Kmlwx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Bob Chill said: Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. People also seem to have thought process that surface temps are the only thing that determines ratios. It is entirely possible (which I know you know) to have poor ratio snow and have the surface be 18 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Dews are ridiculous sat night before precip arrives. Low single digits.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol I need to be reminded of which storm that was. I have vague memories of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 TWC is on board LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Near WSW stuff right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Warm front snow struggles to get 10:1 no matter what. High ratio stuff is with ULLs or CCBs. 8:1 is usually a good ratio to set expectations with warm fronts. The beginning can be high ratio but everything starts riming and clumping before pellets. Are we getting that late feb west track snowstorm we had a few years ago. That was nuts lol JB pulled out the 1982 storm which might actually be a good analog other than that was a colder airmass although this one this weekend is pretty decent airmass too. Capital Weather Gang did an article on that storm a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, it is a bit lighter, but for now, I’m more concerned with the cad. See that’s where I’m looking at the other ... the cad doesn’t worry me. It’s the depth of that trough in the center of the country. It was deeper this time and the low went north a bit, hence the lighter early precip. Been around long enough to know to not worry about op runs at 5 days, but just being honest the 18z wasn’t the look I had hoped to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. Was that the one? I remember a storm around Feb 20-21, 2015, where the CAD held on longer than expected and we got around 8” before flip to snizzle. I think there was a separate storm where snow fell in the teens but we were disappointed because rates were poor (bad snow growth?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. Snow was as heavy at times as the jan 16 blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 It looks like the timing on the storm has changed a lot over the last two days now comes in Saturday late instead of Friday night . is this good or bad I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: It looks like the timing on the storm has changed a lot over the last two days now comes in Saturday late instead of Friday night . is this good or bad I don't know If we take the GFS for what it is, it’s a Saturday morning/midday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: It looks like the timing on the storm has changed a lot over the last two days now comes in Saturday late instead of Friday night . is this good or bad I don't know Seems like a good thing if the cold high is slowing it down and pushing it south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 22 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: People also seem to have thought process that surface temps are the only thing that determines ratios. It is entirely possible (which I know you know) to have poor ratio snow and have the surface be 18 degrees. Exaclty. 800mb temps increase throughout the precip during WAA events. As those temps rise snowgrowth changes for the worse. Best dendrites/ratios happen at the beginning and deteriorate. Unlike our last warmfront... surface won't be torched and nothing will be lost to rain/melt. Love when snow sticks from the first flake. Less than half of our events are like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 That is a pretty nice cold blast after the storm passes as well. Single digits west of town. It would turn whatever falls into concrete. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Exaclty. 800mb temps increase throughout the precip during WAA events. As those temps rise snowgrowth changes for the worse. Best dendrites/ratios happen at the beginning and deteriorate. Unlike our last warmfront... surface won't be torched and nothing will be lost to rain/melt. Love when snow sticks from the first flake. Less than half of our events are like that Seems like the rare times we do have 18 degree snow, the flake size sucks and it's basically pixie dust, so I agree people have the wrong impression about this. We almost always overestimate ratios here. They seem to usually end up 10:1 or below on average. Only things more overhyped are ice storms and inches-per-hour expectations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: That is a pretty nice cold blast after the storm passes as well. Single digits west of town. It would turn whatever falls into concrete. Was thinking the same. Wintry weekend for sure into early next week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: That is a pretty nice cold blast after the storm passes as well. Single digits west of town. It would turn whatever falls into concrete. If this weekend works out we have a decent shot at an extended period of snow on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Seems like the rare times we do have 18 degree snow, the flake size sucks and it's basically pixie dust, so I agree people have the wrong impression about this. We almost always overestimate ratios here. They seem to usually end up 10:1 or below on average. Only things more overhyped are ice storms and inches-per-hour expectations. Truth. We usually have a long period of "sand" during our legit cold events that don't have strong upper level dynamics. Pretty much my least favorite kind of snow. The only time we get really nice 12-15:1 snow is with a classic track miller A and/or solid upper levels. I remember the Feb 14 storm. "Part 1" was full of crappy snow growth and low ratio snow before the sleet show. Later in the day when the ULL passed there was colorado rockies conditions and the surface temps weren't even that cold. Close to freezing iirc. Clippers usually have high ratio snowfall but they are also often moisture starved so not very memorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 During the last hour or two of last weeks snow there was some really good high ratio stuff. Really nice dendrites falling up here at 30 degrees. Snow piled up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Even though 18z gefs mean snowfall is a little less than 12z, it's actually a better run. Basically unanimous support for 2-6" of snow. 12z had a cluster of whiffs. 18z has none. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That was one for the books. May never happen again. Most of the snow fell in the teens and it never got above freezing. I can't think of a single other west track storm that had temps like that. That was sometime later in Feb. 2015, right? Extremely cold at the start, we got like 6-8" snow then ice and some rain/drizzle. But that was only toward late day and at night after many hours of snow. Yeah, that was quite an unusual setup, not something you get here that often. Thing is, we weren't done with winter after that event, either (the early March ice then a final moderate snow event was icing...literally!...on the cake of a 4 week period!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Here's the visual. Pretty sweet man. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icefishingrocks Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the visual. Pretty sweet man. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Mean QPF on the 18z gefs for the event is the juiciest I've seen yet. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Given how the last storm went, I’d be fine with this trending further south all week. That ensures cold temps get in and stay in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Here's the visual. Pretty sweet man. Nice axis of precip Ninja’d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Nice axis of precip Will take half of that as snow and get maybe 5 inches....nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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