Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Plus seems a bit slower... almost looks like no one is getting frozen this run besides the usual far N and W Still gets some snow in at 111-114...actually this is a situation where N and E may be the best places to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Actually, ICON is pretty icy... even into the i95 corridor. 2mT are below 32 for most... even upper 20s i81 corridor at 120 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 10 minutes ago, yoda said: Plus seems a bit slower... almost looks like no one is getting frozen this run besides the usual far N and W Careful... TTT doesn't show ice/sleet for the ICON. Check surface temps. Looks like ice verbatim to me. Shows all ice for CHO actually... heh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Icon doesnt show sleet/ice on tt. If you look at temps it keeps dc below freezing through 00z Sunday. Would be quite the ice storm verbatim for the north west burbs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: Actually, ICON is pretty icy... even into the i95 corridor. 2mT are below 32 for most... even upper 20s i81 corridor at 120 Indeed. Why doesn’t it have a sleet/freezing rain graphic in the conditionals? Damn Germans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Icon doesnt show sleet/ice on tt. If you look at temps it keeps dc below freezing through 00z Sunday. Would be quite the ice storm verbatim for the north west burbs. Yeah, I just figured that out It drops a quick burst of snow... then we all go to ice for quite a while. DCA sits at 32 at 03z SUN and is like 34 by 06z SUN as the precip shuts off/dryslots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 ICON was actually better imo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Little slower and more north on GFS...probably not as good but still looks like a good bit of frozen coming for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS even slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 114 not bad. Frozen for everybody. Looks like snow for me still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: GFS even slower. maybe by an hour? looks practically identical on the head-to-head WxBell maps. Stunningly similar IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: maybe by an hour? looks practically identical on the head-to-head WxBell maps. Stunningly similar IMO. You’re right. I was using TT six hour panels. It has trended slower over the past 3 or 4 runs though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, Ji said: So frustrating enjoy the sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Lancaster PA is the place to be on this run...I’ll take it but hopefully no more significant slow downs or shifts north. I think the CAD could play in our favor and continue to trend better there but we know we need to halt the slow down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I'll take the 00z CMC and run with it... snow to ice to dryslot just in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: enjoy the sleet bomb That's what happens when your primary is in Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 CMC clown map is LOLz. I’ll hug it hard though. It’s has to be right once at some point in life right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 hour ago, yoda said: I'll take the 00z CMC and run with it... snow to ice to dryslot just in time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Gem actually trended quite a bit colder and south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GEFS a step back - at least for DC metro. Cuts the snowfall total in half. Not sure if this means more sleet than snow or just less frozen overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Ah so the speed of this onebseems to be the determine factor? (so we want faster not slower?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro slower but snow to ice to dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Euro overall is really dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Looking over the EPS and the changes seen from the 12Z were minimal. Western trough is slightly quicker but it is somewhat of a wash as confluence and associated High pressure to our north is a touch quicker departing as well. High pressure to our north is a touch weaker and our system is also a touch weaker as well with a similar track as the 12z. Accounting for the slight differences on timing with precip (00z is a touch quicker) the CAD is almost spot on to the 12Z. All in all what we saw was pretty much noise from run to run. As far as the snowfall means we did see an improvement. Saw a roughly 1/2" increase over the 12z from just south of the cities and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6z GFS holds for the most part. A little bit warmer perhaps but maybe slightly faster with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6z GFS WB. Better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 6 hours ago, Baltimorewx said: Lancaster PA is the place to be on this run...I’ll take it but hopefully no more significant slow downs or shifts north. I think the CAD could play in our favor and continue to trend better there but we know we need to halt the slow down I don’t think the CAD is the issue, pretty sure it’s the low location and 850 temps rising while the surface stays cold, hence the uptick in sleet and ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 hours ago, Ji said: Euro overall is really dry Hard not to be when the low is 1500 miles away. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 I know some on here are rooting for a shallower drop of the trough in the west. At this time with what is being presented on the models I am actually rooting for a deeper drop. Let me explain. Below we have the GEFS and the EPS at 96 hrs. What we have is the trough moving through a very broad area of lower pressures in the west. What I want you to note is the location it is deciding to initiate the development of our primary from within this large expanse of lower pressures. What we are seeing on both the EPS and the GEFS is that they are having this development on the base of the trough just on the front side. And for the most part this is what we have been seeing for the last 2 days or so on these models. Now some may argue that this deeper drop is pumping up the ridging in front and thus the warming the temps hurting our chances for frozen. I don't really think that is a concern at this time. If you notice we have a very strong CAD signature and that will be very hard to erode out especially with the farther western track we are seeing with our low. I think at this point our far bigger concern is actually getting some decent moisture overrunning our CAD vs. any potential warming. This is where the trough drop and the primary development come into play. What it basically comes down to is the track of our low. Below is what we would be looking at with a shallower drop of the trough assuming that the primary initiates on its base. What we have is a good moisture source running through the southern tier of which our low will be tapping into. With the low being farther north it has a harder time tapping into this source. What we also see is the best moisture is following to the south and east of the track of this low. There is a very real danger with this of seeing the best moisture to our west and north in this scenario. But look at we see with a deeper drop. The low is better able to tap into the southern moisture giving us a better moisture feed then the above. Also note that the track is more favorable to getting that good moisture flow running through our area. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 About 50 percent of the EPS members from 0z would give 2 or inches DCA north. Slight uptick from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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