moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Congrats on the Algebra LOL--I guess you can only get totals and not specific time frames. Do you have a map that show's ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I'd definitely keep the range under warning criteria. Maybe go as high as 6 elevated deep interior...like 3-6 there and 2-5 everywhere else except the beaches which maybe I go 1-2....if we can maintain that vortmax a little better before it gets shredded then I could see some 5-7 type totals but right now lost guidance is not buying that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd definitely keep the range under warning criteria. Maybe go as high as 6 elevated deep interior...like 3-6 there and 2-5 everywhere else except the beaches which maybe I go 1-2....if we can maintain that vortmax a little better before it gets shredded then I could see some 5-7 type totals but right now lost guidance is not buying that idea. The winter of WWA rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 hours ago, mreaves said: I hope. I may need to make my first trip to the County if we don’t hurry up. Northern Door motel in Fort Kent, ride right from the parking lot, plug-ins for engine heaters, walk to Rock's diner. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: For such a crappy setup, guidance is pretty cold. I'll take 1-3 in one of the worst winter stretches known to man. Looks like the best dynamics are well west of us. If we can see the primary lose some strength and have some semblance of a secondary, some may score anther 1-2" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, tamarack said: Northern Door motel in Fort Kent, ride right from the parking lot, plug-ins for engine heaters, walk to Rock's diner. Ya that's a cool place. Lots of nice little lodges and hotels to stay at up there. Long Lake Motor Inn in St. Agatha is Excellent. Martins Motel in Madawaska is also a nice little place. And They're all ride right out of the parking lot/trail comes right to the place up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 29 minutes ago, tamarack said: Northern Door motel in Fort Kent, ride right from the parking lot, plug-ins for engine heaters, walk to Rock's diner. I gotta add Caribou Motor Inn to the list. Decent facility and the food (brewery) across the street is very good. Ride right from the door. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Looks like the best dynamics are well west of us. If we can see the primary lose some strength and have some semblance of a secondary, some may score anther 1-2" Wasn’t Wiz saying yesterday that In this particular case we almost want a stronger primary to fuel better WAA when running up against the antecedent airmass? Conceding Secondary redevelopment(not too many runs depicting this scenario)do we lose dynamics to a weaker primary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Lava Rock said: I gotta add Caribou Motor Inn to the list. Decent facility and the food (brewery) across the street is very good. Ride right from the door. Oh ya that's a very nice place too...a little more luxurious than the aforementioned also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Wasn’t Wiz saying yesterday that In this particular case we almost want a stronger primary to fuel better WAA when running up against the antecedent airmass? Conceding Secondary redevelopment(not too many runs depicting this scenario)do we lose dynamics to a weaker primary? Yes Wiz was saying Exactly that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Hints that the prospects for SNE are diminishing Hint #1: Fewer than 1 page of new posts by 9:00a.m. Hint #2: A third of the posts that are made revolve around yelp reviews of motels in northern Maine for sledders. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: Hints that the prospects for SNE are diminishing Hint #1: Fewer than 1 page of new posts by 9:00a.m. Hint #2: A third of the posts that are made revolve around yelp reviews of motels in northern Maine for sledders. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Hints that the prospects for SNE are diminishing Hint #1: Fewer than 1 page of new posts by 9:00a.m. Hint #2: A third of the posts that are made revolve around yelp reviews of motels in northern Maine for sledders. I just don't think much has changed in the past 48 hours....it's really just an advisory event and hasn't shifted in any one direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: Hints that the prospects for SNE are diminishing Hint #1: Fewer than 1 page of new posts by 9:00a.m. Hint #2: A third of the posts that are made revolve around yelp reviews of motels in northern Maine for sledders. I’m not seeing that from a modeling standpoint, looks like we are holding serve for now. I’ll give you the post count and snowmobile reviews however. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Hints that the prospects for SNE are diminishing Hint #1: Fewer than 1 page of new posts by 9:00a.m. Hint #2: A third of the posts that are made revolve around yelp reviews of motels in northern Maine for sledders. Lmao.... I think everybody gets a couple inches for sure. This was always a rather tenuous set up. Scott and Will said this could easily be a non event or slop back on Saturday. Maybe we score some time next week, when the pattern supposedly improves?? Or maybe not? It's a crap shoot this year for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Wasn’t Wiz saying yesterday that In this particular case we almost want a stronger primary to fuel better WAA when running up against the antecedent airmass? Conceding Secondary redevelopment(not too many runs depicting this scenario)do we lose dynamics to a weaker primary? No clue what Wizzy said. I'd prefer a dying primary with a developing secondary over a deepening primary and no secondary. The primary is so far west, we lose the lift to really produce much if any good snow the further south and east you are away from the primary. This is a good storm for upstate NY over into C/NNE. Kinda shitty for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 So 3-6 in ORH with a short mild up to maybe 38, then plummets back down. Sounds like a boilerplate in the making. Good base for something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: No clue what Wizzy said. I'd prefer a dying primary