dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Winter storm watches are up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 7:40 PM, dendrite said: GFS has the weenie stripe in S NH too. Expand And with decent ratios warning will be verified for a goodly few like jeff and maybe me and def you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Starting to show up a little sooner now with the secondary surface reflection on the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAM looks good... pretty much all frozen here... maybe some brief drizzle at the end.... 3-4” looks like a good call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Nice region wide thumper. Just what the doctor ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 3:44 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Looking like another 6-7” er Expand you have certainly changed your tune, wrote this off pretty much a couple days ago, then 2-4 then 3-5 now 6-7. 8-10 tomorrow morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 seems like we are very slowly getting back to a climo 6-10 lollies to 12 cne nne swfe with a secondary. i hope she comes in hot and heavy during dayliight so I can have a jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Not sure I would call any of this a 'thumper'... Especially in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 anything is a thump this winter. flurry? Thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:48 PM, DotRat_Wx said: Not sure I would call any of this a 'thumper'... Especially in SNE. Expand It's improved mildly today, but I'm not sure a single model supports anything over about 7 inches for anyone in this forum....unless there are like 15 to 1 ratios or higher...which there could be, but it is hard to forecast for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's improved mildly today, but I'm not sure a single model supports anything over about 7 inches for anyone in this forum....unless there are like 15 to 1 ratios or higher...which there could be, but it is hard to forecast for that. Expand The watch for southern VT was 7-17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's improved mildly today, but I'm not sure a single model supports anything over about 7 inches for anyone in this forum....unless there are like 15 to 1 ratios or higher...which there could be, but it is hard to forecast for that. Expand I've seen a number of qpf maps for svt snh over to Jeff which are showing .6+ qpf. GYX says good ratios for first part of storm. Wouldn't that translate to 12-15:1 and 6-10 inches? There has to be a reason why both GYX and BOX are being pretty aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's improved mildly today, but I'm not sure a single model supports anything over about 7 inches for anyone in this forum....unless there are like 15 to 1 ratios or higher...which there could be, but it is hard to forecast for that. Expand I agree. I’m a little surprised. This thing will be in and out so fast. It’s going to be hard to achieve those numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Based on BOXs new map, those watches are going over to advisories. I'm utterly shocked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:53 PM, The 4 Seasons said: The watch for southern VT was 7-17" Expand I could see Mitch's area there getting an additional 6" of upslope combined with the IVT hanging back....but for the rest of the non-orographic dwellers, they def won't be getting double digits unless they get super lucky in some fluff band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:54 PM, The 4 Seasons said: Based on BOXs new map, those watches are going over to advisories. I'm utterly shocked! Expand Makes sense.... there is very little confidence anyone will see warning amounts... let alone a large enough majority to justify a warning. I promise you though... a few people will get 6 or 7” and you’ll here “blehhhhhhhhh, should have been a warning, we got 7 inches!!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:54 PM, mahk_webstah said: I've seen a number of qpf maps for svt snh over to Jeff which are showing .6+ qpf. GYX says good ratios for first part of storm. Wouldn't that translate to 12-15:1 and 6-10 inches? There has to be a reason why both GYX and BOX are being pretty aggressive. Expand 4-7” and call it a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I had 5-8" for tomorrow and we will end up in there somewhere unless that secondary takes off sooner here anyways, Could see that happening on the 18z Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 8:54 PM, mahk_webstah said: I've seen a number of qpf maps for svt snh over to Jeff which are showing .6+ qpf. GYX says good ratios for first part of storm. Wouldn't that translate to 12-15:1 and 6-10 inches? There has to be a reason why both GYX and BOX are being pretty aggressive. Expand It's possible...but this is like a 6 hour storm for the meaningful precip. I'm a little skeptical of QPF that high...though the Euro has been showing it. Euro did back off some on the 12z run, so we'll see if that continues tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3-5” with an isolated 6” would be my forecast for Mass Conn and RI... everyone away from the canal in that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:00 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: 3-5” with an isolated 6” would be my forecast for Mass Conn and RI... everyone away from the canal in that range Expand 2-4 for me and you. Thinking 2-3 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Advisories for the coast. Warnings inland with the 4pm package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I just want that little cold pocket sloshing East Sunday morning with planes sliding off the runways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:02 PM, CoastalWx said: 2-4 for me and you. Thinking 2-3 here. Expand Yeah... if I had to pick a number for TAN I’d probably go 4”.... at least it’ll be wintry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAM is like a 6 hour thump after 00z then a real quick dry slot. Super fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:02 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Advisories for the coast. Warnings inland with the 4pm package. Expand I’d it’s the snow map I saw that doesn’t make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Wonder if Jimmy finally gets his OES on Sunday night behind the system with the IVT trying to turn the winds more N....might be more outer cape though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/17/2020 at 9:03 PM, DomNH said: NAM is like a 6 hour thump after 00z then a real quick dry slot. Super fast mover. Expand Yeah I think a few people will post how it shut off quicker than they thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Warnings up for miazz and hubbalubbahdubbagrubbah. 4 to 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I know Will said this too, but that area under WSW May get a boost if the secondary developed quicker. Still, I’m not sure I’d have the confidence for WSW numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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