Albedoman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Finally something to track this holiday weekend - post your thoughts here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I’m struggling to understand how much of eastern PA gets 6-12” on all these models. The low passes through upstate NY and the high is in an okay position, but not great. What am I missing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Very low DPs and CAD...but not thinking 6-12” despite those factors, latest models are not all showing those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 25 minutes ago, LVblizzard said: I’m struggling to understand how much of eastern PA gets 6-12” on all these models. The low passes through upstate NY and the high is in an okay position, but not great. What am I missing here? the only thing I noticed is that there will much more cold air to work with than previous storms this winter which means the ground will below freezing this time. Accumulation will be almost immediate on the roads where not treated and on the grass. Lots of brine being applied for Friday, thats for sure. Maybe more lift and banding as the warm front comes through Saturday will enable more snow accumulation. Soundings should be interesting as more Pacific data is sampled as the LP gets on shore by wednesday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Starting to see a consistent trend in later start time, lowering accumulations around 95. Euro doesn’t start till 2PM now, following GFS and Canadian. Top accumulations around 8” with ratios (LV & Poconos) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wxsim looks a bit tamer now with 3" to 6" of snow/IP - it will change as the models move....stay tuned! Saturday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a mix of sleet and snow likely in the afternoon. High 32. Wind chill around 19. Wind south-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the morning, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2 to 4 inches. Saturday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy after midnight. A mix of snow and rain likely in the evening, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow after midnight. Low 30, but temperatures rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 20 to 28. Wind south around 11 mph, gusting to 23 mph, in the evening, becoming west-southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I think we may do better than NYC with this one due to starting sooner. I wouldn’t go 6-12”, but 2-4”/3-6” looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Changeover to non-snow precip almost always happens sooner than modeled. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Changeover to non-snow precip almost always happens sooner than modeled. So true...usually 1-2+ hours sooner. It's always depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 59 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: So true...usually 1-2+ hours sooner. It's always depressing. And almost always is a fast mover. Once Allentown flips, we here in Tamaqua flip about a half hour later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 And almost always is a fast mover. Once Allentown flips, we here in Tamaqua flip about a half hour later...Agreed. Not a fan of these events. The models always delay the flip which rises expectations. Then when I hear the first few "pings" hours before it was forecast. Big let down. But honestly this still should be the biggest even of the "winter" so far. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Voyager said: And almost always is a fast mover. Once Allentown flips, we here in Tamaqua flip about a half hour later... And once Philly flips I'm about 1/2 later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I think it’s safe to just pick the model with the lowest totals and go with it. Right now that would be the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 ICON is a major sleet/ice event...only about an inch snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 It's so damn hard to get a all snow event these days. Seems to get worse every year. I just want to see snow on the roads at this point. No matter how little...just snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looking more and more like a N and W of 95 event now imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Canadian drying up a bit. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 11 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Canadian drying up a bit. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Can't say I'm not surprised. They all start out impressive, and then when it's "go time" they end up being a 1-3 or 2-4 inch slopfest... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Still 4 more days of this to trend...to 33F and rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 49 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Looking more and more like a N and W of 95 event now imo. Looking like a trivial event maybe we can score 1" which would be our largest storm of the season. <deep breath.....exhales slowly> sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The primary tracks north of Chicago now. How was this not expected with our dominant SE ridge, bad Pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Can't say I'm not surprised. They all start out impressive, and then when it's "go time" they end up being a 1-3 or 2-4 inch slopfest... @mattinpa, what confused you about this post? The GFS is slowly cutting totals, and the 12z Euro today drastically cut them. We see it all the time. Juiced up system a week out, and then the qpf and/or snow totals get whittled down. Likely due to more ip/zr vs snow as the qpf on this one hasn't changed much. I suppose there's a reason why they are called fantasy maps, but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Voyager said: @mattinpa, what confused you about this post? The GFS is slowly cutting totals, and the 12z Euro today drastically cut them. We see it all the time. Juiced up system a week out, and then the qpf and/or snow totals get whittled down. Likely due to more ip/zr vs snow as the qpf on this one hasn't changed much. I suppose there's a reason why they are called fantasy maps, but still... Still too far out to know it will be a non event. With the low placement, there is no way we are getting a big storm, but it is worth watching. For a time we have had a lot of storms work out. The last couple seasons have been different, but we have had luck over the past 10-15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Still too far out to know it will be a non event. With the low placement, there is no way we are getting a big storm, but it is worth watching. For a time we have had a lot of storms work out. The last couple seasons have been different, but we have had luck over the past 10-15 years. I don't think it'll be a non-event, but what was being depicted over the weekend sure looks like it's off the table (for now anyway). In 2 days I went from a 6-10 on the clown maps to 3-6. The Euro was the most drastic though, showing 8" on today's 0z to just 4" on the 12z. And I hope you don't think that I was/am being "snarky", because I wasn't trying to be. It's just that I, and most of the rest of us as well, have seen this play out before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The new snow hype GFS is one of the problems which hasn't changed since last winter, can't look at those fantasy winter maps. They corrected some of the issue where it snowed too much when boundary layers were garbage but the problem persists. But many are aware of these issues chalk this next debacle to the ECM miss handling the strong SE ridge. What is more troubling is today's ECM day 10 and the tepid temperatures in north america all the arctic cold is on the other side of the pole, which is bad news for the last week of January pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Am I missing something? The QPF is jumping around (of course) but the setup still looks pretty damn similar, If anything it looks like it may be slowing down a bit which would help out. You guys know way more then me, but it doesnt look like a ton has really changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, Jsdphilly said: Am I missing something? The QPF is jumping around (of course) but the setup still looks pretty damn similar, If anything it looks like it may be slowing down a bit which would help out. You guys know way more then me, but it doesnt look like a ton has really changed. Slowing down is what you don't want, you needed the moisture surging into the retreating arctic high to get dynamic snows, delay that and south winds screw up everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I don't think it'll be a non-event, but what was being depicted over the weekend sure looks like it's off the table (for now anyway). In 2 days I went from a 6-10 on the clown maps to 3-6. The Euro was the most drastic though, showing 8" on today's 0z to just 4" on the 12z. And I hope you don't think that I was/am being "snarky", because I wasn't trying to be. It's just that I, and most of the rest of us as well, have seen this play out before. No worries. I was just confused because we have had a lot of nice storms over the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 23 minutes ago, RedSky said: Slowing down is what you don't want, you needed the moisture surging into the retreating arctic high to get dynamic snows, delay that and south winds screw up everything. Thanks for the clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z gfs slowed the bleeding a bit. Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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