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January 18th Event


stormtracker
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1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Icon doesnt show sleet/ice on tt. If you look at temps it keeps dc below freezing through 00z Sunday. Would be quite the ice storm verbatim for the north west burbs.

Yeah, I just figured that out :axe:

It drops a quick burst of snow... then we all go to ice for quite a while.  DCA sits at 32 at 03z SUN and is like 34 by 06z SUN as the precip shuts off/dryslots

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Looking over the EPS and the changes seen from the 12Z were minimal. Western trough is slightly quicker but it is somewhat of a wash as confluence and associated High pressure to our north is a touch quicker departing as well. High pressure to our north is a touch weaker and our system is also a touch weaker as well with a similar track as the 12z. Accounting for the slight differences on timing with precip (00z is a touch quicker) the CAD is almost spot on to the 12Z. All in all what we saw was pretty much noise from run to run. As far as the snowfall means we did see an improvement. Saw a roughly 1/2" increase over the 12z from just south of the cities and north.

 

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6 hours ago, Baltimorewx said:

Lancaster PA is the place to be on this run...I’ll take it but hopefully no more significant slow downs or shifts north. I think the CAD could play in our favor and continue to trend better there but we know we need to halt the slow down 

I don’t think the CAD is the issue, pretty sure it’s the low location and 850 temps rising while the surface stays cold, hence the uptick in sleet and ice 

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I know some on here are rooting for a shallower drop of the trough in the west. At this time with what is being presented on the models I am actually rooting for a deeper drop. Let me explain.

Below we have the GEFS and the EPS at 96 hrs. What we have is the trough moving through a very broad area of lower pressures in the west. What I want you to note is the location it is deciding to initiate the development of our primary from within this large expanse of lower pressures. What we are seeing on both the EPS and the GEFS is that they are having this development on the base of the trough just on the front side. And for the most part this is what we have been seeing for the last 2 days or so on these models.

EPS96hr.gif.83cd6eea13cca5f37d05a821fc152c62.gif

 

GEFS96hr.gif.d5ef780824fed3df2f925d435f6be460.gif

 

Now some may argue that this deeper drop is pumping up the ridging in front and thus the warming the temps hurting our chances for frozen. I don't really think that is a concern at this time. If you notice we have a very strong CAD signature and that will be very hard to erode out especially with the farther western track we are seeing with our low. I think at this point our far bigger concern is actually getting some decent moisture overrunning our CAD vs. any potential warming. This is where the trough drop and the primary development come into play. What it basically comes down to is the track of our low.

Below is  what we would be looking at with a shallower drop of the trough assuming that the primary initiates on its base. What we have is a good moisture source running through the southern tier of which our low will be tapping into. With the low being farther north it has a harder time tapping into this source. What we also see is the best moisture is following to the south and east of the track of this low. There is a very real danger with this of seeing the best moisture to our west and north in this scenario.

shallowdrop.gif.3383bebb5c8eb970c1b26b4a9aad5a7d.gif

 

 

But look at we see with a deeper drop. The low is better able to tap into the southern moisture giving us a better moisture feed then the above. Also note that the track is more favorable to getting that good moisture flow running through our area.

 

deeperdrop.gif.cadc2cfb37671eb7c848c137e3a77802.gif

 

 

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