stormtracker Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Well, can’t say there’s a lot to love on the GFS. Could be worse tho. Looks like a 3 to 5 hr window of snow falling before mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: GFS looks too mixey to me. Not much of an initial thump. Still bleeding the wrong way with storm and ridge strength. And as @psuhoffman showed, a more consolidated storm has less overrunning in the warm sector. Good news is we’re still 4.5 days away. Bad news is we’re still 4.5 days away. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gfs bending the knee to euro. To be expected. Initial thump is muted from 6z. Still 1-2”... maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just have to keep watching what transpires. The last 24 hours of runs has not been kind. The 12z euro started this yesterday. Perhaps it starts the trend the other way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS trended towards the euro wrt what I posted earlier...it was clear to see pretty early on in the midwest, sharper trough, more consolidated system, not good. Frankly the GFS has been trending that way for the last 24 hours also...it just overcame it with a stronger mid level flow out ahead but as the trough continues to sharpen that energy will end up directed northwest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS Certainly went a step to euro but its still probably .5 frozen for NE MD, so Id take it but the bleeding needs to stop or we'll all end with a mix period at 32F temps that wont do crap before 33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 This is a pretty good picture of what has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Still bleeding the wrong way with storm and ridge strength. And as @psuhoffman showed, a more consolidated storm has less overrunning in the warm sector. Good news is we’re still 4.5 days away. Bad news is we’re still 4.5 days away. Basically looking at this as the “windshield wiper” effect. Good old Bernie Reyno thoughts. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Canadian is warm...lol above freezing already by 18z...hopefully its not showing the CAD well enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Canadian is warm...lol above freezing already by 18z...hopefully its not showing the CAD well enough If the Canadian is warm it might be safe to say we are screwed to use a non-technical term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The Canadian is an awful model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The Canadian models run warm because it’s always so cold in Canada being off by a few degrees doesn’t matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GEFS anybody? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Hug P 8....actually about 60% of the GEFS are still acceptable outcomes for DC Northward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Big step back on the GEFS. No wiggle room for DC or even Baltimore. Let's hope happy hour is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Hug P 8....actually about 60% of the GEFS are still acceptable outcomes for DC Northward. Yeah, Id take 13 out of the 20 and run for my backyard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Big step back on the GEFS. No wiggle room for DC or even Baltimore. Let's hope happy hour is better. Yeah not much wiggle room. I dont know how realistic it is but we need a slight bump south at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 early on Euro still trending the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 hopefully 0z tonight is a bit friendlier to us and trends back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro looks pretty anemic with precip through 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: early on Euro still trending the wrong way Yup, still bleeding. Actually euro and gfs both have the shortwave slightly weaker relative to 0z at least, but the damn ridge keeps growing each run. Not sure why exactly. I think the slower forward progress is part of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Yup, still bleeding. Actually euro and gfs both have the shortwave slightly weaker relative to 0z at least, but the damn ridge keeps growing each run. Not sure why exactly. I think the slower forward progress is part of that. More time to pump the ridge in front. Euro is close to a total non event now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: early on Euro still trending the wrong way Yea, I woke up and checked out the 0z and 6z runs and knew right away some of the top end solutions were off the table for good. I'm kinda out on this event unless we get some incremental steps back. By "out" I mean writing off a respectable snowfall. I'll still track and hopefully I get at least an inch. You can still do well but the battle is climbing a hill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: More time to pump the ridge in front. Euro is close to a total non event now. We are run by run heading toward a showery cold frontal passage. Still time but this trend has to turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Yup, Trending in the wrong direction today. I am not posting a snow map because it is too depressing. Dr. No is striking again. But it is only Jan 14. Don’t panic...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: We are run by run heading toward a showery cold frontal passage. Still time but this trend has to turn yep and it keeps turning every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 FWIW I think last week’s event looked to be trending pretty terribly at around this many hours out but had a bit of a recovery getting closer. Or maybe (probably) I’m just grasping at straws. What I wouldn’t give for a storm that gets trumpeted by the euro first, then collects the other models, rather than the other way around.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I think all the solutions from 0.5” for DC to 8” have been shown in last 12 hours so cover all bases parameter requirement has been fulfilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: dang...cant even chase in the upper mid atlantic Doesn't even seem like cold air is the only problem. No precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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