CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: In the Winter of 2019/20 2-3" is "cashing in" So far so blow except for 2 weeks. We'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: So far so blow except for 2 weeks. We'll see how it goes. Does that 2-3" call seem to apply to N of the Pike as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Does that 2-3" call seem to apply to N of the Pike as well? You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does. Yeah, and ratios won't help. The tail end especially. Warm tongues and all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah, and ratios won't help. The tail end especially. Warm tongues and all Let's hope theres something better next week for the area and beyond..? This one Saturday was never really supposed to be all that great being the pattern is just starting to change. Hopefully we get some more chances when the pattern is better established later next week? Who knows though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah, and ratios won't help. The tail end especially. Warm tongues and all Actually ratios may be good near you. It's cold aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You guys would certainly get doubt at least. Meaning your spot. I mean what are we talking under .75" total I suppose? Seems like this is a lot of 4-7" stuff where it's all snow in SNE? 7 being max and more isolated I think. Still early, we'll see what 12z does. My initial thoughts at least for northern CT are within the 4-7''/5-8'' range. Normally wouldn't do that for a SWFE but this one is a bit different. Seems like these have a tendency to overperform some when we have these pretty cold air masses in place out ahead of them. One reason for that being is I think snow ratios actually tend to be a bit higher than what is assumed or expected. To me the two keys are; 1) How "intense" the precipitation shield is as it's arriving...this I don't think should be a problem given how everything is favorable for large-scale lift. 2) Whether the WAA is intensifying...which seems to be the case on the models. That will only enhance precipitation and precipitation rates. I'm thinking snow rations 15:1 or so...maybe slightly higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Ratios will be higher, but watch the slot. That will race in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Yeah, and ratios won't help. The tail end especially. Warm tongues and all Wiz is liking the ratios at the onset.. 15:1-18:1, stack it up before the mid levels torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 NAM is cold. That would be a decent thump for many. Look at KACK for hr 84 on the soundings. That's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Wiz is liking the ratios at the onset.. 15:1-18:1, stack it up before the mid levels torch Bufkit was spitting out some pretty solid ratios to begin...I think sometimes bufkit can be a little off with them but it makes sense that ratios will be higher than typical. If we are able to get some great lift into the DGZ while ratios are maximized that's when a few may really be able to cash in. There is still plenty of room to go go in either direction here...either quickly transitioning or colder air locked in a bit more depending on secondary development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Wiz not sure if ratios are that high overall. Maybe briefly in those initial fronto bursts? That will heavily depend on where the lift is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM is cold. That would be a decent thump for many. Look at KACK for hr 84 on the soundings. That's cold. I'm trying to remember this but when it comes to advecting temperatures faster (speaking aloft here so in this case 850)...isn't a major factor how winds are crossing the isoheights? If winds are more perpendicular to isoheights that would actually slow down the progression of WAA...no matter how strong the winds are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Wiz not sure if ratios are that high overall. Maybe briefly in those initial fronto bursts? That will heavily depend on where the lift is. Certainly agree...will really depend on where the lift is. I'm trying to think back to some of the previous examples in which ratios ended up slightly higher in these set ups...then sort of go back and do a quick re-analysis. But yeah...it's all going to be tied into lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm trying to remember this but when it comes to advecting temperatures faster (speaking aloft here so in this case 850)...isn't a major factor how winds are crossing the isoheights? If winds are more perpendicular to isoheights that would actually slow down the progression of WAA...no matter how strong the winds are? Yeah cross heights for sure. But you can easily look at temp plots and advection plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Hump dat NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Dryslot finger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah cross heights for sure. But you can easily look at temp plots and advection plots. Kinda doing so I think you can see how the strongest of the WAA sort of struggles to get in here...almost kinda weakens but it remains very strong to our SW which is pretty perfect actually. Also, I wonder if dynamic cooling may be a factor here...those dynamics in the llvls really crank up. 850's actually cool moving towards Saturday evening and the progression of the 0C line sorta of halts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM is cold. That would be a decent thump for many. Look at KACK for hr 84 on the soundings. That's cold. Would be nice to get a good thump to drizzle instead of an extended period of rain like some of the models have been showing...So bring that dryslot through here as quick as possible, the Nam was close to all frozen at the end of the run here. Hopefully that trend continues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 51 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: My initial thoughts at least for northern CT are within the 4-7''/5-8'' range. Normally wouldn't do that for a SWFE but this one is a bit different. Seems like these have a tendency to overperform some when we have these pretty cold air masses in place out ahead of them. One reason for that being is I think snow ratios actually tend to be a bit higher than what is assumed or expected. To me the two keys are; 1) How "intense" the precipitation shield is as it's arriving...this I don't think should be a problem given how everything is favorable for large-scale lift. 2) Whether the WAA is intensifying...which seems to be the case on the models. That will only enhance precipitation and precipitation rates. I'm thinking snow rations 15:1 or so...maybe slightly higher? That’s too high for CT. We rarely see 5+ widespread in SWFE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s too high for CT. We rarely see 5+ widespread in SWFE That is the key word here! This also isn't a typical SWFE. I think at this stage the probability for such a scenario occurring is high enough to not discount it and even high enough to lean towards that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s too high for CT. We rarely see 5+ widespread in SWFE Has your account been hacked again? But yeah... 5-6" seems the ceiling for CT in many of these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 December 13 2007 is my BM for SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS looks virtually identical to 06z run thru 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Coos canyon to Bosebuck? After this next one, Should be great up there. I think we'll head towards Newry and Evans Notch. Some good riding over there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 We toss the WF into NH idea on GFS. Wonder if it's one of these deals where that semi cstl front/inv trough looks hangs around in NE MA. Hard for me to see any warm air plowing into that airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Lots of talk in here about warm tongues, slots, and fingers in here..... Making me uncomfortable. Run of the mill swfe, but if it sticks around until the next one it's all worth it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 We seem to be sliding back to a somewhat better thump on recent guidance and that so far continues at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: We seem to be sliding back to a somewhat better thump on recent guidance and that so far continues at 12z. canadian looked better? seems cooler.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: canadian looked better? seems cooler.. really not much different then 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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