The Iceman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3k NAM is basically a non event for 95 with only a tenth of precip falling(mostly frozen though ) . Even up in the LV, totals would be lucky to eclipse 2 inches. Basically a minor nuisance. This storm really is a microcosm of this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 ICON has us in the low to mid 20s here Saturday afternoon with a mix of sleet and fzra. Been getting progressively colder at the surface each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 ^ It seems the cold is not the problem as much any longer but the lack of precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 GFS colder. The gfs doesnt look dry fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: 3k NAM is basically a non event for 95 with only a tenth of precip falling(mostly frozen though ) . Even up in the LV, totals would be lucky to eclipse 2 inches. Basically a minor nuisance. This storm really is a microcosm of this winter... Keep in mind NAM at this range not real useful with qpf....it will NAM someone by Saturday 0z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seems reasonable. As for the follow up system(s) the favorable looks are headed the wrong way again and getting delayed or the longwaves are just not lining up to produce anything meaningful. I'm afraid the GL cutters and systems just off the coast during cold air retreat are going to continue. It is probably going to take a fluke late in the season to give us something meaningful. Still think we have one large system before its all over. Whether big enough to get us to avg per my outlook tbd. I will be the first to claim I failed at season end....nothing to hide or be ashamed of. Just not looking great right now. One thing we’ll have is the cold being entrenched for a few days. GFS sometimes looks good - I know the GFS loves long range snows - but some recent runs have even had a Miller B working out. Guess cautiously optimistic is the way to go? Glad you agree we can at least get 1-3” out of this next storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 WXSIM with 12z NAM/GFS data trended a bit snowier but still mainly sleet with temps never rising above freezing in NW Chester County PA during the storm. Timing - Snow arrives by 1230pm briefly heavy before changing to IP by 2pm then IP heavy at times before mixing back with snow by 6pm and ending by 730pm - total snow/sleet accumulation 3" to 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Mt Holly's early call. Pretty much agree with it except I'd bring the 1 inch line into 95. But with the way things have been trending, their map is probably the right call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 NAM is a major outlier. No model is even close to being that dry. I’m thinking 3-5” for the ABE area, pretty much in line with the NWS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 On 1/15/2020 at 1:12 PM, Voyager said: 8 hours ago, LVblizzard said: NAM is a major outlier. No model is even close to being that dry. I’m thinking 3-5” for the ABE area, pretty much in line with the NWS. Full NAM CAVE to gfs... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 WXSIM with 0z NAM and 18z GFS for NW Chesco - 3" to 5" of snow/sleet Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of snow and sleet likely in the afternoon. High 29. Wind south around 2 mph in the morning, becoming 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation around 2 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight, with scattered light frost possible. Snow likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of sleet, freezing rain, snow, and rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 20. Wind south-southwest around 10 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Cecily Tynan going with a change to rain all the way into the LV, no sleet just solid r/s line. "Very mild air will work it's way in Saturday afternoon". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 36 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Full NAM CAVE to gfs... lol GFS caved to the NAM irt qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Cecily Tynan going with a change to rain all the way into the LV, no sleet just solid r/s line. "Very mild air will work it's way in Saturday afternoon". I told my wife to never look at TV weather...we can see the models just as well....funny thing is that forecast she shows tonight will be the same one they go with all morning tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Mesos / wrfs are coming in much colder 850s and surface. Are all snow for PA except right along I95. Big shifts on the mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 10 hours ago, The Iceman said: Mt Holly's early call. Pretty much agree with it except I'd bring the 1 inch line into 95. But with the way things have been trending, their map is probably the right call. Expected snowfall less than < 1”. Story of our lives for the last tao Years lol. So pathetic. Haven’t even hit an inch yet this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Brine down here in North Wales. I'm going with 1-3" which would be the largest this season. Kinda pathetic but it will be nice to see snow falling and hopefully sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS data has trended colder for NW Chester County I'm a bit surprised my zone forecast does not include a WWA. It could be the NWS cannot split the zone north vs. south. My point and click has a high of 37 for me tomorrow in East Nantmeal... I will take the way under - I will be surprised if we get near or above freezing. Total snow and sleet accumulation around 2" to 3". Here is the rundown of precipitation types temperatures and timing 12 noon Light snow (temp) (25.3) 1pm Moderate sleet (24.7) 4pm Heavy sleet (23.6) 7pm Heavy snow (23.6) 8pm snow ending (23.9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 My current thoughts (crude as it may be) on the upcoming event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I'd be happy with 2"-3". 