BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Phase 5 of the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro 36 hours ago Euro Now If this keeps up those with chase plans might want to look into Quebec City 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Phase 5 of the MJO. Primary in Minnesota. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Could always be the time when models from about 72 hours out start coming back hard for us. Doesn’t happen often but it does occasionally happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yup, still bleeding. Actually euro and gfs both have the shortwave slightly weaker relative to 0z at least, but the damn ridge keeps growing each run. Not sure why exactly. I think the slower forward progress is part of that. Also..looking at the last 48 hours of runs...good and bad, the actual strength and position of the shortwave is irrelevant to the results here. With the better runs were solely the beneficiary of a lead wave of WAA precip associated with strong mid level winds directed into the CAD in the mid Atlantic. But as the ridge continues to strengthen, sharpening the trough...there will be no wave and the WAA with the main system will be directed well to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Strengthening Atlantic ridge + sharper trough = not gonna happen on this one. On a brighter note, we have a pattern change upon us once this crappy system clears through. Ridge building out west and shortwaves diving through the southern states for at least next 5-7 days after this weekend. I’ve thought for last two weeks that come end of January and beginning February we start to see real chances. I think it’s coming down the pipeline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If this keeps up those with chase plans might want to look into Quebec City A chase would have been nice, but my expectations going back a week or so was that we would be back in the game for the last week or so of the month. That still looks good. If this works out, it is a bonus given it is literally occurring at the initial stages of a significant pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I think all the solutions from 0.5” for DC to 8” have been shown in last 12 hours so cover all bases parameter requirement has been fulfilled. and without NWP there would have been absolutely NO FREAKING IDEA that there was even a remote chance at any frozen precip Saturday beyond simply taking a WAG. So yes at day 5/6 there is a HUGE spread...but that spread is between a little bit of non consequential snow/ice to rain and a decent thump snow to dryslot. As we get closer the guidance will narrow the possibilities until we get within 48 hours and they typically show a realistic range. But the bottom line is the NWP can outperform humans with no help from guidance at EVERY RANGE. Yea the range and accuracy isn't perfect at day 5 but before NWP humans didn't even attempt to forecast details that far out because it was impossible. You do not grade NWP on a realistic scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 He’s the kind of guy that said flying machines would never happen and the first time one crashed he shook his cane towards the wreckage and said, “I told you so!!” A new dinosaur for our era. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are run by run heading toward a showery cold frontal passage. Still time but this trend has to turn I am always cautious when we see long range guidance spit out a lot of snow from a cutter. It does happen. And we remember those times it did. But in reality for every one of those there are way more that just end up being a mostly rain event. This one has a pretty good antecedent air-mass so it still might end up better then the majority...but the specter of big snows from these west track lows is a lot more of a longshot than we make it sometimes. Every few years one of them ejects a lead wave that directs a strong mid level wave into the CAD and we get a nice thump snow...and then we think there is a good chance of that every time a cutter comes along with cold air in front of it. What guidance is moving towards now is the more typical outcome. I am not saying there is no chance it doesn't trend back towards a nice lead wave...but odds always were and continue to be against it. We probably would be in a much better place mentally had the guidance not teased us for 24 hours with the rare snowy outcome from this type of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: I am always cautious when we see long range guidance spit out a lot of snow from a cutter. It does happen. And we remember those times it did. But in reality for every one of those there are way more that just end up being a mostly rain event. This one has a pretty good antecedent air-mass so it still might end up better then the majority...but the specter of big snows from these west track lows is a lot more of a longshot than we make it sometimes. Every few years one of them ejects a lead wave that directs a strong mid level wave into the CAD and we get a nice thump snow...and then we think there is a good chance of that every time a cutter comes along with cold air in front of it. What guidance is moving towards now is the more typical outcome. I am not saying there is no chance it doesn't trend back towards a nice lead wave...but odds always were and continue to be against it. We probably would be in a much better place mentally had the guidance not teased us for 24 hours with the rare snowy outcome from this type of thing. it didnt spit out that much snow lol...nobody was thinking more than 2-4....but we wanted 2-4---thats a blizzard this year. I dont think 2-4 into a big Fat CAD high was too much to ask for with temps in the 20s....i mean its not like we lost a Winter storm warning snow event but in this winter...losing 2-4 hurts. even losing 2 hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Could always be the time when models from about 72 hours out start coming back hard for us. Doesn’t happen often but it does occasionally happen. Didn't that just happen with the last storm... I think we used it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ji said: it didnt spit out that much snow lol...nobody was thinking more than 2-4....but we wanted 2-4---thats a blizzard this year. I dont think 2-4 into a big Fat CAD high was too much to ask for with temps in the 20s....i mean its not like we lost a Winter storm warning snow event but in this winter...losing 2-4 hurts. even losing 2 hurts 2-4 is a LOT from a storm cutting over Chicago in the middle of an uber ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Pretty remarkable how things turned bad within minutes of this thread being opened (right before yesterday’s 12z Euro). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: Pretty remarkable how things turned bad within minutes of this thread being opened (right before yesterday’s 12z Euro). The snow gods are real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty remarkable how things turned bad within minutes of this thread being opened (right before yesterday’s 12z Euro). Unfortunately it's pretty common until inside of 72 hours. The vast majority of our events aren't figured out until inside of 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Unfortunately it's pretty common until inside of 72 hours. The vast majority of our events are figured out until inside of 3 days. True. And since the vast majority of Day 5 threats are likely to fail (just averages/climo), threads started at Day 5 usually don’t work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 2-4 is a LOT from a storm cutting over Chicago in the middle of an uber ridge. LOL it is and always was. We don’t get snow from lows in Iowa. The only real chance was to get it to trend south. This isn’t a cutter. This is a Midwest storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 EPS supports the op. Getting to the range where it likely will most runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Pretty remarkable how things turned bad within minutes of this thread being opened (right before yesterday’s 12z Euro). I think it was last year where we deleted/locked the Storm thread and things improved. Wouldn’t hurt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 EPS only has about 15 percent of Members with 2 or more inches DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 NOT Nam'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Its pulling at hairs and its not really significant but the ICON somehow manages to be slightly better with a little initial snow in Central MD despite being a bit worse early on...grasping. Its still cold-ish until 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 ICON is basically all frozen 95 north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looks like a couple inches of snow in central md followed by several hours of sleet and freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 14 minutes ago, MD Snow said: ICON is basically all frozen 95 north and west. I still think ice is a real threat. Im just am not a fan of ice so I don’t talk about it much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Gfs holds onto 850s just a bit longer this run...see if it made a difference in a second Looks like it did to me..more snow than 12z for me anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gfs seems much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs seems much wetter I’m not sure it’s wetter - at least not for DC area- but it looks a bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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