dendrite Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I hope alex cora steals your snow 2020 severe season 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: 2020 severe season Touche Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I always wondered if the "2010-2011 is our year" was regarding sports or about the winter season in the Hartford area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Up here where the CF sets up, Someone NW of there will have a few hours of fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Deep Thunder & RPM for anyone who cares. RPM has been consistent for many runs with 2-4 across CT and 1-2 S coast. IBM is 4-6 most of CT, 6-8 spot W and 2-4 SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12Z NAM looking good so far. Looks a hair faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 16 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I always wondered if the "2010-2011 is our year" was regarding sports or about the winter season in the Hartford area. Avatar should give a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Avatar should give a clue Right and i've seen that of course. But it also makes sense weather wise, weather wiz. 2010-2011 is def OUR year for CT snow. We got 3 major snow storms in Jan alone, a pack that would like VT on a good winter and many many more events, including box day. 2010-2011 was OUR year, just like 2014-2015 was E MA year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like there is a warm nose in there @H92 In CT and SE MA, Sleet? Looks like the precip is over for the most part by then though after the initial thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAMs a solid hit for CT. 3-5 for most. Not much change as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Right and i've seen that of course. But it also makes sense weather wise, weather wiz. 2010-2011 is def OUR year for CT snow. We got 3 major snow storms in Jan alone, a pack that would like VT on a good winter and many many more events, including box day. 2010-2011 was OUR year, just like 2014-2015 was E MA year. It was a crazy year in terms of weather for sure...Also had the June 1 severe weather outbreak But Boxing Day...dark memory for me...I was in a horrific spot. I was pissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It was a crazy year in terms of weather for sure...Also had the June 1 severe weather outbreak But Boxing Day...dark memory for me...I was in a horrific spot. I was pissed. That was a nutty year for wild natural phenomena. Great winter, June 1 severe, record July heat, wet August, Irene, Octobomb etc. And elsewhere there was record tornadoes, April 27 outbreak, Joplin disaster, historic Japan tsunami. Just a wild year all around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks like there is a warm nose in there @H92 In CT and SE MA, Sleet? Looks like the precip is over for the most part by then though after the initial thump. I could see you with 8 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Lets get that secondary reflection going even a little faster...that could provide a little enhanced lower level lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: At this time don't see any need to make adjustments from this. Did receive a comment yesterday that I am probably too cute with southern CT there...which I am. Sometimes I like to be cute though. I always just feel though coastal CT somehow always finds a way to flip in these setups. Could have just moved the 3-6'' line farther south and then have a 1-3'' shading As a SW CT resident for life I would say we almost always get more than SE CT. 2-4 for all of SW CT, maybe 3-5 up toward Reading/Ridgefield etc then confine the Coating - 2 to SE CT. Just my opinion but overall a solid map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Models are starting to pick up on that feature of a developing secondary, Euro has had it now the last 3 runs or so, Nam looked to have picked up on it before then too, That's what has been enhancing some of the totals here and to the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Lets get that secondary reflection going even a little faster...that could provide a little enhanced lower level lift. Any room for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Almost tucky looking near BOS and NE MA. Might have to watch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: As a SW CT resident for life I would say we almost always get more than SE CT. 2-4 for all of SW CT, maybe 3-5 up toward Reading/Ridgefield etc then confine the Coating - 2 to SE CT. Just my opinion but overall a solid map. I factor that thinking into a lot of the maps, this one is no exception. SE CT is the worst spot for this storm, NW CT hills, the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Any room for that? Yeah sure...if it develops a bit faster, then we'll see a more enhanced CF form and that will focus some lower lift just on the north/northwest side of it which could give some enhanced totals by an inch or two. Scott mentioned it earlier this morning I think...but somewhere from NE MA down 128/I-95 and then back WSW near the CT shoreline could see a little enhancement if that happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Cobb05 integrates temp moisture and omega through the whole column to determine ratios. Cobb11 takes the same method but adjusted for more realistic ratios per climatology. Theres a paper or a description around somewhere. Way better than just kuchera or 10:1 imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 No snowfall methods that I know take wind speed nto account so if its super windy, ratios should be adjusted down a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 i wonder if those two numbers after Cobb are the year it was updated or adjusted. Because ive seen other numbers as well in different versions of BUFKIT. Edit: They are years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 RGEM tickled slightly colder for the southern peeps dealing with some changeover issues. Secondary is a little SE and more defined. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 More surprises inbound like yesterdays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: RGEM tickled slightly colder for the southern peeps dealing with some changeover issues. Secondary is a little SE and more defined. I'm hoping the warming and changeover is timed perfectly with the precip shutting off around here, and it's looking more and more like that's whats going to happen. Hopefully just some dz at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: As a SW CT resident for life I would say we almost always get more than SE CT. 2-4 for all of SW CT, maybe 3-5 up toward Reading/Ridgefield etc then confine the Coating - 2 to SE CT. Just my opinion but overall a solid map. I am going to make some slight adjustments such as bringing the 3-6'' farther south and just put a 1-3'' along immediate shoreline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Ah, thanks i didnt see that. What a pain in the butt to scroll through all those files though! And the GFS fronto maps dont even work, only NAM is working. ECMWF total QPF for 6Z.Some at the very end is lost to liquid for southern areas. 80-85% is frozen though. At 3Z the 925 line makes it up to 84 didn't realize the EC had gone that high on qpf. that would be 6-10 for many in CNE NNE with good ratios. Seems to be a sign of an incoming slight overperformer as Jeff has suggested. Maybe we are trending back a bit to what was shown 4-5 days ago. wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I got my first real in depth look at this in a day or two, in the last few minutes. I'm not really concerned at all for mix and rain here in Boston. It looks like a scenario where the best lift is gone before the changeover. It's not a beefed up SWFE though. 3-6" is a good range for me to Scott imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, moneypitmike said: 2 hours ago, dendrite said: Looking like another 6-7 incher. That's how we roll up here. That's what she said. Everyone knows 8" is average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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