HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Details still remain to be sorted out. The typical SWFE folks will do best. Ceiling is a bit low. Rain on the backside unless you are in NNE. 2-4”, 3-6” seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Details still remain to be sorted out. The typical SWFE folks will do best. Ceiling is a bit low. Rain on the backside unless you are in NNE. 2-4”, 3-6” seems reasonable I'm still planning to be at Pit2 for this, but even there GYX is calling for taint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I'm still planning to be at Pit2 for this, but even there GYX is calling for taint.Ch 6 not thinking more than 3-6". Thought it was going to be a stronger sys then tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: 13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'm still planning to be at Pit2 for this, but even there GYX is calling for taint. Ch 6 not thinking more than 3-6". Thought it was going to be a stronger sys then tomorrow I haven't been up there in a couple months. My wife was there over the weekend and said it was still snow-covered. So at least there's that going ito perhaps a couple mundane events. That would at least provide some cover to aid with any follow-up cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This looks like an overall meh thump.... 1-3” for most in SNE... including ORH area... maybe 3-5” up towards the MA/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This looks like an overall meh thump.... 1-3” for most in SNE... including ORH area... maybe 3-5” up towards the MA/NH border All pull, no press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: This looks like an overall meh thump.... 1-3” for most in SNE... including ORH area... maybe 3-5” up towards the MA/NH border We did have over 40 pages for a “threat” that gave 1 person on the Cape about that much. At least some people could see a plow for this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We did have over 40 pages for a “threat” that gave 1 person on the Cape about that much. At least some people could see a plow for this. Sure.... some models are really meager in the snow department though... still a ways to go... but that’s not the best sign in my eyes. Im also not jumping for joy over 1-3” of slop in the heart of winter. In November, cool. In January... nah. Hopefully the ski resorts cash for a busy holiday weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Model consensus is prettt much 2-6" outside of 128/NW of 95 including CT as well. We'll see if we can start trending the redevelopment a little bit and that could enhance the amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 My eyes could be deceiving me, but it appeared the 06z CMC was going pretty far south with the redevelopment, just south of Boston? Was the furthest south with redevelopment IMO out of the morning suite. See if that trends at 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: My eyes could be deceiving me, but it appeared the 06z CMC was going pretty far south with the redevelopment, just south of Boston? Was the furthest south with redevelopment IMO out of the morning suite. See if that trends at 12z... Ugh, never mind was toggling 12z yesterday compared to 0z this morning... it was a step in the right direction though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said: Ugh, never mind was toggling 12z yesterday compared to 0z this morning... it was a step in the right direction though 00z GGEM definitely started showing redevelopment to our south. First model that has showed this in days. My gut says we'll see more hints of this as we get closer just because of the natural baroclinic zone down there. It's gonna be very cold initially so there's going to want to be a sfc reflection to the southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z GGEM definitely started showing redevelopment to our south. First model that has showed this in days. My gut says we'll see more hints of this as we get closer just because of the natural baroclinic zone down there. It's gonna be very cold initially so there's going to want to be a sfc reflection to the southeast. So if we get redevelopment to the south, what tangible affect does that have on snow totals? Does it help lock in the cold, therefore prolonging the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Overnight runs looked more promising with some semblance of redevelopment. That's what you want to see continue coming in better. You also want to see the primary weakening over the midwest. Someone could score 4-6" away from the coast up in yonder hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I'm still planning to be at Pit2 for this, but even there GYX is calling for taint. Ch 6 not thinking more than 3-6". Thought it was going to be a stronger sys then tomorrow They had it raining to Livermore, Not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: So if we get redevelopment to the south, what tangible affect does that have on snow totals? Does it help lock in the cold, therefore prolonging the snow? It doesn't just prolong the cold a little bit...I'd think the more important aspect is that it will enhance the thump. You'll start getting a more defined warm front building from the sfc upward. Usually just north of it you can get some pretty intense rates for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I think by the time the warmer air arrives the majority of the precipitation is done. If there is anything that we've learned from these types of set-ups is we really don't zero-in on the most likely outcome until we're within 24-36 hours. While obviously there are some flags at hand one thing I really love to see is the expansion and strengthening of the WAA as the nose of the WAA arrives...dynamics look to favor large-scale lift with pretty strong convergence in the llvls. Snow levels should be pretty dang good too...at least to begin. Wouldn't be surprised to see 15-18:1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 19 minutes ago, dryslot said: They had it raining to Livermore, Not happening. Hopefully not as far as Bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 49 minutes ago, dryslot said: 6-10" what's the timing? start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: what's the timing? start? 7-10 pm Saturday night give or take, These usually come in sooner then modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: 7-10 pm Saturday night give or take, These usually come in sooner then modeled. perfect. heading to andover sat morning. coming back late afternoon. Gonna be cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: perfect. heading to andover sat morning. coming back late afternoon. Gonna be cold! Yes it is, Do you park on Rte 5 at the the park and ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: 7-10 pm Saturday night give or take, These usually come in sooner then modeled. As does the mid-level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: As does the mid-level warming. For some yeah, It goes hand and hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yes it is, Do you park on Rte 5 at the the park and ride? my buddy has a camp on s. arm rd, about a mile down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Sure.... some models are really meager in the snow department though... still a ways to go... but that’s not the best sign in my eyes. Im also not jumping for joy over 1-3” of slop in the heart of winter. In November, cool. In January... nah. Hopefully the ski resorts cash for a busy holiday weekend It's why I wasn't a fan of this setup a few days ago. Just not for our part of the world anyways. That said, it's a fairly cold system. Srly winds and barely getting the 540 line to KTAN means above 850 it's chilly. So while below 850 will warm, we have a little wiggle room with the airmass...both antecedent and aloft. Normally that's an inch of crud followed by rain, but perhaps 2-3 if it works out. Dryslot races in, so nobody in SNE is cashing in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Lava Rock said: my buddy has a camp on s. arm rd, about a mile down Coos canyon to Bosebuck? After this next one, Should be great up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The seals on Coast Guard beach my get an inch or two from this at the end, says a couple of the mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's why I wasn't a fan of this setup a few days ago. Just not for our part of the world anyways. That said, it's a fairly cold system. Srly winds and barely getting the 540 line to KTAN means above 850 it's chilly. So while below 850 will warm, we have a little wiggle room with the airmass...both antecedent and aloft. Normally that's an inch of crud followed by rain, but perhaps 2-3 if it works out. Dryslot races in, so nobody in SNE is cashing in on this one. In the Winter of 2019/20 2-3" is "cashing in" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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