12z NAM continues to look sleety here after an initial burst of snow. Actually, I'm one of those weirdos that likes a good sleet storm -- put down a layer of ice, top it off with drizzle, then freeze it solid! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest WXSIM with 6z NAM/GFS data has trended colder for NW Chester County I'm a bit surprised my zone forecast does not include a WWA. It could be the NWS cannot split the zone north vs. south. My point and click has a high of 37 for me tomorrow in East Nantmeal... I will take the way under - I will be surprised if we get near or above freezing. Total snow and sleet accumulation around 2" to 3". Here is the rundown of precipitation types temperatures and timing 12 noon Light snow (temp) (25.3) 1pm Moderate sleet (24.7) 4pm Heavy sleet (23.6) 7pm Heavy snow (23.6) 8pm snow ending (23.9) It is interesting to see some of the hires stuff flip dome areas back to snow as the flows backs and winds veer NE later in the day. RGEM has a nice burst of heavy snow in the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'd be happy with 2"-3". 12z NAM continues to look sleety here after an initial burst of snow. Actually, I'm one of those weirdos that likes a good sleet storm -- put down a layer of ice, top it off with drizzle, then freeze it solid! I'm with you. If we arent going to have a clean snow then pile that sleet up! The Valentines sleetfest ('07?) was epic. Had like 3" of sleet where I resided at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'm with you. If we arent going to have a clean snow then pile that sleet up! The Valentines sleetfest ('07?) was epic. Had like 3" of sleet where I resided at that time. I remember that and I think it was '07. I was driving to Limerick on Rt 422 early in the morning and it wasn't plowed. Driving on 3-4" of sleet is way different than same amount of snow. I'll probably never experience that again in my life. Anyhow, let's grab a couple inches of whatever tomorrow and make it last for several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 54 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I'd be happy with 2"-3". 12z NAM continues to look sleety here after an initial burst of snow. Actually, I'm one of those weirdos that likes a good sleet storm -- put down a layer of ice, top it off with drizzle, then freeze it solid! Keep in mind sleet counts as snow - it just accumulates relatively slow with a rule of thumb rate of w.e. to sleet of only 5:1 vs snow which is 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I remember that and I think it was '07. I was driving to Limerick on Rt 422 early in the morning and it wasn't plowed. Driving on 3-4" of sleet is way different than same amount of snow. I'll probably never experience that again in my life. Anyhow, let's grab a couple inches of whatever tomorrow and make it last for several days. 12z suite is coming in colder 850s and keeping them colder longer. Also seeing colder 2m temps. This is on the RGEM ICON, and GFS. NAM is warmer fwiw. Awaiting the WRFs mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 HRDPS is much colder and almost entirely frozen thru entire event save for the extreme SE counties (Delco, Philly, S chesco, extreme lower Bucks). Good trends so far 12z if you like frozen. NAM thus far is by itself. Not saying it is wrong as these events usually warm faster than modeled but will be interesting to see which guidance has the better idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 12z suite is coming in colder 850s and keeping them colder longer. Also seeing colder 2m temps. This is on the RGEM ICON, and GFS. NAM is warmer fwiw. Awaiting the WRFs mesos. Meso's are all over the place with QPF and precip type. Theme of colder for longer though is there. All of them are pretty unanimous that 95 stays below freezing until the last hour of precip. The NSSL is the best for everyone with mostly snow and only really changes to sleet for a brief period in the southern/95 areas before a change to light rain at the very end. The WRF -NMMB is a sleet bomb even for those up in the lehigh valley. It's the coldest of all the meso's though, 95 doesn't get above freezing until precip is gone, but it also has only half of the QPF of the NSSL. The WRF ARW is closer to the NSSL but has more sleet and a little bit less QPF. Overall though, pretty positive runs. Trending towards a WWA possibly for 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11am newscast: Glenn going with 1" or less for parts S/E of Philly...1" for Philly...1-3" for local Burbs and 3-4" for the Reading Allentown areas. I think it's a good call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, The Iceman said: Meso's are all over the place with QPF and precip type. Theme of colder for longer though is there. All of them are pretty unanimous that 95 stays below freezing until the last hour of precip. The NSSL is the best for everyone with mostly snow and only really changes to sleet for a brief period in the southern/95 areas before a change to light rain at the very end. The WRF -NMMB is a sleet bomb even for those up in the lehigh valley. It's the coldest of all the meso's though, 95 doesn't get above freezing until precip is gone, but it also has only half of the QPF of the NSSL. The WRF ARW is closer to the NSSL but has more sleet and a little bit less QPF. Overall though, pretty positive runs. Trending towards a WWA possibly for 95. WRFs are all coming in colder at the surface and longer 850s sub 32f fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, Birds~69 said: 11am newscast: Glenn going with 1" or less for parts S/E of Philly...1" for Philly...1-3" for local Burbs and 3-4" for the Reading Allentown areas. I think it's a good call... Agreed. Doubt we see much non-frozen up here. Thinking about an inch or so snow then lots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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