Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 If you toggle the panels at hr 84 between 06z and 12z GFS it did tick colder ever so slightly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Unless the signal for strengthening dynamics goes away I would expect models to continue with a colder look. I think there is alot favoring dynamic cooling here and dynamic layer lifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 A secondary surface reflection off the delmarva would help everyone's cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I'm not even overly sold about secondary development...or at least anything of significance...maybe some weak circulation but the main low is so strong and not sure the structure of the energy or dynamics support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro looks cooler for this weekend, so trending the right way also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro tickling colder. That's not a terrible look. Nothing amazing but probably 3-6 for everyone off the water in SNE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro tickling colder. That's not a terrible look. Nothing amazing but probably 3-6 for everyone off the water in SNE. yeah, maybe a bit better NW section? MA, NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This one is starting to look similar to tomorrows, Losing the big front end thump with late development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro tickling colder. That's not a terrible look. Nothing amazing but probably 3-6 for everyone off the water in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Here's GFS at BDL. That's some nice thumping. Probably a good 1.5''/hr type stuff...if ratios verify maybe spitting near 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yeah pretty decent. Keep in mind we have to shave a couple inches off over the interior there because that snow map is including tonight/tomorrow morning. I'd like to see a little bit better DPVA slamming us from the southwest to go more than 3-5" but beggars can't be choosers...there's still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Remember, while grabbing for every inch to be had, January 2015. Then came the deluge and anything less than a six inch fall was treated like flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Okay Okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 OKX is extremely conservative, which i disagree with at this point. Quick burst of snow, then over to rain for everyone. Raised temps above guidance. They also feel everyone in their CWA, including CT will be below adv criteria with the only chance being Orange county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Tickle, tickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Holy shit Nick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: OKX is extremely conservative, which i disagree with at this point. Quick burst of snow, then over to rain for everyone. Raised temps above guidance. They also feel everyone in their CWA, including CT will be below adv criteria with the only chance being Orange county. I agree it looks a bit pessimistic. Though I can see them staying conservative given its 84 hours out and then they can always start ramping it up tomorrow and Friday if that colder thump is looking likely. I know from my experience forecasting to clients that backpeddling is a little harder than ramping up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 17 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Tickle, tickle. I wonder if from you to me (near Dendrite) to Jeff might get some decent ratios in both of these events and a shot at double digits by Sunday night? It is cold at upper levels at least on the weekend which could give good ratios (although I know the temp in the DGZ is critical). I don't know about ratios tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I agree it looks a bit pessimistic. Though I can see them staying conservative given its 84 hours out and then they can always start ramping it up tomorrow and Friday if that colder thump is looking likely. I know from my experience forecasting to clients that backpeddling is a little harder than ramping up. That's generally their modus operandi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 EPS ticked a bit colder/snowier, here are the probs for 1/3/6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12Z EPS. 24hr snow totals. Right now based on everything i think a widespread 2-4 looks likely away from the immediate coast for most of SNE. This lines up pretty well with what i would go with atm. Probably go 4-6 N & W of I90. 2-4 everywhere else S. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 Anyone have groovy 3" and/or 6" probability maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone have groovy 3" and/or 6" probability maps? i just posted them.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 52 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I wonder if from you to me (near Dendrite) to Jeff might get some decent ratios in both of these events and a shot at double digits by Sunday night? It is cold at upper levels at least on the weekend which could give good ratios (although I know the temp in the DGZ is critical). I don't know about ratios tonight. Getting to double digits with both storms? I think that was a given here anyways right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: EPS ticked a bit colder/snowier, here are the probs for 1/3/6" Cant get a higher prob number for 6" here then that................... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Oh Nammy how we love the Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Pop goes the weasel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 NAM has a weak secondary south of ack. Not enough to flip the flow NE due to the parent low, but that would limit warming just inland. Pretty much all snow even near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 hours ago, dryslot said: A secondary surface reflection off the delmarva would help everyone's cause. 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pop goes the weasel. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 obsolete NAM.. remember folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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