley? Is that downslopping and shadowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 What I'm wondering is why the Kuchera maps are depicting 20:1 ratios when that is very unlikely in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Fozz said: What I'm wondering is why the Kuchera maps are depicting 20:1 ratios when that is very unlikely in reality. b/c it's a ridiculous method designed to enhance the wet dreams of weenies. yeah let's multiply a snowfall ratio by model QPF and call it a snow forecast....woohoooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1-2 if i'm lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, correnjim1 said: 1-2 flakes if i'm lucky FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 8 might be optimistic there. I think the forecast is about the same for SNE and NNE...aside from SNE coastline which would get less. Maybe enhance NNE by an inch? Two? There's nothing overly impressive in this one. Yeah I’m on the 3-5” train up here... looks like a quick burst of like a third of an inch of QPF then dry slot. I could maybe see SVT/SNH with a scattering of 5-6” amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 40 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Officially 1/2 way thru January and sitting at a +10.3F mtd. Let's see what the 2nd 1/2 does. 43" and change here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 48 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: We're rolling into late Winter, so May isn't far away. Late winter? Midpoint of heating season here (by HDDs) averages Jan 20/21, extremes 1/13 (09-10) and 1/28 (06-07.). For snowfall it's Jan 31/Feb 1. IMO, late winter arrives about a month from now. Yeah I’m on the 3-5” train up here That's probably a good guess for here as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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