qg_omega Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, powderfreak said: What a widespread system.... compared to some compact ones, this has a huge swath of snow. What’s up with the hole over btv on most guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, qg_omega said: What’s up with the hole over btv on most guidance BTV mentions it in their discussion Unfortunately, the magnitude and direction of this jet will likely allow for downsloping along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, with locally lower snowfall totals in these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mreaves said: BTV mentions it in their discussion Unfortunately, the magnitude and direction of this jet will likely allow for downsloping along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley, with locally lower snowfall totals in these areas. Should upslope for the southern and central Dacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM held the shortwave together a bit longer. So it's trying to give us a little bit more enhanced thump. I remember you saying that the NAM would do that before backing off again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Somebody went into a lot of detail to come up with this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 335 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-008>011-171700- /O.NEW.KBOX.WS.A.0001.200118T2000Z-200119T1200Z/ Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Western Franklin MA-Eastern Franklin MA- Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA- Eastern Hampden MA- Including the cities of Hartford, Windsor Locks, Union, Vernon, Charlemont, Greenfield, Orange, Chesterfield, Blandford, Amherst, Northampton, and Springfield 335 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...The Connecticut River Valley in Massachusetts and Connecticut, the east slopes of the Berkshires and Tolland County in Connecticut. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult, especially Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow may fall at rates of an inch per hour at times Saturday evening. The bulk of the accumulating snow is Saturday evening. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 BOX gone wild? How is there a WSW? There’s not even enough QPF for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I will say in my quick glance that I thought CT looked best for a decent thump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Quite obvious, They tossed the GFS..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: BOX gone wild? How is there a WSW? There’s not even enough QPF for that. I was like WTH when i woke up. And Northern Litchfield in the 5-10 range, not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not to mention these numbers don't make sense. How can a Watch be issued when you have a 0% chance for most of the Watch area and a high end amount of 4 or 5" in CT. There has to be 50% confidence for a Watch so these maps don't add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Somebody went into a lot of detail to come up with this. Love the look of that. Perhaps I can both get and eek out a warning verification (is that 7 or 8 for GYX??).. BOX has a watch for here which I doubt will verify. GYX has no watch as of now yet may verify. The advisory/warning drumbeat of '19-20 continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 17 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I was like WTH when i woke up. And Northern Litchfield in the 5-10 range, not happening. Blizzard24 at the desk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: Blizzard24 at the desk? He was then USCAPEAFWEATHER broke-in, stabbed him in the eye and took over command. Then Snow88 drove up to Norwood in his cruiser and arrested him, but not before expanding the watches. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Too bad it's such a short-duration event. At least we can all enjoy snow cover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 BOX's most-likely and 90% maps are essentially identical......that doesn't seem to make sense. EDIT: Perhaps they expect the same qpf and the only determining factor is whether they taint. Since they don't expect that, you get the 50% and 90% being the same. That said, I'm still not sure where they're getting the qpf to warrant watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 One thing that is definitely broken, without question, in those maps is the 6 -hr snow totals. If you add them up you get 12" Torrington, 11" Windsor Locks, 10" Hartford, 9" Willimantic, 11" Worcester. Huh? Even down here the numbers are around 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 BOX hittin the tequila hard. Lol. What are they seeing that we have some how glanced over in our micro analysis of this event for the past 7 days? I’d love those totals, just wondering where they are getting these LOL numbers from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: BOX hittin the tequila hard. Lol. What are they seeing that we have some how glanced over in our micro analysis of this event for the past 7 days? I’d love those totals, just wondering where they are getting these LOL numbers from? read the AFD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: read the AFD Seems pretty straight forward. They believe in the thump with little changeover albeit the south shore/I95. Sounds good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Exciting stuff. Get pumped. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I used to use this site for checking F-Gen at certain levels but it seems it last ran on Dec 10th 2019. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Does anyone have anything similar to this? I would love to see some of these graphics for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Seems pretty straight forward. They believe in the thump with little changeover albeit the south shore/I95. Sounds good to me NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 06z Euro pretty typical for a SWFE with totals remaining uniform, SLP looks to get going along the Maine coast the last couple runs so some enhancement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 58 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: read the AFD Yeah, I think their reasoning in the discussion makes sense. The BOX forecast for me in northern Tolland County is 1-3" tomorrow afternoon and 3-5" tomorrow evening. That's 4-8". There's just as likely a chance for 4" as 8" and I think that's a reasonable call at this time considering there may be places over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: 06z Euro pretty typical for a SWFE with totals remaining uniform, SLP looks to get going along the Maine coast the last couple runs so some enhancement there. Subtle signs this is beefing up slightly? Sounds like you get the good ratios the whole storm so you’d be 6-10 while I get good ratios for a bit and end up 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I think somewhere near the cstl front may get a boost of an inch or two. NE MA to nrn CT maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Subtle signs this is beefing up slightly? Sounds like you get the good ratios the whole storm so you’d be 6-10 while I get good ratios for a bit and end up 4-7 Yeah, Been a slight uptick in the modeled QPF, We won't have to worry about any taint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, MetHerb said: Yeah, I think their reasoning in the discussion makes sense. The BOX forecast for me in northern Tolland County is 1-3" tomorrow afternoon and 3-5" tomorrow evening. That's 4-8". There's just as likely a chance for 4" as 8" and I think that's a reasonable call at this time considering there may be places over 6". I'll sell above 6". Maybe a narrow area if there is enhancement with the front, but I don't see their reasoning. Unless they think we are getting 15-20:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: I used to use this site for checking F-Gen at certain levels but it seems it last ran on Dec 10th 2019. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Does anyone have anything similar to this? I would love to see some of these graphics for this storm. Hit the Archive button for individual. You will want to look for ne on the description . Thump getting more pronounced in CT . RGEM now showing 6 to 8 in NE CT Tolland Union area. We slope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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