with a developing secondary over a deepening primary and no secondary. The primary is so far west, we lose the lift to really produce much if any good snow the further south and east you are away from the primary. This is a good storm for upstate NY over into C/NNE. Kinda shitty for us. It looks pretty mundane in NNE too....it's almost totally uniform across the entire forum until you get to maybe central Maine where some redevelopment enhances things a bit....not counting the moose fart upslope stuff behind it of course. We know that will be there in this system. There might be one semi-enhanced band from like Mitch over to S NH/S ME. But that could be 25-30 miles either direction...who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It looks pretty mundane in NNE too....it's almost totally uniform across the entire forum until you get to maybe central Maine where some redevelopment enhances things a bit....not counting the moose fart upslope stuff behind it of course. We know that will be there in this system. There might be one semi-enhanced band from like Mitch over to S NH/S ME. But that could be 25-30 miles either direction...who knows. You can see the enhancement along the WF over NYS closer to the primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: I gotta add Caribou Motor Inn to the list. Decent facility and the food (brewery) across the street is very good. Ride right from the door. That's where i usually stay when i go up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It looks pretty mundane in NNE too....it's almost totally uniform across the entire forum until you get to maybe central Maine where some redevelopment enhances things a bit....not counting the moose fart upslope stuff behind it of course. We know that will be there in this system. There might be one semi-enhanced band from like Mitch over to S NH/S ME. But that could be 25-30 miles either direction...who knows. Today's may be better then saturday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Today's may be better then saturday's. Today was a solid clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Today was a solid clipper. Yes, Some were calling it a SWFE but its not, Getting some enhancement from a trough too, Euro at 06z looked good here though for Saturday, About the same as this one today, Nam, Not so much but its the Nam, Not much has changed over the last two days on the Saturday storm on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I might go with 3-6'' across the northern half of CT...this isn't a terrible look. At least you're getting the best lift into the DGZ. I know there is the suspicion of using snow rations far out but I still think snow ratios are going to be pretty solid...certainly better than the usual 8:1 to 10:1 and I think that needs to be really taken into account here with potential totals...if the ratios were going to be poop..1-3'' to 2-4'' I would certainly see. The big key is going to be a very small window when we get some pretty solid lift...it's this small window where the snow ratios are going to be maximized and we'll see snowfall rates around 1.5''/HR. Maybe this doesn't occur over a widespread area but there will be some localized areas which perform well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I might go with 3-6'' across the northern half of CT...this isn't a terrible look. At least you're getting the best lift into the DGZ. I know there is the suspicion of using snow rations far out but I still think snow ratios are going to be pretty solid...certainly better than the usual 8:1 to 10:1 and I think that needs to be really taken into account here with potential totals...if the ratios were going to be poop..1-3'' to 2-4'' I would certainly see. The big key is going to be a very small window when we get some pretty solid lift...it's this small window where the snow ratios are going to be maximized and we'll see snowfall rates around 1.5''/HR. Maybe this doesn't occur over a widespread area but there will be some localized areas which perform well. Is 4-6 the best case scenario If the lift and ratio’s ...go well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Is 4-6 the best case scenario If the lift and ratio’s ...go well There is probably very little room to get much more than 6 or 7'' unless something crazy happens and mlvl lift is much stronger. One thing I also kinda like is I don't think the precip shield will be all blotchy...it should be a nice consolidated area of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Both the NAM and GFS have a good crosshair signature across SNE. We'll see what they show tomorrow....if it stays, then yeah...someone could get a quick 3-4" in the first 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Might be a bit bullish, but beginning to think 3-5” isn’t out of the realm of possibility for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Might be a bit bullish, but beginning to think 3-5” isn’t out of the realm of possibility for my area even if it is just 1-2", I just want it to stay mainly frozen. I do not want to go into our "cold" stretch with frozen, brown ground. At least keep it white for a few days... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both the NAM and GFS have a good crosshair signature across SNE. We'll see what they show tomorrow....if it stays, then yeah...someone could get a quick 3-4" in the first 3 hours. This always becomes a big question in these setups. We've seen times before where models are aggressive with this notion only to back off in the final 24-36 hours. We've also seen times where they become more impressive as we get closer. Part of me feels the degree of lift is being underplayed. I know we're far removed from the main low and the shortwave doesn't look very favorable, however, there are ways to compensate for that. If dynamic cooling is occurring (which still seems to be the case) that would indicate air that is rising rather rapidly. In this case we see a temperature response at 850/925 of cooling during the day Saturday...meanwhile in the mid-levels the delta T's are not as impressive...this would indicate there should be increasing frontogenesis over our area...I would think. My wager is we see models ramp up a bit with lift as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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