ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Latest Wxsim for Chester County PA a sleet fest with up to 4" of snow/sleet total.... Saturday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 30. Wind chill ranging from 13 to 20. Wind south-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming partly to mostly cloudy after midnight. A mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Breezy. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 18 to 29. Wind south around 12 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euron adds 1-2” for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 WXSIM continues the trend toward a sleet fest for NW Chesco....I suspect areas northeast bound toward ABE will have a plowable snow/sleet amount greater than 3" before znizzle or drizzle Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill around 18. Wind south-southeast around 5 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. A mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet likely in the evening, then a slight chance of rain after midnight. Breezy. Low 31, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 30. Wind south around 13 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Little or no ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 On 1/13/2020 at 1:05 PM, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest Wxsim for next weekend with 12z NAM/GFS combo - of course we don't shovel model snow!! Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 31. Wind chill ranging from 11 to 18. Wind east-southeast around 7 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 12 to 16 inches. Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy after midnight. Patchy light fog in the evening. A chance of a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 19 to 29. Wind south around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation. Remember the 12-16" wxsim forecast? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 NAM doing its thing. Mesos getting in range. Maybe better pickup of cad? Almost entirely a frozen event here on NAM with lots of pingers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM doing its thing. Mesos getting in range. Maybe better pickup of cad? Almost entirely a frozen event here on NAM with lots of pingers: Yeah this is going to be an ugly storm, worst part is this wont even get bear creek reopened as progged. the lamentations of a ski instructor. Ever hear of the ides of January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 NAM actually is a decent event for N and W of 95. Pretty much all frozen. Even 95 itself is mostly frozen for most of the storm and only ends as 33-34 degree light rain. Nothing spectacular total wise due to all of the sleet but it would at least be wintry. Something Mt Holly brought up in the AFD is the fact that the storm's later arrival means that Friday night now will be mostly cloud free and could have good radiational cooling conditions. Should help to bottom out temps across the area. Can't hurt. Edit: The ICON is more amped and further NW than the NAM but still has a similar temp profile. It's basically a sleet fest for 75% of the storm ending as a 33-34F light rain for 95. N and W of 95 it's pretty much frozen the entire storm. By the time it gets above freezing, the precip is basically out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 GFS and NAM take basically an identical track with nearly identical timing, the difference being the GFS is 4 MB deeper with the low. Huge difference though with temperatures. The NAM(and ICON) at 18z saturday has the 95 area in the mid-20's with the LV in the low 20's-upper teens while the GFS at the same time is near freezing already in the 95 area with the LV in the mid-upper 20's. Is it a result of the GFS being more amped than the NAM/ICON thus bringing more warm air? Or are the NAM/ICON just handling the CAD better than the GFS? Will be interesting to see what the euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, The Iceman said: GFS and NAM take basically an identical track with nearly identical timing, the difference being the GFS is 4 MB deeper with the low. Huge difference though with temperatures. The NAM(and ICON) at 18z saturday has the 95 area in the mid-20's with the LV in the low 20's-upper teens while the GFS at the same time is near freezing already in the 95 area with the LV in the mid-upper 20's. Is it a result of the GFS being more amped than the NAM/ICON thus bringing more warm air? Or are the NAM?/ICON just handling the CAD better than the GFS? Will be interesting to see what the euro says. Probably a combination of both. I think we end up somewhere in the middle. 1-3” of slop to rain for I-95. 2-5” northwest of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 See we have now introduced sleet. What’s a “winter storm” without that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Has the UKIE ever gotten one right??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 57 minutes ago, Voyager said: Has the UKIE ever gotten one right??? lol Last winter it was a wretched model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Has the UKIE ever gotten one right??? lol Eh, they say it’s good, never really thought so, typically in line with euro, we are both in good spots for 3-6 I’d guess, anything south of us not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 56 minutes ago, RedSky said: Last winter it was a wretched model. I've never heard much good about it. 6 minutes ago, anthonyweather said: Eh, they say it’s good, never really thought so, typically in line with euro, we are both in good spots for 3-6 I’d guess, anything south of us not so much I'll take 3-6 and run I suppose. Was hoping for more (imagine that...lol) but it's better than the usual 1-2 inch slop fests we've been getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I've never heard much good about it. I'll take 3-6 and run I suppose. Was hoping for more (imagine that...lol) but it's better than the usual 1-2 inch slop fests we've been getting. Yeah you're in a good spot for a decent event. Should definitely be all frozen up there. Still may get a lot of sleet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Petition to re-title this thread as, "Winter cracks the door open a smidge to see how the party is, decides to leave instead because it looks boring." