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January 18-19 SWFE


HoarfrostHubb
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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Some really cold air to work with.  My first sub zero morning of the season upcoming. 

It's -11F here... letting the dog out for the last time for the night.  She doesn't linger outside long in the negative teens.

HIE was -16F at 9pm...wow.  It's f'in cold out there.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the speed of this thing is a real hinderance on upside. It's going to be flying through. 

Yeah I spoke about that speed issue in the other thread… Id even argue that this thing would probably find its way to 33° and turn to rain if it were a slower mover. 

Speed is a snow lovers ally in this case

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Liked the trend of this thing just shutting off and not a changeover to rain the past few days. Hopefully things will start swinging our way with the models as the winter goes on. Think OKX see's more than BOS in this one.

Hoping for a solid 3" here at least. Sad that hoping for that is what this winter has come to :facepalm:  haha

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Final Call before starts for verification. Bumped up everything 1". Decided to go with a narrow 2-3 range for the SE corner instead of the typical 1-3 due to the fact i think 2" is the basement even for GON. Most of the state falls in 3-5 range i believe with some inland areas of new haven, fairfield and litchfield county approaching 6". Some amounts near 7" are not out the question and was indicated in the most favorable area, western interior CT in the hilly terrain.

Hopefully this was a good move and i don't regret nudging up the numbers a hair.

 

01.16.20_snow_forecast_2.jpg

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41 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Liked the trend of this thing just shutting off and not a changeover to rain the past few days. Hopefully things will start swinging our way with the models as the winter goes on. Think OKX see's more than BOS in this one.

Hoping for a solid 3" here at least. Sad that hoping for that is what this winter has come to :facepalm:  haha

You mean OKX=Upton more than Boston? I very much doubt it unless it really does come in like a wall down here. We run the risk of the fairly typical in SWFE hour long moderate snow burst followed by mini dryslot where we warm up on southerly winds then white rain/rain/slop when the real stuff comes in. OKX is pretty far east in Suffolk County, susceptible to the torch on south winds and will warm up fast if that lull happens. If you mean NYC it could happen if that precip min is real in eastern Mass. I think a chunk of the storm is rain down here but we have more precip overall. The southerly winds will eventually win out even with this airmass, it could spike up to 40 for a while. It could be a lousy inch or so if the lull happens or it really could be 3-4" if it pounds for a few hours and the warmth can be held off. Our max down here is 3-4" pretty sure. At least it shouldn't be a long enough period of rain to wash it all away but it'll still be quite forgettable. 

BOS will still be ahead of us in the seasonal snow totals anyway regardless. :axe:  Lousy winter all around though so far.

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25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Look at that beast. Hard to believe a Low headed into the Great Lakes is possibly going to give NYC isn't biggest snowfall of the year and Southern CT a 3-6"er

RAD_MOS_NAT_8KM_L2WINTER_ANI.gif

That’s cuz this high to the north is a beast...it’s frigid out there.  I’m in northern Maine..it’s -14f right now.  

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GYX sticking with the WWA.  Not too surprised--it's borderline. Bottom line is people know it's going to snow. 

The forecast is for 4-7".  With all the models except the RGEM showing .5+ of qpf in much of the state,  I think many could verify closer to the high-end map.  The ratios will need to be high for that though.  The precip is going to cut off so quickly on this thing.

EDIT:  I just read the AFD.   I think they're expecting a portion of the .5+ to evaporate in the dry air.  I believe the models include (by design or just by reality) those evaporating amounts in their total.  Please correct me if I'm wrong on that. 

image.thumb.png.fd25a9c77d990accc22b47950c7d9ae3.pngimage.thumb.png.ac927d7a00aebb7dac2a3dbba355357c.png

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GYX sticking with the WWA.  Not too surprised--it's borderline. Bottom line is people know it's going to snow. 
The forecast is for 4-7".  With all the models except the RGEM showing .5+ of qpf in much of the state,  I think many could verify closer to the high-end map.  The ratios will need to be high for that though.  The precip is going to cut off so quickly on this thing.
EDIT:  I just read the AFD.   I think they're expecting a portion of the .5+ to evaporate in the dry air.  I believe the models include (by design or just by reality) those evaporating amounts in their total.  Please correct me if I'm wrong on that. 
image.thumb.png.fd25a9c77d990accc22b47950c7d9ae3.pngimage.thumb.png.ac927d7a00aebb7dac2a3dbba355357c.png
Those maps look just like the Thurs event where they had the mtns getting more and it ended up being reversed
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4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:
1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:
GYX sticking with the WWA.  Not too surprised--it's borderline. Bottom line is people know it's going to snow. 
The forecast is for 4-7".  With all the models except the RGEM showing .5+ of qpf in much of the state,  I think many could verify closer to the high-end map.  The ratios will need to be high for that though.  The precip is going to cut off so quickly on this thing.
EDIT:  I just read the AFD.   I think they're expecting a portion of the .5+ to evaporate in the dry air.  I believe the models include (by design or just by reality) those evaporating amounts in their total.  Please correct me if I'm wrong on that. 
image.thumb.png.fd25a9c77d990accc22b47950c7d9ae3.pngimage.thumb.png.ac927d7a00aebb7dac2a3dbba355357c.png

Those maps look just like the Thurs event where they had the mtns getting more and it ended up being reversed

We pray.

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