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January 18-19 SWFE


HoarfrostHubb
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1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

id be totally satisifed with a 4" event here on grass and roads, plows going by, wintry feel, pack stays for awhile, all good stuff.

It’s one of those deals where people meh it beforehand but when everything is covered with the sounds of scraping plows...suddenly they remember the special feeling and beauty of it all. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s one of those deals where people meh it beforehand but when everything is covered with the sounds of scraping plows...suddenly they remember the special feeling and beauty of it all. 

Yeah a 4" event is much more enjoyable in real life than on a colored map.

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24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s one of those deals where people meh it beforehand but when everything is covered with the sounds of scraping plows...suddenly they remember the special feeling and beauty of it all. 

Just as long as I dont wake up Sunday morning and watch it all melt away because we end up hitting the low 40s before we plunge into the arctic for a few days... I remember growing up down in the Mid Atlantic and these SWFE would almost always change over to rain and it was always will there be any left, not how much would accumulate. It also seemed like half the time they would start out as sleet and just change to rain, even though snow was being forecasted. At least up here it seems like it is always some sort of net gain.

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This is my first call.

Despite me joking around about an easy forecast. This is actually one of the easier ones we've had this winter and all of last winter as well. This has prompted many to put out snowfall forecasts 3 or more days in advance.

We are roughly 40hrs away from the start of the event. Models have been consistent run to run and model to model. This looks like a rather light event for most but enough to be plowed (low/mid advisory). After checking on bufkit the majority of the precip for everyone will fall as snow.  The last 10-15% as rain for the southern half of CT. For the northern half the changeover will be inconsequential to snow amounts and in the NW corner they might not change over at all. Therefore, we are looking at 2-5 for most of the state. Snow growth looks decent but nothing to write home about. Somewhere around 10-12:1 average. 

The shoreline , west of Madison will likely be on the lower end of those numbers, in the 2-3" range and amounts increase inland. The higher end of the range will be in the northern part of the state and especially the NW corner where they are likely to remain all snow. It is not out of the question there are some 6" amounts here. The quickest changeover happens in the SE corner where i limited amounts to 1-2. This is typical climo for them and typical for this type of system.

The snowfall range, should generally be read with a SE to NW gradient. If anything changes tomorrow with our 12Z/00Z suites i will update the map. 

P.S. NAM looks solid, ticked a bit cooler mid and low levels and bumped up qpf.

 

01.16.20_snow_forecast_1.jpg

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51 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Just as long as I dont wake up Sunday morning and watch it all melt away because we end up hitting the low 40s before we plunge into the arctic for a few days... I remember growing up down in the Mid Atlantic and these SWFE would almost always change over to rain and it was always will there be any left, not how much would accumulate. It also seemed like half the time they would start out as sleet and just change to rain, even though snow was being forecasted. At least up here it seems like it is always some sort of net gain.

I don’t see us reaching low 40s, maybe 36/37.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

3k nam keeps everyone all snow except se areas at the tail end. Widespread 3-6”.

Yeah... looks good. Looks like any rain off the cape would be at the very end and really means very little. 3k gets rain to about TAN but it’s at the very very end.

Nice to see a somewhat more pronounced thump so far at 00z

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