WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 GFS brought higher precip close to pa border and overall is wetter to the north of us. Need another 75 miles. Trying to see positives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS brought higher precip close to pa border and overall is wetter to the north of us. Need another 75 miles. Trying to see positives looking at pivotal weather for soundings, my area 12z 23 degrees, snow 18z 27 degrees, snow (warm nose is there but its realllllllly shallow) 00z 34 degrees once precip is out of area i may never flip to rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yep..I just looked as well since it was showing 4+ in Northern Harford and it's close but like u said its verbatim snow. Nam at 18z is sleet but it looks very borderline. Maybe we back into a mostly snow/with minimum sleet event I got $20 that says u will never go above 32 btw i'm hopeful we stay mostly snow, but you know how these setups go... always in real time. hahahahaha, we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Way less precip out here in Western Loudoun, but temps never look to get above freezing even out this way. Anemic precipitation totals and maybe that is why it doesn't warm as much. Little snow and then light sleet and light rain.. but nothing too exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Considering I’m not expecting much frozen, if any, the models today at least keep me interested up until now cast time. That 1048 High and CAD are going to keep it colder than the models are predicting IMO. If we score any action down here, the N and W crew could do real well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 This one is all about the precip ... and whether we get any 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Forgive my ignorance - where are people seeing the init with 1048? Is this the 18z init? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 hour ago, mappy said: looking at pivotal weather for soundings, my area 12z 23 degrees, snow 18z 27 degrees, snow (warm nose is there but its realllllllly shallow) 00z 34 degrees once precip is out of area i may never flip to rain I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: I’ve been thinking This for a couple days as the Cad (as often is the case) is only showing up now. good luck. Can you work some magic and get some precip to show up. Right now for me the euro is the wettest model. That’s never a good thing because it’s usually dry, and usually right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: Forgive my ignorance - where are people seeing the init with 1048? Is this the 18z init? GFS initialized at 1046 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you work some magic and get some precip to show up. Right now for me the euro is the wettest model. That’s never a good thing because it’s usually dry, and usually right. Not sure I’m totally buying the banded structure of first overrunning precip. ti my eyes decent lift in the dead zone says it should squeeze something out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Point and click forecast for me is 2-4” of snow/sleet and 0.1” ice. I’m excited. Hopefully we get some decent upslope snow showers since I’ll flip to rain eventually for a bit late Saturday afternoon and evening before the hammer drops around midnight Saturday into Sunday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umdterps29 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: Point and click forecast for me is 2-4” of snow/sleet and 0.1” ice. I’m excited. Hopefully we get some decent upslope snow showers since I’ll flip to rain eventually for a bit late Saturday afternoon and evening before the hammer drops around midnight Saturday into Sunday. We need more of a thump to hit us while it's still frigid up top and at the surface so that we can get a few fresh inches for the slopes saturday morning before it flips. Hopefully by the time it flips it will be early afternoon and time to head inside for some relaxing and a few libations, and then we can head back out Sunday morning to a little more fresh powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 The warm air is stout and the cold high stout so will be interesting observations as they battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 39 minutes ago, umdterps29 said: We need more of a thump to hit us while it's still frigid up top and at the surface so that we can get a few fresh inches for the slopes saturday morning before it flips. Hopefully by the time it flips it will be early afternoon and time to head inside for some relaxing and a few libations, and then we can head back out Sunday morning to a little more fresh powder! Yup, at least it’s interesting winter weather! Will be on the slopes tonight, tomorrow morning, and Sunday. My guess is we are already sleeting by 7a tomorrow. Freezing rain late morning. And plain rain by 3pm. LWX just posted WWA for everyone west of 95. Pitt hasn’t posted for the mountains yet but should be as part of the afternoon package. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 WWA issued! Up to an inch of snow; .1 of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NWS seems to have increased totals a bit with the most recent update: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I need 2.3" to break 10" thats my bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Today’s forecast of low 40s for a high is not working here, currently 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Today’s forecast of low 40s for a high is not working here, currently 37. Really... My point and click is for 35. I currently sit at 30.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1048 HP per 12z initializations. Roar. Feeling good about 2-3” before the changeover N&W of the big cities. Especially up here. Still think we get dryslotted before we see much rain. Seen this song and dance before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 10 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Today’s forecast of low 40s for a high is not working here, currently 37. It was supposed to be 40s today? Lol I'm lower as well: currently sitting at 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 32.8 imby at 2:00pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Sitting at 37/12 in Montclair. If we aren’t getting to 40 i doubt anyone els in the DMV is outside of DCA (probably around 70 there lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I think NWS had in their package late yesterday that low 40s was to be high for today and Saturday. If I’m wrong then apology at prime heating hour DC area averages 37 currently, dews at 11, a skull crushing baro of 30.70 and brisk northwest winds. That’s a lot of favorable conditions for an event 12 hours away. So whatever might switch that would have to be a strong surge of mild and strong surges produce good results. i still think we snow sleet and freezing rain and then taper to drizzle with no steady snow eroding rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Some poked fun at Ava's 2-4" but maybe not a bad call . i know 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Y’all can stop worrying about temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Y’all can stop worrying about temps. For you out there, sure. But again, people closer to I-95 are allowed to fret all they want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Fantastic agreement among the hi-res models for the initial band of snow at some point during the 7-10am or so time frame (earlier for those further west) followed by a break for a few hours before the main batch of precip arrives with snow changing to sleet to (maybe a period of freezing rain) to rain through the mid/late afternoon hours (with the temps taking extra time to crack the freezing mark north of I-70). I still believe that the morning snow band is going to cause a lot of road problems with the temps in the 20s. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I'm more concerned about precip than temps....let's get that initial band as heavy as possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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