stormtracker Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Nothing will top the Feb 07 sleetstorm that turned into a glacier. My friend was an xray tech and she worked two 18 hour days from slips and sled accidents. Lol ICON is .5 qpf all frozen. I'm sure some is sleet. Models agree most of the area is below freezing for most of the precip. Mid 20s the night before will freeze the ground. Could be an interesting storm for not much snow Yeah, I this point, I've given up on the snow angle. I'm in for ice now. Don't gotta drive in it for work anymore, powerlines are buried....sh*t, why not. come on, at least 1/4 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2020 Author Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: I feel like we’ve been in this situation with the ICON before. Anyone know if it has a cold bias? The difference this time is that it has support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, nj2va said: It’s hard to put much stock in the ICON but it gives Deep Creek over 1” of frozen QPF. I’m just rooting for an interesting event knowing that it won’t be all snow. Do you have a rough estimate of how much of that falls as snow vs other mixed/icy precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Do you have a rough estimate of how much of that falls as snow vs other mixed/icy precip? No...very limited ICON info on TT so basically only know if its liquid or frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Not much to go on with the ICON being such a new model. GFS is likely too warm. Given the strength and depth of that high plus source region, likely to see temps on the colder side of guidance and hanging in longer. Temps not an issue. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 cant rely on the globals to analyze a CAD setup like this. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Icing events are among the most difficult patterns to predict in the MA. Low 30s won’t cut it for optimal accretion. Ideal is less than 30F and rates come into play. Strength of the WAA and resilience of the CAD. I’ve never seen any model handle it perfectly in this area, not even the colder solutions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, nj2va said: It’s hard to put much stock in the ICON but it gives Deep Creek over 1” of frozen QPF. I’m just rooting for an interesting event knowing that it won’t be all snow. Me 7 Springs Sun-Wed so gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Euro laughs at our talk of ice (unless you’re well west) and gives us a light rainy chilly day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 It will be interesting to see what happens. Latest sleet and snow forecast WB GFS 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Latest NAM WB 12k winter precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 36 minutes ago, mappy said: Euro laughs at our talk of ice (unless you’re well west) and gives us a light rainy chilly day True, but I live in west...Sw of Frederick. WB EURO 0z. Note also there is nothing of consequence on the EURO snow or sleet maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 25 minutes ago, Weather Will said: True, but I live in west...Sw of Frederick. WB EURO 0z. Note also there is nothing of consequence on the EURO snow or sleet maps. Thanks I looked at the model run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: Latest NAM WB 12k winter precip maps. Thanks for the maps. With the mesos getting into range today/tomorrow, it’ll be interesting to see the trend in precip & temps. 6z GFS juiced up in western MD (now drops 0.4” of frozen QPF). Hopefully that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The high res NAM is a bummer for folks around DC. delays the precip long enough that the low levels warm. It's out of its range but that is a scenario that I could see happening as I've seen it happen occasionally in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, usedtobe said: The high res NAM is a bummer for folks around DC. delays the precip long enough that the low levels warm. It's out of its range but that is a scenario that I could see happening as I've seen it happen occasionally in the past. Temps aside, there’s just no precip on the 3k NAM. It’s a showery cold front passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I am not posting the 12K NAM or 3K NAM. Not worth it....as indicated above it's a bummer all around. Although I really don't want ice and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Temps aside, there’s just no precip on the 3k NAM. It’s a showery cold front passage. its barely that lol what a debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Different look to the NAM this morning. Less WAA, more frontal passage. Right in tune with the way this winter has been going. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Icon a touch further south with WAA precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Icon is a bit colder too. Has Dc at or below freezing at 00z Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 12z ICON holds serve, tad colder with snow transitioning to freezing rain. CAD holds on until 03z Sunday. Significant icing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 NAM is still not in trustworthy range. But one can’t feel good about this thing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Temps aside, there’s just no precip on the 3k NAM. It’s a showery cold front passage. Exact phrase I threw out 2 days ago. Hate that it’s come to that. Not there yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: NAM is still not in trustworthy range. But one can’t feel good about this thing right now. ive been chasing a damn lakes cutter all week hoping it throws some WAA snow out ahead of it. I'm going down with the ship. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Not sure of the icons track record with temps but gives most of the area over .50 qpf with temps below freezing. Northern and western tier stay in the 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 The GFS looks a bit better to me. Little colder and more precip at least for Baltimore to NE MD anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 GFS looks wetter when it matters for most in the region, especially NE MD. It's 0.5"+ frozen QPF for western MD. 'Trended' wetter the past two runs out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Gfs is actually pretty thumpy. Especially for C and NE MD. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs is actually pretty thumpy. Especially for C and NE MD. It looks pretty mixy though doesn't it? Doesn't look like much, if any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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