qg_omega Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I could see 5-8” up in this neck of the woods once you tally in all the residual terrain light snow on Sunday. Might be tough to shut off the terrain snow for a bit. I’m thinking 3-5” initial burst and 2-3” fluffer nutter topping from -SN most of Sunday. Its frigid at -6F and highs only expected in the teens...I’m getting on the train of slightly higher ratios than climo for SWFE. You think similar lake placid? Thinking 3 to 6 here, was surprised to see almost 10 inches of pack on the ground here but the hotel is just NW of the town of lake placid and sits at 2k feet. Just beautiful up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 48 minutes ago, dryslot said: This is what GYX is thinking, This is 1:00am here when some of the heavier rates should be overhead.......... Does BTV make those ratio maps as well? I looked around a bit on their site but didn’t see them - it would be great to monitor what they suggest vs. what analyses reveal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 someone start and obs thread soon, should start snowing in western parts in 2-3 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, J.Spin said: Does BTV make those ratio maps as well? I looked around a bit on their site but didn’t see them - it would be great to monitor what they suggest vs. what analyses reveal. I don't see it J on there site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just noise on guidance this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 If the secondary were able to get going just hour sooner (that's a big step at this timeframe,.i.e, ain't happening James), there'd be a couple more inches for a few of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: All kidding aside, Its a quick moving system about 12hrs or so with a good front end thump so i can see 3-5" for many with some areas in the 5-7" range where you get some enhancement from the CF, Up here its all falling at night so it will be plenty cold and ratios should be a little better then your typical SWFE, Start time here is between 4-7 pm and will be pretty much over by 7-8 am or so to just some left over fzdz. It’s about a 6 -7 hour storm south of MHT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 HRRR is really putrid with qpf. It's still going in ME/NH beyond here, but this the entire duration for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 NWS cut back on the Snowfall accumulation here to 2-4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Looks like it's hitting PHL like a wall. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dix&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: NWS cut back on the Snowfall accumulation here to 2-4". Still sitting at 3-7 (p/c) and 4-6 (zfp) for mi casa in ORH. Not sure the upper end will be hit, at least on the p/c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: HRRR is really putrid with qpf. It's still going in ME/NH beyond here, but this the entire duration for SNE. Is it though? Looks like most other guidance. Maybe the GFS/12km NAM have a bit higher in WMA. Looks almost spot on to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: NWS cut back on the Snowfall accumulation here to 2-4". Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Is it though? Looks like most other guidance. Maybe the GFS/12km NAM have a bit higher in WMA. Looks almost spot on to the Euro. In a modest event like this, hundredths mean a lot. Maybe my eyes are bad, but there seem to be a lot of .2's in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nope Did you post it 3 times for emphasis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 12 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: NWS cut back on the Snowfall accumulation here to 2-4". The rather narrow window of time this low pressure will be nearby, combined with the amount of low level dry air to be overcome, raised questions about snow totals. Do not have enough confidence to lower Winter Storm Warnings to Winter Weather Advisories at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 My p/c was 3-7" early this morning, now it's 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 28 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: NWS cut back on the Snowfall accumulation here to 2-4". Average should be around 4 or 5 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Nope We'll they did on my p/c. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: We'll they did on my p/c. P/C is useless in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: P/C is useless in my opinion I'm not expecting more than 3-4", maybe the cold air provides more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 hrrr looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Danbury with a 6 and Waterbury with a 5....leaves me with a 5.5" on that forecast....looks great, hope they are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: NWS cut back on the Snowfall accumulation here to 2-4". ? The WWA just updated at 10:30 still says 3-6". The latest map is still 4-6" Nothing was cut back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Never use P&C. It's weird. To the left of Enfield it says 3-5, to the right, to the south and to the north. Makes zero sense why that little dot would be 2-4. Just use the Zone Forecasts if you are going to use NWS forecasts. They are at least generated by a human. Or just the WSW (winter weather) products Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Agree on not using the P&C. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Didn’t know anyone even used or looked at point and click ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 No one should, it's truly awful. Sorry NWS but it is. I use them exclusively for weather information (obviously besides models when im not making my own forecast). I read the AFDs, all the products and Zone ZFPS but never, never P&C. Zones are what everyone should use, i tell that to the general public...click on "Zone Area Forecast for X County". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Anyways forecast looks on track. Looks fairly uniform. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: 18 degrees. Local station said only 1 to 3. You're probably watching teh wrong station. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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