WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, mattie g said: But if the models don’t matter, then why assume the low will be as strong as modeled? I assume you mean that their depiction of WAA precip doesn’t matter because they often have trouble with it. Just trying to clarify. They have the ability to get the strengths of high and lows correctly but they are still bad with where the low will go. Up until about 5/6 years ago and all 2000-2015 we suffered with models which at the 72 hour mark were moving the low from off the SC coast to thru the eastern lakes. At least we don’t have that anymore. I can rely on the strength off the lows or highs for forecasting but the nuances, such as path travelled or waa still elude the models. Considering the incredible technological advances of the last 20 years, models are still woeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 59 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: Can we just stick a fork in this thread? Maybe models will trend in the right direction, but let's just move on to Jan 24th, start that thread. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk So all of our analysis goes to pot? That’s the way events roll. You don’t shut off a thread because an event doesn’t work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: This thread has been on repeat all winter. Chasing unicorns Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk then dont read it. just because YOU have no interest, doesn't mean the thread gets shut down. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Once again there’s a post-mix/sleet/ice period of snow for an hour or two on the euro for 12z, a bit better/wider area looking than 06z. So I guess mid levels are getting better temps there as the storm passes through. Give me trends that way the rest of the day please, only needs to get a bit better to get I95 in central/NE MD a short second bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, CentralVaNATS said: This thread has been on repeat all winter. Chasing unicorns Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Take this over to banter and stop ruining things for those of us that actually analyze the situation and make productive posts. 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: 3k with a decent snow band between 6-8am or so Saturday morning. Quicker then most guidance Yeah, but seems like NAM and Euro are on the same page. Wonder what run it'll be when the GFS folds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k with a decent snow band between 6-8am or so Saturday morning. Quicker then most guidance Look at soundings though... lots of dry air at the BL... makes me wonder how much of that will actually hit the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 hours ago, mappy said: i often forget how DC centric this subforum is. If the majority of I-95 aren't seeing snow, they could care less. meanwhile, even the euro gives me some snow. suck it haters. Yup, if it's north of BWI, it doesn't matter it seems at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Hi res Euro has an inch in the usual spots with a little ice on top. It then dry slots us. It also has that same thin band of snow that the NAM has through NOVA and DC on Saturday morning. I still think it is under doing the CAD. As it does take the Shenandoah Valley above freezing for around 12 hours before the bottom drops out again. We are then below freezing until Wednesday afternoon. So plenty of time for my half inch glacier to form. Here is the 10-1 map from the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, paulythegun said: Hey! I know you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Per 3k purely snow to sleet to dry slot with no zrain for central Md . I'd take that . In general that’s how most of these work. Snow then sleet snow the sleet and freezing rain then tapers to drizzle with no real snow eroding rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I think the mentioned dry air is Not a problem but rather an assist via evap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 18z solid again for a wintry event on Saturday. This would be another accumulating snowfall in an otherwise flawed pattern. Technically would make back to back weeks of flawed storms/patterns giving us accumulating snow. Nickel and dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 WB 18z GFS Winter Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Gfs is horrendous. But I’ll take it all the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Not hating the GFS or NAM for Deep Creek. I’m rooting for over performing WAA (especially for the rest of the forum) and surprise upslope on Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The roads in the city around me are already brined. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The roads in the city around me are already brined. Same. It’s a total waste and I wish they would stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The roads in the city around me are already brined. Same on 395 and many roads around here. Gotta use up that budget! Such a waste of $ and terrible for the Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, H2O said: Same. It’s a total waste and I wish they would stop If only there was someone on the payroll that could time the traffic signals. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, H2O said: Same. It’s a total waste and I wish they would stop Need to make sure they get their budget next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 What exactly is that stuff they put on the roads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: What exactly is that stuff they put on the roads? Mixture of beet juice and something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 31 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Mixture of beet juice and something else Ok, so honest question probably showing my ignorance, but how is that harmful to the bay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok, so honest question probably showing my ignorance, but how is that harmful to the bay? It's not. At all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok, so honest question probably showing my ignorance, but how is that harmful to the bay? Salt brine as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Do they do this stuff in snowier locations? Like New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plow'n Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Do forget do this stuff in snowier locations? Like New England? It's big time in Maine, I do know that. Our sales rep is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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