motsco Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Do you use Eastwood Co . rust incapsulator ? I've used the 2 step process for years on 80s turbo Buicks under carriages with great results. never tried it - and please tell me you don’t drive them in the nasty . i know your aviator and i’ve always wanted one - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 12 minutes ago, Plow'n said: It definitely does!! Now, some of my subs with older trucks that haven't been properly "de-salted"... trashed!! yup- sorry i must get back on topic. according to the amount of the good stuff put on the roads - looks like a inch of snow and .34 of rain coming saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: What about the VV at 500 or 700 mb . Do they come into play at all ? It all comes into play but the main driver for WAA is getting enough mid level winds aimed at the cold over us to create lift. If the winds aren’t adequate it just slowly displaces the cold without really creating enough vertical velocity to create heavy Precip. The mid levels are important because that’s where the snow growth zone is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said: 1% beet juice and sodium chloride in water. Sodium chloride has been documented to overwhelm local qater treatment and aquifers. Sodium chloride is what has screwed our well, and many of our neighbors. The process with the state has been a pain and it’s going to costs us thousands. The water issue was never disclosed at selling, nor is sodium chloride a regular contaminant that is checked during standard water tests. Note to future buyers on well water: spend the extra money to test your well for contaminants. Call your county’s geologist (all should have one) and see what they know about the area you’re looking at. *sorry for longer off topic post. NAM looks juicy, I like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like 00z GFS is same... yay sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 @losetoa6 also...get enough lift and suddenly you create a feedback loop. Warm air is lifted, cooling and condensing causing heavy precip which sets off dynamic cooling processes and mixes colder air back down countermanding the WAA. That’s when we get “the thump”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 46 minutes ago, Plow'n said: It definitely does!! Now, some of my subs with older trucks that haven't been properly "de-salted"... trashed!! even tho i’m in the auto repair business- my customers have no idea what they are driving their cars on, once the juice is laid. i have many many big estimates because of the liquid death . and when i see all the cars at the car wash waiting to be washed in acid after a snow storm - i’m ruining my career by telling them not to drive in it and not to use a car wash. errrr. worst is when the liquid dries and the wind blow the shit blows around and gets all over everything. nasty! and people think their sinuses are bad from pollen, lol. i just can’t figure out why sand isn’t used like it was in the day? do people really need to go out after a snow storm when according to the news all the grocery stores are sold out the day before. ? i guess now days people don’t like their families. i know days when i was plowing days and days straight i wished i was home with my wife and kids and dog enjoying the beautiful snow, instead of sitting in the god darn truck paying the bills and admiring those who got to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Looks like 00z GFS is same... yay sleetWait that was advertised 2 days ago. Still trying to extrapolate freezing rain, rain and no snowSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 New euro on this nothing burger?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Just got up to let the dog out and it is 35 degrees with moderate snow flurries in Severna Park right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 WB EURO 0Z Winter Precip. Icing event in NW DC suburbs looking likely after about an inch of snow. Increased on EURO this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 3k WB 6z NAM says enjoy a couple showers, sleet pellets and flurries. Moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6z WB GFS precip maps. Still shows icy mess for North and West suburbs of DC. Still NE MD bullseye of light snow accumulation before changeover to ice there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 NWS Official Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 So my question to the experts is whether the NAM is a red flag that the dry cold air will make this a nonevent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: So my question to the experts is whether the NAM is a red flag that the dry cold air will make this a nonevent? This has been a nonevent for days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, dailylurker said: This has been a nonevent for days. For you, sure. Not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: This has been a nonevent for days. You may be right. But I got up at 345 to catch a train that is now an hour late because of a tree blown down on the track so I decided to look at the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Anyway, Ava going 2-4 along PA line, 1-2 into Baltimore, less for those who live in the deserts like Crofton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 Anyway, Ava going 2-4 along PA line, 1-2 into Baltimore, less for those who live in the deserts like Crofton 2-4 along the M/D line? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: 2-4 along the M/D line? Wow. I haven’t talked to her directly, but I don’t think she’s using the NAM at all. It’s not far fetched, if you look at euro and gfs precip amounts, .4 is all along the PA line. Her thinking, on air, is that those places hang on to the cold longer and stay snow longer. I think it’s a good forecast up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So my question to the experts is whether the NAM is a red flag that the dry cold air will make this a nonevent? It's not the dry air- that could actually help if the front end precip came in hot and heavy. If the best lift is delayed(or mostly north), the strong warming aloft/retreating cold air mass means time is not on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 So do the mesoscale models have a track record of forecasting lift better than the globals? 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: It's not the dry air- that could actually help if the front end precip came in hot and heavy. If the best lift is delayed(or mostly north), the strong warming aloft/retreating cold air mass means time is not on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 I notice the RGEM is not enthusiastic either so seems like a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 It's hard to ignore the 3K NAM and Euro when they are on the same page. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 E 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: It's hard to ignore the 3K NAM and Euro when they are on the same page. EURO and GFS are on the same page. Mesoscale models like NAM and RGEM are not buying the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 44 minutes ago, mappy said: Anyway, Ava going 2-4 along PA line, 1-2 into Baltimore, less for those who live in the deserts like Crofton Ok, good luck with that. Enjoy your inch of slop followed by a few chilly days, then another cutter (like I said 5 days ago). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: E EURO and GFS are on the same page. Mesoscale models like NAM and RGEM are not buying the event. GFS looked like a much more significant winter event than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: GFS looked like a much more significant winter event than the Euro. 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: GFS looked like a much more significant winter event than the Euro. EURO had less snow but more sleet and freezing rain than GFS. The mesoscale models basically have little precipitation of any kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2020 Share Posted January 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Ok, good luck with that. Enjoy your inch of slop followed by a few chilly days, then another cutter (like I said 5 days ago). Someone is rather salty this morning, don’t worry your cold rain will wash away your tears 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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