nj2va Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I'm in Deep Creek this weekend so tracking this for out there. 18z GFS was 0.5-0.6" QPF frozen. Temps go above freezing shortly after 18z Saturday there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: With 96 hours to go that map at least keeps us in the game. Obviously it could trend into a Quebec special, but a couple hundred miles south over 4 days amongst friends is doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Sleet totals WB 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Sleet totals WB 18Z GFS Column looks good for that area in southern/eastern PA. Most of that would be snow, although a good amount of it would be low ratio stuff with some sleet if this verified verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 22 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Im curious to see the meso models when they come into range by Thursday. If they start showing a bit better initial waa thump then that might be all most need to hold onto the column long enough for a 2-4" before sleet / ice. We need like .3 to .5" in 6hrs I'd think to help hold the column longer. Still a wayys to go with this WAA thump will be hard. The column will be so very, very dry with that 1046 HP strength and placement. GFS at 1am Saturday. The bottom 1/3rd of the snow growth zone is super dry and the balance of the descent for the snowflakes is an absolute desert with dews at the surface around 0F. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z euro is souther/colder. Small change but every inch makes a diference in these parts. Run ends at hr90 so don't know if it made any difference. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Thanks for posting btw Where is that local? I plugged in Gfs at 12z Saturday right as precip enters ( Winchester,Va) and it looks better but still a little dry . It's point and click on northern MoCo (Clarksburg-ish). 6 hours later and 50 miles WSW to Winchester, I am not surprised to see saturation. But, by then, we're losing the 850's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z euro is souther/colder. Small change but every inch makes a diference in these parts. Run ends at hr90 so don't know if it made any difference. The primary is south but that hadn’t mattered at all on past runs. It has no WAA surge to the east. Precip is nowhere near us at 12z. That run won’t end well imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Eps has a bit less ridging ahead of our system. Also a tick wetter . Babbby steps Also LP is about 3mb weaker on Saturday at 12z . Following the op but it was an incremental run over run improvement. 18z was friendly. No big shifts or anything but the bleeding stopped... for now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 18z Eps has a bit less ridging ahead of our system. Also a tick wetter . 850s hang on longer as well .Babbby steps Also LP is about 3mb weaker on Saturday at 12z . 18z NAM showed a bit less ridging which is what PSU was Sharing this AM wrt GFS and Euro. I’m rooting that scenario on and will deal with whatever comes as it will lessen warm nose intrusion to mids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 They’ve always been terrible. I’ll never understand how they developed such a large followingIt was during the 2009-10 winter. They just happened to be right more often than not because that winter was just that good. Sort of like JB. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, anotherman said: It was during the 2009-10 winter. They just happened to be right more often than not because that winter was just that good. Sort of like JB. True lol. I think I started my weather page the winter before that one. It certainly helped to get followers. I’m no where near them but 7500 strong now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Focus on the storm, please. Not FB posts or other distractions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 0z Icon won’t make any friends that’s for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: 0z Icon won’t make any friends that’s for sure There is no miracle play that I can see with this one. It’s a Midwest storm that may throw some flakes our way. It would take a major change to change our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: There is no miracle play that I can see with this one. It’s a Midwest storm that may throw some flakes our way. It would take a major change to change our fate. Still a bit of time, but things need to happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 0z GFS largely unchanged. Maybe slightly worse/warmer but just noise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro is as bad as can be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 hours ago, jaydreb said: 0z GFS largely unchanged. Maybe slightly worse/warmer but just noise. I dont think it is noise. A couple of runs ago the GFS went from 8 inches to 2 inches for me... and it hasnt really recovered at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 56 minutes ago, mappy said: Yikes. starting storm threads on monday for a saturday storm. Good job 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: starting storm threads on monday for a saturday storm. Good job That is surely the reason why this now looks bleak. That, and that alone caused this storm to trend from an intrinsically bad set up where the models at range had everything going right, to what is now the most likely outcome with a surface low tracking to Toronto. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 24 minutes ago, Ji said: starting storm threads on monday for a saturday storm. Good job Yup -- Randy should have listened to me when I said we wait another day or two. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 People need to keep in mind that we don’t need some type of Hail Mary with this. The shift we need isn’t huge. At 72+ hours getting a shift of 100 miles isn’t out of the realm. I still maintain it’s the position of the low. We just need it to trend south a few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: People need to keep in mind that we don’t need some type of Hail Mary with this. The shift we need isn’t huge. At 72+ hours getting a shift of 100 miles isn’t out of the realm. I still maintain it’s the position of the low. We just need it to trend south a few runs. Not gonna happen. SE ridge pumping up out in front of the primary tracking north of us. 6z gfs says it’s all but over. Think this one is toast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2020 Author Share Posted January 15, 2020 26 minutes ago, mappy said: Yup -- Randy should have listened to me when I said we wait another day or two. You're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: People need to keep in mind that we don’t need some type of Hail Mary with this. The shift we need isn’t huge. At 72+ hours getting a shift of 100 miles isn’t out of the realm. I still maintain it’s the position of the low. We just need it to trend south a few runs. Go back on TT and cycle through the gfs and euro runs the last 72 hours and compare the “snowy vs not” runs. The strength and track of the primary have no correlation to our snow with this setup. The runs that had less ridging and this a more elongated trough to the east of the low to direct the winds ahead of the system more east into the mid Atlantic (hence WAA) were good. Regardless of the primary low location. The runs with more ridge and sharper trough were bad, regardless of the low. Now if you adjusted the low far enough south it would matter. But that would have to be a huge adjustment. Moving it 50 or 100 miles won’t matter when it’s cutting through Wisconsin. An adjustment from Green Bay to Milwaukee won’t help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Go back on TT and cycle through the gfs and euro runs the last 72 hours and compare the “snowy vs not” runs. The strength and track of the primary have no correlation to our snow with this setup. The runs that had less ridging and this a more elongated trough to the east of the low to direct the winds ahead of the system more east into the mid Atlantic (hence WAA) were good. Regardless of the primary low location. The runs with more ridge and sharper trough were bad, regardless of the low. Now if you adjusted the low far enough south it would matter. But that would have to be a huge adjustment. Moving it 50 or 100 miles won’t matter when it’s cutting through Wisconsin. An adjustment from Green Bay to Milwaukee won’t help. Look at the modeled radar on the last GFS run at 18z Sat. Look at the precip shield at about 41 lat. Move that low to South Bend and you’re gonna move that precip shield. If we can get precip, I think we’ll stay cold enough for frozen if some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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