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January 18th Event


stormtracker
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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Been to Rangely when skiing the loaf. They always have a ton of snow. They don’t quite get the huge totals from coastals though as on the southeast faces of the mountain range. But they hold snowcover due to the cold being protected from coastal warm ups. Having been to rangely and n Conway on the same trips often (combining wildcat and loaf) Rangely will always have more snow otg but in a big storm Conway gets the bigger dump. Trade offs. 

Conway still has snowcover much of winter so I think I would sacrifice the crazy pack Rangely has from November to May...literally they usually still have a 2 foot pack in late April even...to get those crazy coastals. I still want to be able to root for those and watch the crazy death bands on radar.

I like the idea of Conway because it’s a larger town. Gotta be a few good bars. Think Rangeley only has about 1200 people. 
 

Just to the north and west of Auburn-Lewiston would probably be pretty nice. Close to Portland, the ocean, the ski areas.

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14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Gfs ticked south a little. Looks decent along mason Dixon line. 

LWX has gone up to 1-3" for Washington County on the point and click forecast.  Think your latitude and elevation might mean you do a little better than me on this one.  Feeling pretty fortunate to be looking at a second snowfall in what has been a +10 January.

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Nams juiced up ....especially 3k .

What a mess up in Northern Md tomorrow.  Never hits freezing.  Roads will be a mess up here.

That lull between the am snow and the midday stuff worries me, too much time to let the warm air in aloft. 

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Oz Guidance was collectively better.  Qpf increase was almost across the board. Even the Hrdps which didnt have much if any morning snow band has 1 now.

Yeah that Oz Guidance is a real wizard with the snow ;) (sorry, couldn't resist. Now back to storm focus) 

So is the amount of moisture we get gonna kinda be a nowcasting thing? (how well do the models do with dry air and such ahead of time?)

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26 minutes ago, Jebman said:

You guys are gonna get pasted!

Jeb if only that were true.  We'd all synchronize a mass Jeb Walk in your honor.  If sheer willpower could make it happen, we'd have a BECS inbound.  Can't even believe I'm up past 2:30 watching the radar fill in from the SW, even though much of it is likely not reaching the ground.  If we get anything more than a dusting in NOVA that will be success...  Those guys ivo Parr's ridge stand a far better shot at something at least conversational.  

Currently 25F/20dp just N of Vienna

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25 minutes ago, RDM said:

Jeb if only that were true.  We'd all synchronize a mass Jeb Walk in your honor.  If sheer willpower could make it happen, we'd have a BECS inbound.  Can't even believe I'm up past 2:30 watching the radar fill in from the SW, even though much of it is likely not reaching the ground.  If we get anything more than a dusting in NOVA that will be success...  Those guys ivo Parr's ridge stand a far better shot at something at least conversational.  

Currently 25F/20dp just N of Vienna

I was just looking at the weenie radar and it looks pretty good! I haven’t looked at reality, but it’s 3 in the morning so who cares?

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