Ji Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 53 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Now we just need to get the models to shift those 700 mb winds back toward us. I’m assuming a weaker less wound up low would do that. Regardless, perhaps the euro starts the trend back at least a little in our direction. is it time to bring back the weenie of the year tournament lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Going to be in Deep Creek this weekend. Are they still in the game on this one, or is it looking weak out there as well? What would need to change to give a mostly snow event? Been an awful year for the ski resorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 @psuhoffman is the best poster...not in the Mid Atlantic Sub Forum but the entire Board. His combination of ridiculous meteorology knowledge and his ability to teach it where its understandable(hello isotherm/HM) and then his sense of humor to boot. And i dont say this lightly because Bob Chill is easily in the top 5 on the board. We are pretty lucky to have what we have here....the philly board has Ralph Wiggum lol:) 14 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Euro has a snow/wintry mix and it looks like it just ends abruptly by 00z. no rain at least lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro has a snow/wintry mix and it looks like it just ends abruptly by 00z. no rain at least lol how much falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Just now, Solution Man said: how much falls? looks super light.....and then we get this...how many times do we see this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Read that book before, glad I am leaving for skiing in Tahoe on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 This low is gonna be sitting over Lake Superior before this is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Ridge is slightly weaker on the euro vs 0z, so it’s a bit better. Just a bit better direction on the WAA precip and it would be 2-3” for MD. Just missed us and gets Philly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Latest WB 12Z EURO Freezing Rain Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 25 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: Going to be in Deep Creek this weekend. Are they still in the game on this one, or is it looking weak out there as well? What would need to change to give a mostly snow event? Been an awful year for the ski resorts. We've got a house out there and will be there this weekend. Agree that this season has been pretty terrible there...probably around 20-25" so far when they average north of 110" for the year. Way too much would need to change for this to be all snow. A lot of variables at play for how much frozen precip we get there (WAA precip amounts, how long the low level cold sticks around) but it does seem likely we'll see a frozen event there. Will guess we see a little snow then sleet/ice. Probably some rain in the afternoon, depending on how long the cold hangs on. Once the winds shift from the NW overnight into Sunday, we'll see upslope snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: looks super light.....and then we get this...how many times do we see this Thanks Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Ill have what the weather channel is having 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 8 minutes ago, mappy said: Ill have what the weather channel is having Brace for the “wind” Bettis will probably have his whiteout goggles on for partly cloudy 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z 12k NAM holds serve, bit more energized than 12z. Moderate snow to start then to mix, break then freezing rain. Not bad considering where we were 24 hours ago. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z NAM could certainly give those from Loudoun to central MD a couple inches before the transition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 OK...this really is my last post... So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic. This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result. That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM. Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 I guess we just got NAM’d? Or are we still waiting for a better NAMing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 It's the NAM but it's cold and very frozen for much of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: OK...this really is my last post... So the main mid level WAA is still aimed well to our northwest but look at the secondary mid level vorticity maximum and kink in the flow aimed at/attacking the CAD in the Mid Atlantic. This is the kind of thing the globals are not going to pick up at 4/5 days out and is a realistic option to hope for a better result. That is what is fueling the little thump on the NAM. Not saying it is right...we been through this dance with the NAM before...that that is a realistic way to eek out a back door win in this situation. This is why the globals should be looked at it with a grain of salt in the medium range with CAD situations. I like to use the medium range globals to give a general pattern depiction then go on what we know to happen in these situations. Even the mesoscale models struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Should never count things out until you see the whites of its eyes for situations like this. Around here all it takes is a glaze on roads, trees, and power lines in the 20s to have significant impacts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 The NAM depicts the 95 corridor in NOVA holds on to snow for over 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 at 60 hours the 3k nam is waaaaaay drier than regular nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z ICON all rain 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: at 60 hours the 3k nam is waaaaaay drier than regular nam As per usual since 12k NAM has always had an Uber wet bias and 3k fixes that substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: 18z ICON all rain What are you looking at? The model doesn’t show sleet/freezing rain. I’m seeing a good CAD all the way past 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: What are you looking at? Solid CAD signature in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18z ICON slowed the precip down a bit, However, keeps a solid CAD feature in place. Signal is there for a decent icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said: That will be all ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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