ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 WXSIM with 12z data again ticked a bit colder and a little more snow/sleet accumulation with a bit earlier start time - total snow sleet 3.5" to 4.5" Here is the rundown: 10am snow arrives temp (22.2) 1pm Moderate IP (23.6) 4pm Heavy IP (23.4) 7pm Heavy Snow (23.6) Snow ends around 8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: WXSIM with 12z data again ticked a bit colder and a little more snow/sleet accumulation with a bit earlier start time - total snow sleet 3.5" to 4.5" Here is the rundown: 10am snow arrives temp (22.2) 1pm Moderate IP (23.6) 4pm Heavy IP (23.4) 7pm Heavy Snow (23.6) Snow ends around 8pm So it's looking like we'll stay well below freezing for this entire event? Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 And another tick better from the ECM Ever since my execution on the MA side things have incrementally improved, avenge my sacrifice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Euro was much colder., pretty sure 95 stays frozen the whole storm. If it changes to rain, it's at most light or drizzle. Great trends! Let's keep em going now.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Based on experience January is never a shutout. This one almost has to over perform, or end looking like the latest ECM map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 18z GFS is 6" all snow up here ending as rain showers. Shows no sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS is 6" all snow up here ending as rain showers. Shows no sleet. I suspect that will not be happening..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just looked closer at the 18z GFS....that may be the strangest snow map I have ever seen for a non-Miller B event - verification chances.....I would not bet a lot on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 WXSIM with 18z GFS/NAM backing off on the snow but hitting sleet harder - thus reducing snow/sleet totals by about an inch - total now 2" to 3" at most - however as I mentioned early this AM I am not surprised NWS brought the WWA down into Western Chester County with their 4pm update - the fascinating (to me) big battle tomorrow will be on temps - the NWS P&C has me at 37 while WXSIM only 26.....very rare to see that large spread between WXSIM and NWS...who will win the great battle of NW Chesco weather??? stay tuned!! Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 26. Wind south near calm in the morning, becoming 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. A mix of sleet, snow, and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of freezing rain and sleet after midnight. Low 24, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 21. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I love watching systems like this evolve. Not expecting much, but that is what makes it fun to watch hour by hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Just looked closer at the 18z GFS....that may be the strangest snow map I have ever seen for a non-Miller B event - verification chances.....I would not bet a lot on that ^That is an odd (not correct) map but benefits me so I'll agree with it. What's up with the slice of pizza in upper Bucks county? Seriously it's not going to work out this way..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 12k NAM increased qpf now in line with the GFSand others. 3k NAM is all frozen here save for the tail end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 ^Damn, that is quite nice if it holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 0Z GFS is all snow for SEPA now total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 20/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 22/6 Reading Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Will be interesting to see how that initial band plays out. It seems to be backbuilding/filling in north of the pa border. If we can limit the lull that would really help out totals. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I’ll take an hour of snow and like it! Could always move to Newfoundland. LOL 21 degrees New Garden Twp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwhiteout Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 26 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Will be interesting to see how that initial band plays out. It seems to be backbuilding/filling in north of the pa border. If we can limit the lull that would really help out totals. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk For Ralph (Steve) whats up with this lull. Not good in my mind! whats going to happen in your mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 3 minutes ago, Lady Di said: I’ll take an hour of snow and like it! Could always move to Newfoundland. LOL 21 degrees New Garden Twp. 25.5°F and 43% RH about 15 miles north of Avondale, give or take. I'm also at about 450' ASL. When I moved back here in '09 with my SoCal-raised wife, I told her that this is the type of winter we usually had growing up, and then we got hit with the epic '09 and '10 winters, so she didn't believe me. But now that we've had more than a few years of mediocre winters in a row, she gets it. She got hooked on lots of snow during those years and now we ultimately want to move somewhere more north. Somewhere with a real, consistent winter. NFL sounds nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I guess we're putting obs here? 24/5. Probably going to lose some snow while the column moistens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said: For Ralph (Steve) whats up with this lull. Not good in my mind! whats going to happen in your mind? Honestly I've been thinking a lot, if not all, of that first line could be virga, at least down this way where the line gets thinner. The air is pretty dry. Hoping it's not of course! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 22F/3DP here. There is that initial band, but it looks like there are lighter returns behind it. Snow or virga? Have to check obs in W Pa. Kamu, let's get that snow pile started today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 53 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said: For Ralph (Steve) whats up with this lull. Not good in my mind! whats going to happen in your mind? Lull was forecast. It is the gap between the WAA band and the front. Should be intermittent stuff then resume this afternoon. 2-5" up your way with possible mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Latest WXSIM with 6z - looks like WXSIM is winning for now the great battle vs NWS temp wise....NWS has now moved my P&C to 32 degree high - WXSIM still colder. Today: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 27. Wind south near calm in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Tonight: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a slight chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 24. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 24 minutes ago, JTA66 said: 22F/3DP here. There is that initial band, but it looks like there are lighter returns behind it. Snow or virga? Have to check obs in W Pa. Kamu, let's get that snow pile started today! Lol, I would love too. It's cold enough for driveway stickage, but confidence isn't high down here. Snow shovels are still in the barn so as not to jinx it. Like it makes a difference, lol. Also had a kettle fire last night - pulled out all the stops! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 12 hours ago, Birds~69 said: ^That is an odd (not correct) map but benefits me so I'll agree with it. What's up with the slice of pizza in upper Bucks county? Seriously it's not going to work out this way..... It looks almost like it's trying to predict a low running up east central PA with a warm front that gets "hung up" near SE PA/N. DE. I don't recall seeing hung-up fronts that far east - usually they do that further south and west over the apps and eventually "snap up" and move northeast relatively quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 21 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest WXSIM with 6z - looks like WXSIM is winning for now the great battle vs NWS temp wise....NWS has now moved my P&C to 32 degree high - WXSIM still colder. Today: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 27. Wind south near calm in the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Tonight: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening, then a slight chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 24. Wind south-southwest around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 3 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Wasn't WXSIM calling for upwards of 12" several days ago? What is it's track record regarding forecasts? Seems foolhardy to me to give it any credence if it's that far off only a few days in advance. Not trolling, asking honestly. Obviously we all want more snow and we all want the medium- to long-range forecasts to be more accurate, but that seems kind of ridiculous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Currently 23 here and overcast with dp of 8. This incoming band looks interesting. Will have to see if it erodes as it moves east due to this dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Currently 23 here and overcast with dp of 8. This incoming band looks interesting. Will have to see if it erodes as it moves east due to this dry air. COD radar actually has some yellow speckles in the middle of that line, but also shows it a lot thinner. Time to go sit outside and watch for flakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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