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January 18th Event


stormtracker
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Just now, Scraff said:

GFS looks too mixey to me. Not much of an initial thump. 

Still bleeding the wrong way with storm and ridge strength. And as @psuhoffman showed, a more consolidated storm has less overrunning in the warm sector. Good news is we’re still 4.5 days away. Bad news is we’re still 4.5 days away.

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GFS trended towards the euro wrt what I posted earlier...it was clear to see pretty early on in the midwest, sharper trough, more consolidated system, not good.  Frankly the GFS has been trending that way for the last 24 hours also...it just overcame it with a stronger mid level flow out ahead but as the trough continues to sharpen that energy will end up directed northwest of us.  

 

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20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Still bleeding the wrong way with storm and ridge strength. And as @psuhoffman showed, a more consolidated storm has less overrunning in the warm sector. Good news is we’re still 4.5 days away. Bad news is we’re still 4.5 days away.

Basically looking at this as the  “windshield wiper” effect. Good old Bernie Reyno thoughts.  Lol. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

early on Euro still trending the wrong way

Yup, still bleeding. Actually euro and gfs both have the shortwave slightly weaker relative to 0z at least, but the damn ridge keeps growing each run. Not sure why exactly. I think the slower forward progress is part of that. 

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, still bleeding. Actually euro and gfs both have the shortwave slightly weaker relative to 0z at least, but the damn ridge keeps growing each run. Not sure why exactly. I think the slower forward progress is part of that. 

More time to pump the ridge in front. 

Euro is close to a total non event now. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

early on Euro still trending the wrong way

Yea, I woke up and checked out the 0z and 6z runs and knew right away some of the top end solutions were off the table for good. I'm kinda out on this event unless we get some incremental steps back. By "out" I mean writing off a respectable snowfall. I'll still track and hopefully I get at least an inch. You can still do well but the battle is climbing a hill. 

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FWIW I think last week’s event looked to be trending pretty terribly at around this many hours out but had a bit of a recovery getting closer. Or maybe (probably) I’m just grasping at straws. What I wouldn’t give for a storm that gets trumpeted by the euro first, then collects the other models, rather than the other way around....

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