dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I'd sell good ratios on any WAA SWFE style system... 7-9:1 seems to be the climo favored results from these type of events. That pretty much sums it up unless we get a transition to a Miller B which is not in the cards it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You came to the thread late but have been all over this wrt to how the dynamics could make this a more impactful system and I agree. The signal has been there for a while and the models are starting to handle it along with its implications 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I'd sell good ratios on any WAA SWFE style system... 7-9:1 seems to be the climo favored results from these type of events. But this isn’t a typical SWFE. I want to start building up a database of events so only have memory to go by but when you look or think back at previous SWFE’s which have over performed one glaring thing in common was how cold the air mass is ahead of it. it’s not like we’re toasting the mid levels here...it’s pretty damn cold when the best forcing/precip arrive. The question is just do we have enough lift into the DGZ to maximize snow ratios...that’s the only question here...nothing thermal profile related. I don’t have my laptop fired up to see what 18z GFS Bufkit shows but 12z Bufkit at BDL had decent lift into the SGZ. if that verifies we get a 3-HR period of 1.5-2”/HR rates or so. The majority of this snow will be fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Pretty meh from BOX (below). GYX now has me all snow (plus they're calling for 4-7 tonight) ftw. Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night Rain and snow, becoming all rain after midnight, then gradually ending. Low around 27. South wind 7 to 9 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 There's actually a pretty good crosshair sig on the GFS but it's still 72-84 hours out. Can't see euro omega but the temps in the 600mb range are pretty nice which is often where that initial burst of lift is. So it's possible we get some nice ratios but I'd be careful about counting on ratios this far out. I typically never forecast high ratios unless it's slam dunk and inside 36 hours or so. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's actually a pretty good crosshair sig on the GFS but it's still 72-84 hours out. Can't see euro omega but the temps in the 600mb range are pretty nice which is often where that initial burst of lift is. So it's possible we get some nice ratios but I'd be careful about counting on ratios this far out. I typically never forecast high ratios unless it's slam dunk and inside 36 hours or so. Here is Euro Omega (700) at 00z Sunday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's actually a pretty good crosshair sig on the GFS but it's still 72-84 hours out. Can't see euro omega but the temps in the 600mb range are pretty nice which is often where that initial burst of lift is. So it's possible we get some nice ratios but I'd be careful about counting on ratios this far out. I typically never forecast high ratios unless it's slam dunk and inside 36 hours or so. It’s certainly possible... there is a very cold air mass in front of it. I always worry the best lift will be below the DGZ in these events with a primary low back to the west, ripping mid level WAA further north than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Holy shit Nick Getting even stronger. 70 cm of snow 28 inches and winds sustained near hurricane force with gusts near Cat 2. Might rival their strongest 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Getting even stronger. 70 cm of snow 28 inches and winds sustained near hurricane force with gusts near Cat 2. Might rival their strongest I posted this in the wrong thread, this is tomorrow’s storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It’s certainly possible... there is a very cold air mass in front of it. I always worry the best lift will be below the DGZ in these events with a primary low back to the west, ripping mid level WAA further north than expected. When NYC is initially in the ball game oftentimes we start off cold enough for good ratios (15:1) and then transition to the crappier 9:1. The problem is the higher density snow on top can ruin your fluff a bit whereas fluff just floats on top of a dense base. You just have to think of the ratios almost as another level of ptype transition zones...i.e. fluff > normal snow > dense sugar > sleet > frz rain > rain. I find I tend to be near 0F at the sfc up here at the onset to pull off a period of fluff in a SWFE. Of course that's just my general rule of thumb...they don't all behave the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Pretty meh from BOX (below). GYX now has me all snow (plus they're calling for 4-7 tonight) ftw. Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night Rain and snow, becoming all rain after midnight, then gradually ending. Low around 27. South wind 7 to 9 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. That's sucks it gonna rain in bath. Wth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/first-call-saturday-night-winter-storm.html Final Call Friday night. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 18z euro colder. Nice 3-6” for CT. Lol, just saw the clown maps....6 inches for us, I will take it but we all know 2-4 is more realistic, unless the Nam was actually on to something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 Ray’s early map looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Lol, just saw the clown maps....6 inches for us, I will take it but we all know 2-4 is more realistic, unless the Nam was actually on to something? Link to clown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 17 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: Pretty meh from BOX (below). GYX now has me all snow (plus they're calling for 4-7 tonight) ftw. Saturday Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Night Rain and snow, becoming all rain after midnight, then gradually ending. Low around 27. South wind 7 to 9 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. That's sucks it gonna rain in bath. Wth lol ... the forecast shown is for his home in ORH. He be snowin' in Bath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: lol ... the forecast shown is for his home in ORH. He be snowin' in Bath Johns confused, Because Mike is confusing.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Lol, just saw the clown maps....6 inches for us, I will take it but we all know 2-4 is more realistic, unless the Nam was actually on to something? I said a few days ago there’s been a tendency for guidance to spit out colder solutions for the 2nd event as the 1st event approaches overhead to only then tick back warmer as the 1st event departs to our NE. A net gain from d5/d6. This one could be different but I’m not buying warning snows yet... unless the warm ticking trend my weenie theorizes doesn’t occur tomorrow or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 21 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Link to clown? paywalled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Spanks45 said: paywalled.... Oh ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 NAM warmer at the coast, the low develops later and closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Oh ok. Here you go bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: That pretty much sums it up unless we get a transition to a Miller B which is not in the cards it seems. SWFEs usually provide nice base building snow. Or rebuilding as the case may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Thank you! Widespread 1-3/2-4. 3-6” way inland/CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, mreaves said: SWFEs usually provide nice base building snow. Or rebuilding as the case may be. We build. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: We build. I hope. I may need to make my first trip to the County if we don’t hurry up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, mreaves said: I hope. I may need to make my first trip to the County if we don’t hurry up. You would love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Thank you! Widespread 1-3/2-4. 3-6” way inland/CT. What’s way inland? I think even Boston is good for 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: What’s way inland? I think even Boston is good for 2-4. Just west of you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 13 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Just west of you. Well done! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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