The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 BOX AM Shift: BOX PM Shift: AM Shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Makes sense.... there is very little confidence anyone will see warning amounts... let alone a large enough majority to justify a warning. I promise you though... a few people will get 6 or 7” and you’ll here “blehhhhhhhhh, should have been a warning, we got 7 inches!!” Is that "blehhhhh" a Felger reference? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is that "blehhhhh" a Felger reference? LOL I love that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Is that "blehhhhh" a Felger reference? Just now, CoastalWx said: LOL I love that. Yup... lol. All I can hear in my head too is him saying it. Hopefully this trends a little juicier and there is a lot of blehhhhing going on Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc. Pfft. It means EVERYTHING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Latest BOX & OKX Maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Those maps look pretty good to me. Might be a little juicy off to the northwest...though the orographic spots will get additional snows on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yup... lol. All I can hear in my head too is him saying it. Hopefully this trends a little juicier and there is a lot of blehhhhing going on Sunday I love that DB. Still like 4-7" for 495 zone...shouldn't much change at all from first call. Will post Final Call tonight. 7" will be pretty isolated imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: you have certainly changed your tune, wrote this off pretty much a couple days ago, then 2-4 then 3-5 now 6-7. 8-10 tomorrow morning? You never adjust. Sometimes it’s ok to take amounts up especially as things have ramped up today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Those maps look pretty good to me. Might be a little juicy off to the northwest...though the orographic spots will get additional snows on Sunday. I agree. I personally don't care, it doesn't affect the outcome and certainly doesn't affect my FX. I just find it funny when watches go up, nothing supports it, they themselves have 0% >6" in those areas and you KNOW they are just going to be converted to an advisory anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Those maps look pretty good to me. Might be a little juicy off to the northwest...though the orographic spots will get additional snows on Sunday. Looks like BOX has me pegged for 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I revise my call to 3-6’’....don’t love the warnings. It’s going to have to go gangbusters to verify widespread 6’’ amounts. I can see it coming down good at like 8-9 o’clock and then it shuts off by 2 am. Going to need to do a lot of work in that timeframe for warning amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You never adjust. Sometimes it’s ok to take amounts up especially as things have ramped up today Thats not true at all. I put out a first call map yesterday and I'm working on a new one as we speak for a final call, that will be adjusted. I haven't needed to for the past few storms and have an excellent track record so far this season. I can show you many storms that ive bumped up or down in past seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: People generally obsess over the warnings vs advisory thing when it doesn't matter that much on a marginal forecast like this one....the difference between 5.5" and 6.5" can be covered by a million different uncertainties: ratios, banding, model qpf error, low level enhancement, etc. The difference between 5.5”-6.5” Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The difference between 5.5”-6.5” Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling. But weenies love warnings, myself included. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love that DB. Still like 4-7" for 495 zone...shouldn't much change at all from first call. Will post Final Call tonight. 7" will be pretty isolated imo. Yeah that’s a decent call I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Wish this was a daylight storm. Seems like it will start around dark and end around dawn. Good night for the spot lights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I think this is over in sne by midnight unless we get the good bye kiss from a coastal blowing up further south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I think this is over in sne by midnight unless we get the good bye kiss from a coastal blowing up further south Yeah I think the meat is from 8-midnight or so and then it’s a really quick shutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I’m still having trouble seeing more than 6 inches and a larger area. That's what she said. 20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: The difference between 5.5”-6.5” Is meaningless to the general public and makes little difference to severity of impact on driving conditions and shoveling. That's not what she said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Wish this was a daylight storm. Seems like it will start around dark and end around dawn. Good night for the spot lights. perfect for me. Sledding tomorrow, be back before it starts. Riding local sunday. Sunny skies after another 6-8".Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 More NWS updates: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 northern ct should be in the warning area . im forecasting 5 - 8 inches for northern ct area . just let every know lawmakers in ct are considering ct own watches and warning system for the state . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, weathafella said: I think this is over in sne by midnight unless we get the good bye kiss from a coastal blowing up further south Definitely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 GFS juiced up a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I like how the expected amounts are the same, or nearly the same, as the upper 10% chance. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, blizzard24 said: northern ct should be in the warning area . im forecasting 5 - 8 inches for northern ct area . just let every know lawmakers in ct are considering ct own watches and warning system for the state . No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 We juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 42 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: More NWS updates: Excellent look for the Whites. Feeling much better about this compared to a few days ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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