WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, H2O said: For you out there, sure. But again, people closer to I-95 are allowed to fret all they want. I could be wrong, but I don’t think it will be a problem there, DC north. Gonna be evaporational cooling to go along with a stout cad setup. I could be wrong, but think precip is the real worry. Now if it’s afternoon before any meaningful precip makes it, that’s another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I don’t think we get much good evap off of it, a degree or two only, as mildvsurge is stout. It’s just that we are 25ish at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I could be wrong, but I don’t think it will be a problem there, DC north. Gonna be evaporational cooling to go along with a stout cad setup. I could be wrong, but think precip is the real worry. Now if it’s afternoon before any meaningful precip makes it, that’s another story. Nope. Its two-fold. We need temps to be as low as can be because we will warm nose sooner. Precip has to come in as early as possible before we flood with torching air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Why do so many areas have a winter weather advisory for an inch of slush when there's no rush hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why do so many areas have a winter weather advisory for an inch of slush when there's no rush hour? because the snow falling tomorrow morning will fall at temperatures in the 20s which always causes problems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why do so many areas have a winter weather advisory for an inch of slush when there's no rush hour? Maybe they like reading our storm threads and figure if they post an advisory it will improve morale in the thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Why do so many areas have a winter weather advisory for an inch of slush when there's no rush hour? So just because there is no rush hour, the people that still have to work and be out tomorrow morning shouldn't be advised that travel will certainly become treacherous? When it snows tomorrow morning it will not be slush - it will stick and freeze to the roads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: So just because there is no rush hour, the people that still have to work and be out tomorrow morning shouldn't be advised that travel will certainly become treacherous? When it snows tomorrow morning it will not be slush - it will stick and freeze to the roads I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met. eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory " Winter Weather Advisory A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning. If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches). " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met. eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory " Winter Weather Advisory A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning. If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches). " Thanks and have a good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 never thought i'd see the day where someone complains about an advisory being issued. usually its everyone whining about when they get issued and how the snow depends on it. this place. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: never thought i'd see the day where someone complains about an advisory being issued. usually its everyone whining about when they get issued and how the snow depends on it. this place. Its the same person complaining about the advisory that posted the snow depth maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAM is going to make a couple more people happy. At least they will see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Its the same person complaining about the advisory that posted the snow depth maps i know who it is yoda, i can read. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, mappy said: i know who it is yoda, i can read. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NAM 3k soundings are much more interesting on the 18z run vs 12z. 700mb frontogen is better over MD and there is strong vertical motion in the dendrite growth zone near 500mb. Warm layer near 850 still near freezing though. Big rimed conglomerates? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: NAM is going to make a couple more people happy. At least they will see some snow. That initial wave seems very fast. Maybe an hour of snow for most. 3K still looks like a virtual non-event for almost all but maybe the northern tier. Of course, any little bit of ice can cause major problems on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 18Z 3K NAM WB Winter Precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NAM 3k soundings are much more interesting on the 18z run vs 12z. 700mb frontogen is better over MD and there is strong vertical motion in the dendrite growth zone near 500mb. Warm layer near 850 still near freezing though. Big rimed conglomerates? Still wouldnt be surprised if folks are pinging soon after initial flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I think the key is going to be that initial band in the morning...hopefully its a solid 2-3 hour period of snow and drops a quick 1" or 2"..but on the other hand, my fear is that the air will be pretty dry and itll just be pixie dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Eric Horst's map seems realistic for the area. An inch (maybe 2) along the MD line then pingers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, snowfan said: Eric Horst's map seems realistic for the area. An inch (maybe 2) along the MD line then pingers. Cranky has 2-4" for the same areas. I think its possible to get up to 4" but it would be snow/sleet combined. Unless the NAM is right, then we are lucky to see an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Cranky has 2-4" for the same areas. I think its possible to get up to 4" but it would be snow/sleet combined. Unless the NAM is right, then we are lucky to see an inch or so. I'll be in stewartstown tmrw, so hoping that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, snowfan said: I'll be in stewartstown tmrw, so hoping that's the case. youll be fine. will probably do better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I thought there was specific criteria that has to be met. eta: https://www.weather.gov/lwx/WarningsDefined#Winter Weather Advisory " Winter Weather Advisory A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for any amount of freezing rain, or when 2 to 4 inches of snow (alone or in combination with sleet and freezing rain), is expected to cause a significant inconvenience, but not serious enough to warrant a warning. If the event is expected to impact the Baltimore/Washington metro areas during rush hours (4-9 am or 2-7 pm on weekdays) forecasted snow totals of one inch will necessitate the issuance of a winter weather advisory. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Weather Advisory for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (3-5 inches). " There is the potential for some ice accretion. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 133 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 MDZ503-504-VAZ028-030-031-052-053-501-502-505-506-WVZ052-053- 180245- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0003.200118T1200Z-200119T0000Z/ Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Fairfax-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley-Jefferson- 133 PM EST Fri Jan 17 2020 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 7 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday. Precipitation will begin as snow before transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. Precipitation will change to rain late in the day. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && $$ Hope that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Its already a win for me though, Baltimore County rec and parks cancelled all activities for tomorrow so no work for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It's not all snow in the A.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I heard we had a winter event tomorrow. I stocked up. Anyone want to come over? Having a Fresca party... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I heard we had a winter event tomorrow. I stocked up. Anyone want to come over? Having a Fresca party... Nice...Let me have that Devils Milk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: I heard we had a winter event tomorrow. I stocked up. Anyone want to come over? Having a Fresca party... Hate to see what happens to the lone can of Fresca when the door closes. I see a prison pounding in its future. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 23 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's not all snow in the A.M. This is a good catch, but the idea of that initial band having some sleet in it is an outlier solution, and the associated forecast soundings have a warm layer that is just barely above freezing. Something to watch for in the evening runs, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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