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Remember the 12-16" wxsim forecast? From that many days out and always WXSIM is only as good as the GFS and NAM at that range.- models suck this year!!..good to see it closing in closer to reality as we draw closer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Western Berks should Do ok, we usually hold on the frozen longer than forecasted. I’ll settle for 2-4 and some sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 my first call --- 3-6 inches of snow/sleet in LV with frizzle to form a crunch. Then the arctic air sets in with temps not above freezing after Sunday evening for at least the next 5 days or so. The second and bigger storm event comes on or before the 27-30th period, which puts a foot+ of snow on the ground before Groundhogs day. On cue as the pattern changes and the MJO heads toward the COD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Was sort of surprised to not see the 18z nam brought up. Is it because it's the NAM? Anyway, complete frozen event now i95 N and W. Even ends as snow. Really curious to see if the NAN is handling the CAD better than globals and what the mesos do as we get into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was sort of surprised to not see the 18z nam brought up. Is it because it's the NAM? Anyway, complete frozen event now i95 N and W. Even ends as snow. Really curious to see if the NAN is handling the CAD better than globals and what the mesos do as we get into range. Cautiously optimistic. Been burnt way too many times. Let's see what happens with the GFS and Euro later on... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, Birds~69 said: Cautiously optimistic. Been burnt way too many times. Let's see what happens with the GFS and Euro later on... I'm not sure the Euro and GFS are going to pick up the CAD as well as the mesos. The euro hi res maybe and its 18z has all frozen up this way from what Ive read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Was sort of surprised to not see the 18z nam brought up. Is it because it's the NAM? Anyway, complete frozen event now i95 N and W. Even ends as snow. Really curious to see if the NAN is handling the CAD better than globals and what the mesos do as we get into range. That output makes zero sense. Sleet changes to snow with SW winds shifting to W to change it back to snow? Not happening. Although 0Z spits out similar outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, hazwoper said: That output makes zero sense. Sleet changes to snow with SW winds shifting to W to change it back to snow? Not happening. Although 0Z spits out similar outcome Thought the same about the flip back to snow...was odd. All frozen tho 0z run. ICON is now all frozen as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Now that guidance is trending colder the next problem has shown up. The waa and system overall look drier. We have a few days to hopefully tweak things for the good but we just cant find a way to find a break this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Now that guidance is trending colder the next problem has shown up. The waa and system overall look drier. We have a few days to hopefully tweak things for the good but we just cant find a way to find a break this season. Yup, Euro and NAM only printing out .3" of QPF.... cut in half from 24 hours ago. Kind of expected though with the low drifting further and further NW. The best dynamics with the WAA are shifted with it and the dry air eats away at the rest. Plus it's a really fast moving system, precip arrives around noon saturday and it's basically out of here by 00z. Really limits the potential for how much can actually fall. I just hope the qpf bleeding stops today and we can at least squeeze out an inch considering I've yet to hit an inch on the season. But really any more cut's to qpf and this becomes a near non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Now that guidance is trending colder the next problem has shown up. The waa and system overall look drier. We have a few days to hopefully tweak things for the good but we just cant find a way to find a break this season. Do you think this still looks like a 1-3” event for the region? Even an inch would be my biggest, sadly. I think the systems after this one may have more potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: Do you think this still looks like a 1-3” event for the region? I think the systems after this one may have more potential. Seems reasonable. As for the follow up system(s) the favorable looks are headed the wrong way again and getting delayed or the longwaves are just not lining up to produce anything meaningful. I'm afraid the GL cutters and systems just off the coast during cold air retreat are going to continue. It is probably going to take a fluke late in the season to give us something meaningful. Still think we have one large system before its all over. Whether big enough to get us to avg per my outlook tbd. I will be the first to claim I failed at season end....nothing to hide or be ashamed of. Just not looking great right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 38 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Seems reasonable. As for the follow up system(s) the favorable looks are headed the wrong way again and getting delayed or the longwaves are just not lining up to produce anything meaningful. I'm afraid the GL cutters and systems just off the coast during cold air retreat are going to continue. It is probably going to take a fluke late in the season to give us something meaningful. Still think we have one large system before its all over. Whether big enough to get us to avg per my outlook tbd. I will be the first to claim I failed at season end....nothing to hide or be ashamed of. Just not looking great right now. Crazy just yesterday we were worried about the lack of cold for this storm, now it looks to be cold but drier we cant win for loosing My fear is the backloaded winter again where we score in March Ill take snow when we can get it but not a fan of snow one day then gone the next. I guess law of averages has to kick in one of these years and change for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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