40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I feel like the NWS offices have gone a bit wild on this one....but maybe it works out. Ratios could make it possible...if we're like closer to 15 to 1, but I am always hesitant to count on that. Def some guidance showing the crosshair sig. We could also still subtly trend that shortwave sharper instead of getting ground up...that would juice it up a little more too. I agree...they are a little overzealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 4 is totally reasonable...8 is gonna require some ratios or a juicier trend...which could happen BTW. I'm probably nitpicking anyway. For all we know, this will ramp up the next two cycles and then this will all be moot. But the fast moving nature of this and lack of good strong DPVA is still bothering me a little for widespread warning criteria....though the latter has subtly trended better today. Yeah--it's way too progressive to do any more damage than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Geez....NWS going 5-9" here...sell. I thought my 4-7" maybe a hair aggressive... I think that still works for the zones you had it in... maybe the 7" will be rare, but could pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 This qpf would require some fantastic ratios to hit the high end on much of the GYX map (at least the Maine portion). Great look for the MA/NH -VT border folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 That little min near BOS has been showing up a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I wonder if the higher end of the range is moreso to cover for the potential that some localized (though maybe slightly more than just localized) areas see totals towards that end. There are going to be some embedded pockets of some pretty intense lift so there will be places that pull of 7'' to 8'' and that might be a bit more than just isolated...at least enough so to warrant incorporating a range to include those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That little min near BOS has been showing up a lot. The one near S Wey? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That little min near BOS has been showing up a lot. Is that on top of your house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Is that on top of your house? Not far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The one near S Wey? Never ends up where modeled... as I’ve recalled many people saying before when the min is over them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12z GFS for BDL First time seeing some -20 ub/s pop up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 waiting on my winter weather advisory they said would be put up this afternoon for 2-4 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 I just fret about the ratios in this. Yes I know the models are showing pretty cold stuff through the columns, but these seem to come in denser 3-6" still seems good in my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: My experience with GYX is they tend to be really conservative on amounts--at least they used to be. They've been saying 4-8" for me since last night. That’s not my perception ...especially when the ceiling is there for over a foot, seems they oft chuck em close to max amounts on large events (the last 2-3 years) but this regarding their snow maps, point and click maybe more conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I just fret about the ratios in this. Yes I know the models are showing pretty cold stuff through the columns, but these seem to come in denser 3-6" still seems good in my hood 5 to 8 more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That little min near BOS has been showing up a lot. Ripe for a scooter melt when you're choking out 2 mile vis needles and ORH-495 belt up to Ra is ripping 1/4 mile dendrites 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2020 Author Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Whineminster said: 5 to 8 more likely 4-7? lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ripe for a scooter melt when you're choking out 2 mile vis needles and ORH-495 belt up to Ra is ripping 1/4 mile dendrites It’s coming. Time to regress. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It’s coming. Time to regress. Just stare at your avatar and click your heels together and everything will be OK! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Just stare at your avatar and click your heels together and everything will be OK! It’s getting close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Choking up on the weenie a bit more here as we approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like a typical SWFE here. Decent snow from 00z to 06z then a quick dryslot. 4-8'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I’m still having trouble seeing more than 6 inches and a larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I feel like the only area that might would be along the coastal from or up in Maine, but I don’t really see a lot of evidence to give more than 6 inches in a widespread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That little min near BOS has been showing up a lot. It's inaccurate. Believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, DomNH said: Looks like a typical SWFE here. Decent snow from 00z to 06z then a quick dryslot. 4-8'' This year the dry spots have filled in more than expected, even yesterday's storm just kept backfilling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: It's inaccurate. Believe me. I kind of buy it. The set up seem to peter out when they get near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: This qpf would require some fantastic ratios to hit the high end on much of the GYX map (at least the Maine portion). Great look for the MA/NH -VT border folks. GFS has the weenie stripe in S NH too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: GFS has the weenie stripe in S NH too. that may be an area that sees local max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Curious to see if the mesos continue to ramp up till go time or do some backpedaling. 18z will be interesting in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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