NorthArlington101 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Nice axis of precip Might have to drive back up to Arlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, H2O said: Given how the last storm went, I’d be fine with this trending further south all week. That ensures cold temps get in and stay in You an I suffered through some rain on 40 degree soil last storm. Not this time it appears. We might even tally up some snowcover days if everything glaciates. Getting ahead of ourselves with that talk tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We might even tally up some snowcover days if everything glaciates. It does look pretty cold, after the fact next weekend, and it looks like a fast mover with some very cold air so any melted snow will freeze over. It won't be long before it snows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 @psuhoffman my favorite part of the 18z gefs spread was how many solutions have ice in NC. The cold has really deepened on models today. Might not be done yet but prob close. ZR in Jacksonville is rare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z op euro slightly less amped in the Midwest and colder in front at 90 when it ends. Won’t extrapolate but that isn’t a bad thing. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 WPC probability of > 0.25” QPF of snow/sleet. Impressive for D5 leads. 50% for mountains/northern tier. 30% north of EZF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Wowza! That 18z GEFS NAMd us. I’ll take my personal 1.21 of QPF and like it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Nice write up by Channel 9 DC. Sloppy weekend storm may bring wintry mischief to DC area http://www.wusa9.com/mobile/article/weather/weather-blog/weekend-storm-threat-jan-2020/65-abfb8331-1ad5-4efb-8831-edfb27dfae87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 2 hours ago, HighStakes said: During the last hour or two of last weeks snow there was some really good high ratio stuff. Really nice dendrites falling up here at 30 degrees. Snow piled up quick. Can confirm. Was awesome. 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Mean QPF on the 18z gefs for the event is the juiciest I've seen yet. Yesssss, love it. I hope all cashes in, me just a tad more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z eps not impressive and a little worse than 12z. Still high chance of some snow but nothing like the gfs/gefs. Couple inches tops for the most part. 18z eps also followed the slower trend. It negates the positive of colder/stronger high leading in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 18z eps was not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z eps not impressive and a little worse than 12z. Still high chance of some snow but nothing like the gfs/gefs. Couple inches tops for the most part. 18z eps also followed the slower trend. It negates the positive of colder/stronger high leading in. That trough deepens any more it’s gonna pop enough ridging that this is gonna cut to Minnesota. If there’s anything I’m gonna be hoping for as I watch the 500 come in on the 0z runs its going to be for a much flatter look mid continent. I certainly am not being a deb but I don’t think there’s been anything positive about the last 8 hours of runs ... Euro and gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That trough deepens any more it’s gonna pop enough ridging that this is gonna cut to Minnesota. If there’s anything I’m gonna be hoping for as I watch the 500 come in on the 0z runs its going to be for a much flatter look mid continent. I certainly am not being a deb but I don’t think there’s been anything positive about the last 8 hours of runs ... Euro and gfs. The CAD has been a lot better on runs today but yeah it doesn’t matter if it’s gonna significantly slow down and cut more. I’m not gonna sweat it quite yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That trough deepens any more it’s gonna pop enough ridging that this is gonna cut to Minnesota. If there’s anything I’m gonna be hoping for as I watch the 500 come in on the 0z runs its going to be for a much flatter look mid continent. I certainly am not being a deb but I don’t think there’s been anything positive about the last 8 hours of runs ... Euro and gfs. I thought the GFS/GEFS were pretty good at 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That trough deepens any more it’s gonna pop enough ridging that this is gonna cut to Minnesota. If there’s anything I’m gonna be hoping for as I watch the 500 come in on the 0z runs its going to be for a much flatter look mid continent. I certainly am not being a deb but I don’t think there’s been anything positive about the last 8 hours of runs ... Euro and gfs. You smartly noticed that earlier today IIRC which was a good call & key feature to pay attention to. The slower onset really isn’t helping us....although these tend to come in quicker than modeled so there’s that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I thought the GFS/GEFS were pretty good at 12z and 18z The trend though is a deeper trough and more ridging. That’s why the low went north at 18z. However this is the second time the models have done this with this storm. Last time it reversed itself for a few runs. Long way to go. Nothing to worry about or get excited about at this point imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That trough deepens any more it’s gonna pop enough ridging that this is gonna cut to Minnesota. If there’s anything I’m gonna be hoping for as I watch the 500 come in on the 0z runs its going to be for a much flatter look mid continent. I certainly am not being a deb but I don’t think there’s been anything positive about the last 8 hours of runs ... Euro and gfs. The gfs and euro are pretty similar wrt to the major h5 features but the euro is 5mb deeper in the Midwest with the surface low. The amplification slows the system and pulls it north. Wrt to everything else they are fairly similar for that range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherPSU Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The Stages of model hugging... 1) Excitement that a major storm is coming and the celebration begins with thoughts of shoveling and hot cocoa 2) One model run flips to a wet and not white scenario - depression sets in. 3) Night model run comes in with a sweet hit and we all go to bed like Santa is arriving in the morning. 4) Wake-up in the morning and the storm vanishes 5) Afternoon model runs show a Southern tracker - everyone is pissed off. 6) The storm vanishes all together and on to the next storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Hopefully recent history of systems being over amped across guidance will continue. I know there's been a couple in the past few weeks . Every setup is different but that's been the trend Yeah but this past weekends system pretty much trended much slower and more amped over time, no? So that one kind of broke the mold. I know the game Saturday night was expected to possibly contain rain but obviously ended up dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 What feature do we need to work in our favor to soften the ridge in the Midwest and flatten the track of the low pressure? Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: You got me there . I honestly didn't track much of this most recent system since it was 60s and rain lol Just trying to be transparent lol. I’m really rooting for this one...I want my first clean 1” of snow. Haven’t had it yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 We’re still at a range where these shifts are noise. Only feels significant because we are on thin ice in west track scenarios needing everything to go right. But if we were in Binghamton NY the last few runs probably seem nearly identical. And it’s only the euro that trended north not all guidance. Lot of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 19 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Yeah but this past weekends system pretty much trended much slower and more amped over time, no? So that one kind of broke the mold. I know the game Saturday night was expected to possibly contain rain but obviously ended up dry When did it trend slower/Amped? Euro has tended to be over amped about day 4-6. Then sometimes over corrects and trends slightly more amped again in the short range. I’ve noticed that cycle several times the last couple years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 There’s a piece of energy coming out of Siberia in the next 24 hours that looks to me we would be better if it somehow went poof. Without it our trough might not be as deep. It wasn’t there about three days ago on the runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: When did it trend slower/Amped? Euro has tended to be over amped about day 4-6. Then sometimes over corrects and trends slightly more amped again in the short range. I’ve noticed that cycle several times the last couple years. I’m just saying in general...models earlier in the week last week seemed a little more flat and getting overrunning rain in here that was going to effect the game this past Saturday night. But it ended up slowing down and amping a bit more and we were left dry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We’re still at a range where these shifts are noise. Only feels significant because we are on thin ice in west track scenarios needing everything to go right. But if we were in Binghamton NY the last few runs probably seem nearly identical. And it’s only the euro that trended north not all guidance. Lot of time Past history has tended to show that when the Euro remains stubborn, the other models eventually cave to it. Not scientific, just a gut feel thing around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 In other words who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 GFS knows. I’m riding the GFS until the Euro beats it into submission 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like icon is north of 18z through 102 and a touch warmer More ridging in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: More ridging in the midwest. Plus seems a bit slower... almost looks like no one is getting frozen this run besides the usual far N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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